One of the most popular NFL draft analysts, ESPN’s Todd McShay dropped his latest mock draft on Tuesday. It’s an interesting look at what might happen later this month in the 2023 NFL draft.
Here are a few quick takeaways from McShay’s projections.
The trade near the top
McShay projects the Indianapolis Colts to trade up from No. 4 to No. 3 in order to guarantee they land the QB of their desires. That would be Florida’s Anthony Richardson in this scenario.
The move up just one spot is always a curiosity. The rationale that another team (Tennessee at 11 as an example) would move up to jump in front is convincing enough to make it happen. The Cardinals drop from third to fourth and still get the same player, plus adding extra picks (in this case a third-rounder this year and a 2nd in 2024). It’s a no-brainer from their perspective.
We have seen moves like this before; Chicago moved up one spot to land QB Mitchell Trubisky back in 2017. For the Colts’ sake, this projected move had better turn out more favorably.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba clearly the No. 1 receiver
The first wideout off the board is Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Ngijba. He’s projected at No. 11 overall to the Tennessee Titans. There isn’t another wideout projected until Boston College’s Zay Flowers to Seattle at No. 20.
Interstingly, both Smith-Njigba and Flowers are thought of as primarily slot options, though they have played quite successfully at times on the outside in college. They’re both quite different styles of receiver from the third WR off the board, Quentin Johnston of TCU at No. 22 to the Ravens.
That Johnston pick is one of my personal favorite matches of team need and player skill in the entire draft.
Bucs trade up for Will Levis
The second trade in McShay’s mock sees Tampa Bay jump up from 19 to 14 to land Kentucky QB Will Levis. It cost the Bucs 19, a third-rounder and a fifth-rounder to move up those five slots.
As was the case with the first trade, this is about Tampa Bay getting in front of other potential suitors to select Levis. Normally projected well within the top 10, Levis appears to have firmly settled into being the fourth QB off the board. The Bucs value him that much more than Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, who is the next QB to get projected — at No. 23 to the Minnesota Vikings.
Just like the Cardinals earlier, New England lands the same player they’d likely take at 14 a few spots later. Tennessee OT Darnell Wright is a great fit and even better value at 19 and with the extra picks.
A Strange 2nd rounder for the Chargers
With the No. 54 pick, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected to select Penn State TE Brenton Strange. It’s a curious pick; Strange is typically projected in the fourth or fifth round and even gets omitted from some full seven-rounders at times.
Projecting such a bold move is inherently gutsy, and I agree with McShay that Strange is unfairly overlooked. But to take him one spot ahead of Iowa’s Sam LaPorta as the fifth TE off the board is still a little wild to see.
By the way, the conjecture about the Lions taking a TE at 55 to replace T.J. Hockenson doesn’t hold water; the Lions traded Hockenson because their offense didn’t require a premium pass-catching TE and the post-trade result proved it.
