The bracket is set, the ball will soon tip and the madness is just about here.
But when the dust settles, which of the 68 teams will make it to the 2023 Men’s Final Four in Houston? Kansas, Houston, Purdue and Alabama remain the favorites after Selection Sunday, though they’ll each have their own tests ahead of them.
Still, the top-seeded teams tend to have easier paths to the first weekend in April than anyone else.
So who has the toughest road to the Final Four?
Let’s break it down by region using KenPom projections to see which of the elite teams in each has their work cut out for them.
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— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 12, 2023
East Region: No. 5 Duke
EAST REGION ODDS
I think Tennessee just got a fairly beneficial draw? pic.twitter.com/VuXjBdZiFT
— Will Warren (@statsbywill) March 12, 2023
Congrats to No. 5 seed Duke. You just won nine straight games to end the season, nabbed an ACC tournament title and head into the NCAA tournament with tons of momentum. As a reward you get a region stacked with the likely National Player of the Year in Purdue’s Zach Edey, Big East champion Marquette, a Kansas State team that has overachieved all year and a Memphis program that just stunned Houston in the ACC tournament title game.
Oh, and before all of that, the Blue Devils have to play No. 12 Oral Roberts and scoring machine Max Abmas, who has created havoc at the tournament before by leading an upset of No. 2 Ohio State in 2021.
The Blue Devils are +850 at FanDuel Sportsbook to advance out of the East Region.
South Region: No. 4 Virginia
SOUTH REGION ODDS pic.twitter.com/4Qi60QvVlc
— Will Warren (@statsbywill) March 12, 2023
Selection Sunday could’ve gone significantly better for the ACC co-champions and it’s worth wondering just how different things would’ve been had Virginia defeated Duke in the ACC tournament title game.
Alas, KenPom gives the Cavaliers a 4.19% chance of reaching the Final Four and it’s not hard to see why. Virginia has a tough opening round matchup against Furman in which it opened as 5.5-point favorite, but even getting past the Cinderella candidate doesn’t make life easier for UVA.
The top half of the South Region features No. 1 overall seed Alabama, a West Virginia program with a Hall of Fame head coach in Bob Huggins and a Maryland team that’s toppled giants like Purdue this season.
That’s all before looking at the bottom half of the bracket, where Arizona, Baylor and Creighton are lurking.
Virginia is +1000 to win the region and reach the Final Four.
Midwest Region: No. 5 Miami (FL)
MIDWEST REGION ODDS
Image 1: Pitt > MSU
Image 2: MSU > Pitt pic.twitter.com/xmqo7zICH1— Will Warren (@statsbywill) March 12, 2023
Miami (FL) was leading an Elite Eight game against Kansas last year before the Jayhawks pulled off one of their many comebacks en route to a national championship.
This time around it’s going to be even more difficult for the Hurricanes.
They’ll have to make it past No. 12 Drake before likely facing No. 4 Indiana, and either No. 1 Houston or No. 9 Auburn —two battle-tested contenders who’ve proven all year long they can handle any opponent.
Should Miami get through that gauntlet, the bottom of the bracket features a Penn State team that would be considered a Cinderella contender if it weren’t a Power 5 team, a Texas A&M program that’s extremely under-seeded and a Texas team that just drubbed Kansas in the Big 12 tournament.
Miami (FL) is +1600 to reach the Final Four.
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West Region: No. 1 Kansas
WEST REGION ODDS
Image 1: Arizona St > Nevada
Image 2: Nevada > Arizona StKansas lowest Final Four odds for a 1 seed in entire KenPom era pic.twitter.com/i4qm0E2H9o
— Will Warren (@statsbywill) March 12, 2023
Let’s set aside for a moment how little sense it makes that Kansas ended up in the West Region and instead look at the road ahead the Jayhawks now face.
Should the defending champions make it past Howard, they’ll meet the winner of Arkansas-Illinois. Which means playing either one of the most athletic team in the country (the Razorbacks) or a school that still holds a grudge against Bill Self for taking the Kansas job two decades ago.
After that it’ll have to get past the likes of UConn, Gonzaga, UCLA and a TCU team that already waxed the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse this year.
Kansas is +320 to make the Final Four again, but that’s an oversimplification. The road to get there is full of teams that could stop the Jayhawks before they even get rolling.
The Jayhawks have the lowest odds of any No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four as they begin their title defense.
