The Minnesota Vikings play the San Francisco 49ers on Monday, and it’s going to take a monumental effort for the Vikings to pull off the upset. The 49ers have been one of the most dominant teams in the league not just this season, but for the past few seasons.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan has concocted an incredible offensive scheme, and general manager John Lynch has amassed a lineup filled with stars that has made one Super Bowl and three Conference Championship games the past four seasons.
On the surface, it would seem like a true David vs. Goliath scenario. One that would require a Herculean effort to pull off. While it may seem like the Vikings would need the help of the gods to pull off an upset of this magnitude, remember: This is the NFL, and it’s really hard to win games. It’s even harder to do it consistently.
The 49ers found that out the hard way last week, as they were upset by the Cleveland Browns. The law of averages would make you think it can’t happen again. There’s no way that the 49ers could be upset by lesser teams in back-to-back weeks, right?
Stranger things have happened, and there are ways Minnesota could pull off the seemingly impossible. It won’t be easy, but nothing ever is in the NFL.
Confuse Brock Purdy
It may not seem like it with all the publicity he’s gotten, but Brock Purdy is still a rookie in terms of games started in the NFL. Coming into Monday’s game, Purdy has made just 11 starts – 14 if you count the three games in the 2022 playoffs.
Purdy is still a young quarterback and young quarterbacks can be harassed, confused and forced into mistakes. Especially when they’re playing a defense like the one defensive coordinator Brian Flores likes to employ.
If the Vikings are going to pull an upset on Monday against the 49ers, one of the biggest things they’re going to have to do is throw the kitchen sink at Purdy. Not just with pressure – we’ll get to that in a moment – but by disguising what they’re doing.
By giving Purdy multiple looks and not showing their hand until the last moment, they can force an otherwise solid quarterback into looking like the rookie he still effectively is.
Purdy is not a quarterback who has shown to be prone to turnovers or poor decision-making. However, those were traits that were fairly prevalent in his tape from his days at Iowa State. If the Vikings defense can confuse Purdy and make that version of him show up on Monday, it will go a long way towards giving Minnesota the chances they need to come away with a win.
Force Purdy to make mistakes
Not only do they need to confuse Purdy, they need to force him to make mistakes.
One of the biggest factors in Purdy’s early success as the 49ers quarterback is that he’s not costing his team by making the big mistakes. So far in the 2023 season, Purdy has thrown 10 touchdowns to only one interception. In his entire career so far, Purdy has only thrown a grand total of five interceptions.
He’s been very careful with the ball, and the 49ers have thrived because of it. However, as we previously mentioned, this has not always been the case for Purdy.
In Purdy’s junior year with the Cyclones, he finished second in the Big 12 conference with nine interceptions thrown. In his career with the Cyclones, Purdy threw 33 interceptions, throwing at least eight interceptions in every season. More than the specific number of interceptions, it was when the interceptions came that killed Purdy’s NFL draft stock.
Coming out of his sophomore season in Ames, there was a not insignificant amount of buzz around Purdy and the possibility of him being a high draft pick if he was able to continue progressing and smooth out some negatives in his game – namely his decision-making.
Unfortunately for Purdy, he seemed to regress in that aspect in his final two seasons, making a number of terrible throws, particularly whilst under pressure.
To Purdy’s – and Shanahan’s – credit, he has made that leap in the pros. Purdy plays a much more calm, cool, and collected brand of football today than he did for Iowa State. If the Vikings can get to him repeatedly, we may see him slip back into his old habits. These are habits that will put the Vikings in prime position to pull the upset.
Bring continuous pressure
One great way to confuse and frustrate a young quarterback is to make him stare down pressure. There are a number of ways for a defense to manufacture pressure, but the easiest way is to bring the blitz. So far this season, no team in the NFL blitzes more than Flores and the Vikings defense. And it’s not particularly close.
The problem there is that they aren’t getting home with the pressure particularly often – especially considering how often they’re trying. Lucky for the Vikings, the 49ers offensive line isn’t particularly good outside of Trent Williams.
Outside of Williams, each of the 49ers starting offensive linemen grades towards the bottom of their respective positions. That’s going to put even more of the onus on Purdy. Not only to point out the blitz pre-snap to make sure the protection can handle it, but to be able to make plays out-of-structure post-snap.
The Vikings are going to blitz, they are going to blitz often, and they’re likely going to get into the backfield. If they’re going to pull off the upset, they’re going to need to be able to finish off the blitz and bring down Purdy, or force him to get flustered and throw the ball up for grabs.
If they can do that a few times on Monday, they’ll be putting their offense in great position – and with their propensity for turnovers, they need all the help they can get.
Play sound, fundamental football
Confusing the quarterback is great. Forcing turnovers and putting your offense in a good spot is fantastic. But it doesn’t mean anything if you can’t do anything with it. That’s been the Vikings’ biggest problem all season.
Far too often, they aren’t doing anything with their possessions, and in fact doing the opposite – giving the other team the chance to do something. The story of the 2023 season to this point for the Vikings has been the bevy of turnovers. If they’re going to pull off the upset on Monday, they absolutely can’t let the 49ers have extra possessions.
But just simply not turning the ball over is likely not going to be enough to get the win. In addition to protecting the ball, they’re going to have to put up points. And their best chance to win would be to do so in a way they haven’t been able to yet this year: on the ground. The Vikings rushing attack has yet to score a touchdown via a rushing attempt (though Mattison does have two touchdown receptions).
If the Vikings offensive line can continue to run block effectively, and if the running backs can take advantage of the blocking and score, the Vikings may have a chance. The 49ers are an explosive offense and can score in bunches. In theory, the best way to neutralize that is to not give them the ball.
Run the ball, run the clock down, and hope your defense can do enough to keep the game in reach. It won’t be easy, but it can be done.
