The 11-5 Miami Dolphins face off against the 10-6 Buffalo Bills in the most anticipated matchup of Week 18 with this game determining who wins the AFC East and secures the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs.
The Dolphins are coming off a terrible loss to the Baltimore Ravens, losing 56-19. They also lost star linebacker Bradley Chubb for the season to an ACL tear. Miami comes into this game with a plethora of players on the injury report from both the offense and defense.
Buffalo enters this game on a four-game winning streak following their bye week. They’ve been climbing the standings after going 6-6 in their first 12 games. However, they haven’t been overly impressive in their previous two wins.
The Bills are 2.5-point favorites over the Dolphins. This is an interesting point spread, considering the Dolphins are playing at home and have more wins. Many experts have turned on the Dolphins in response to the multitude of big game losses on their record.
While the Dolphins are dealing with key injuries on both sides of the ball, they still have enough talent to go out and earn a victory over their longtime division rivals. No doubt the 48-20 loss in Week 4 has forced Mike McDaniel to draft up a new game plan for taking on Buffalo.
Here are four reasons why the Dolphins will achieve victory on Sunday night.
Dolphins have been great at home this season
The Dolphins are 7-1 at home coming into Week 18 with their only loss against the Tennessee Titans in Week 14. This was a game where Miami failed to close the deal on what looked like a secure win, as the Dolphins were up 27-13 with 4:39 left and went on to lose 28-27.
This loss shocked the Dolphins enough for them to attack the things that went wrong, and it showed in their next two games. Miami followed up the loss to Tennessee with a 30-0 shutout of the New York Jets in Week 15 and a signature win against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16.
Miami is averaging 34 points per game while playing at home. If they can get off to a fast start, it often results in an offensive showcase. It’s an offense that put up 70 points against the Denver Broncos in Week 3. They’re as tough of a home team as the NFL has to offer, and they’ll have extra motivation to be at their best with everything on the line.
Dolphins will have opportunities at turnovers
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the focal point of the Bills offense. He’s a physical threat to escape the pocket and break loose for long runs. He also has arguably the strongest throwing arm among quarterbacks in the NFL.
However, Allen has been turnover-prone throughout his career. He’s thrown 16 interceptions in 2023 which is the second-most in the NFL behind Washington’s Sam Howell. There are usually a couple of throws Allen makes during a game where the defense has an opportunity at a takeaway.
The Dolphins were without cornerback Jalen Ramsey in the first matchup against Buffalo. Ramsey has made a quick impact since making his debut against New England in Week 8. The former All-Pro has recorded three interceptions since his return. It’s taken just half the season for Ramsey to earn a spot in the Pro Bowl.
The absence of Ramsey’s counterpart cornerback Xavien Howard will present problems against Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Ramsey hasn’t exclusively shadowed receivers this season. Instead, his focus has been on the right side. This has allowed teams to move their star receivers away from Ramsey. Baltimore found success when they moved Zay Flowers in this exact way.
Limiting Ramsey to one side of the field might have to change if Diggs finds success early. If Ramsey is allowed to shadow Diggs, it may increase the Dolphins’ chances of securing that game-changing turnover.
If safety Jevon Holland (questionable) is able to play, he’ll also have a big role in the Miami secondary. He has been effective in both defending passes and serving as the second line of defense when a play out of the backfield gets passed the front seven. He’s forced three fumbles this season along with a 99-yard touchdown return against the Jets in Week 12.
Good matchup for De'Von Achane
While the Dolphins are known for their electric passing attack and home-run-hitting offense, it might work in their favor to prioritize the running game against the Billa. A dominant running game will keep the clock moving and swing the time of possession in Miami’s favor. This might increase the chances of Allen taking more risks and putting the football in harm’s way.
Dolphins rookie running back De’Von Achane has been working his way back from a knee injury that he suffered earlier this season. He’s started to look like the player who decimated the Broncos in Week 3.
Achane was a bright spot for the Dolphins in the blowout loss to Baltimore, rushing the ball 14 times for 107 yards (7.6 yards per carry).
Achane has rushed for 744 yards and seven touchdowns on an outstanding eight yards per carry this season. Injuries have slowed down what could’ve been a legendary rookie campaign for the speedster out of Texas A&M.
In the Dolphins Week 4 matchup against Buffalo, Achane carried the ball eight times for 101 yards and two touchdowns on a spectacular 12.6 yards per carry. Buffalo’s defense has given up 4.6 yards per carry this season, ranking them fifth-worst leaguewide in that category.
With Raheem Moster ruled out, Achane will get the bulk of the carries. He’ll have an opportunity to be the dominant player he’s proven himself to be, and it couldn’t come at a better time.
An impressive performance by Achane will force the Buffalo defense to ease up on the quarterback pressure and allow Tua Tagovailoa to sit back and make the correct throws throughout the game.
Miami will put pressure on Josh Allen
Even though the Dolphins have lost linebacker Bradley Chubb for the season, they still have multiple players in the front seven who can disrupt the pocket.
Defensive linemen Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler have both gotten after the quarterback consistently. Sieler has recorded 9.5 sacks on the season while Wilkins has eight. The Dolphins are tied with Buffalo for the third-most sacks in the league at 53.
Linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel has been an unexpected star for the Miami defense with his ruthless pursuit of ball carriers. He’s stepped up on the edge in the absence of Jaelan Phillips. He’ll have a big role in this game and will be ready to perform.
Linebacker David Long Jr. leads the Dolphins in total tackles (103). Long was brought over in free agency in an attempt to strengthen the linebacking room for the 3-4 lineup. He’s stepped into the role beautifully. He’ll be an important player against Buffalo’s run-and-pass attack.
The depth of the Miami linebackers will be tested in their first game without Chubb. Look for Jerome Baker, Duke Riley and Emmanuel Ogbah to have increased snaps. If any one of them can step up for a big performance, it’ll help tremendously in stopping Buffalo drives and allow Tagovailoa and the offense to control the tempo of the game and maintain a lead.
