The 2024 MLB wild-card race has certainly been a roller coaster, and while the postseason field is now totally set in the American League, there are still two spots to be claimed in the National League.
As things currently stand, those final spots are occupied by the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, which both sit at 87-71 and have a tiebreaker over the fourth-place Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72).
There’s only one hangup: The Mets and Braves conclude the regular season with a doubleheader against each other on Monday. Arizona, meanwhile, has just two more games remaining against the San Diego Padres, who have already punched their ticket as a wild card.
While it may seem like that will spell doom for one of them, there are actually quite a few scenarios where both can clinch an MLB postseason spot.
Here’s a brief rundown of how it could happen.
Diamondbacks lose out, Mets and Braves win next 2, split doubleheader
This is easily the most intriguing possible scenario here as it would establish something of a prisoner’s dilemma for the division rivals entering the doubleheader. A split would lock Arizona out of the wild-card race as Atlanta and New York would finish one game ahead of it if they win their next two games ahead of the doubleheader against the Royals and Brewers respectively.
Diamondbacks split, Mets and Braves split next 2, split doubleheader
Because of the tiebreakers both teams hold over Arizona, they actually don’t even need to win both of their games prior to the doubleheader in the event Arizona splits its next two. If both teams split those matchups and then split the doubleheader, they would both still get in ahead of the Diamondbacks thanks to that tiebreaker.
Diamondbacks lose out, Mets and Braves split next 2, split doubleheader
New York and Atlanta don’t need to win their games on Saturday and Sunday to avoid the necessity of a tiebreaker. Even if they split those games, a doubleheader split would still get both into the field if Arizona drops both games to the Padres this weekend.
Diamondbacks win out, Mets and Braves win next 2, split doubleheader
Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, their fate is not in their hands due to the tiebreak. Even if they win their final two games, wins on Saturday and Sunday from the Braves and Mets followed by a Monday split would create a three-way tie and leave Arizona on the outside looking in.
