Earlier this NBA season we predicted that this year’s trade deadline would be a pretty quiet one. After the Pacers moved to get Pascal Siakam, there just didn’t seem to be too many major moves left to make on the trade market.
Now, here we are on deadline day. Quiet probably isn’t quite the word to use to describe the day’s events considering that we saw the number of trades over the last 24 hours hit double-digits. With that said, deadline day definitely didn’t trigger the same sort of excitement we’ve seen over the last few years.
Last season we got the Kevin Durant deal the night before the deadline. The year before that the Domantas Sabonis trade happened. And, of course, you’ve got the James Harden trade there, too.
The 2024 NBA trade deadline lacked those big names and that excitement. There were a few reasons why.
Let’s dive into them.
All the big moves were already made
This is the first and, I think, the biggest reason we didn’t see a ton of major players moved as we got closer to the trade deadline. All of the big names had already been moved.
Coming into the season, everyone had the same list of names we thought were going to be traded. Damian Lillard, James Harden, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby. Give or take a few more names, that was the crux of most people’s lists.
They were all moved way ahead of the deadline. The big names were immediately off the table. No more popped up in their place. It’s that simple.
Most teams didn't have much to spend
This is the other key piece to the puzzle. There just weren’t many teams who had that much to spend on talent.
If you look through the trade deadline tracker we put together here, there aren’t too many deals revolving around lightly first-round picks. Most of them are player-for-player trades, player-for-cash trades or trades involving second-round picks.
Most of the juicy stuff teams use to coax other teams away from their talent had already been spent on doing just that. It’s been this way for the last few years. There’s a heavy concentration of first-round picks currently held by the Thunder, Spurs, and Jazz. Teams like the Magic and Knicks could be included there, too.
We knew at some point that would start to slow down the trade pipeline. We’re seeing the effects of that today. A lot of these teams just don’t have the assets necessary to spend on fringe All-Star players like Dejounte Murray or Kyle Kuzma.
Teams are still aiming to compete
The Bulls are the poster child for this category.
There are lots of teams who, maybe five years ago when the NBA Play-In Tournament didn’t exist, would probably be willing to sell off their best for picks. But now that the No. 10 seed has a chance of actually making the playoffs, teams are willing to hold on to even the thinnest sliver of hope.
That means teams like Atlanta, Toronto, Chicago and more are less willing to give up picks. It makes for a more competitive league, but also a less juicy trade deadline.
Teams are hoarding picks because of the new CBA
Finally, we can’t forget about the NBA’s new punitive luxury tax policy. That has to be considered here.
Once a team crosses a certain threshold in the luxury tax, they’ll be barred from using the NBA’s tax-payer mid-level exception and won’t be able to make certain trades. There’s a ceiling on how much depth their teams can have if they spend too much.
Because of that, teams are prioritizing picks. It’s why the Nuggets made a rare (but brilliant) trade for multiple picks from the Thunder in the middle of the NBA Finals. Teams need those cheap salaries on the roster. Giving them away now just isn’t smart strategy.
So, of course, teams that actually have draft picks to spend now are going to spend them wisley.
