It would be great if every NFL draft prospect were an easy book to read in the evaluation process. Some are; there are many players whose draft evals are pretty cut and dry, like an English professor reading “Spot’s First Easter.”
There are some prospects every year where it feels like the book is written in a different language in every chapter. No amount of film study, interviews or projective analysis reads definitively or cleanly. These are players who might look like a fantastic future NFL player from one viewpoint but not worthy of anywhere close to that level of draft love from another.
Here are four players who fit that bill in the 2023 NFL draft. They’re all books that are difficult to read as prospects.
Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Evaluating Smith was the impetus for this entire article. In a quick film review for my scouting profile on Smith at Lions Wire, I saw more things that gave me pause on making him a top-20 talent in the class.
To make the long story short, Smith is a power-oriented run defense specialist in the undersized body of a speedy stand-up pass rusher. His game reminds me more than a little of Barkevious Mingo when he came out of LSU as the No. 6 overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft. But Smith is some 20 pounds lighter, two inches shorter and significantly less productive in college; Mingo had more sacks in his sophomore season (15) than Smith accumulated in 38 career games at Georgia.
I’m unsure how a player of Smith’s size (or lack thereof) can manage being a power-to-speed EDGE against better blocking and more advanced schemes in the NFL. Yet he’s really skilled at what he does; Smith understands his limitations well and has the trump card of being an insanely fast and explosive athlete. If the NFL team that drafts Smith can unlock his athletic potential, it’s easy to envision him being a much better, more productive version of Mingo at the next level.
Adetomiba Adebawore, DL, Northwestern
Adebawore was generally perceived as a middle-round prospect after a solid but unspectacular career playing primarily DE at Northwestern. Then came his tour de force Senior Bowl week, where Adebawore kicked inside and kicked serious butt. His quickness and violence in his hands worked much more effectively inside at tackle than they did on the edge, where Adebawore was often a little heavy-footed and slow to the point of attack.
The move inside is a prudent move for Adebawore, but it’s not a panacea for being a “tweener”. His Northwestern game film is littered with No. 94 struggling to get off the blocks of tackles and not being able to anchor on the edge; now he’ll face (generally) stronger interior linemen and won’t have the benefit of as much space to operate in to make moves.
I can see it working out for Adebawore in a Geno Atkins kind of way in the NFL, a Pro Bowl-caliber interior rusher. I can just as easily see him being the next Christian Covington, a journeyman rotational DT.
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
There is so much to like about Flowers. He’s electrifying with the ball in his hands, both slippery and speedy. The 5-9, 182-pounder is stronger than he looks. He adjusts well to the ball in the air. There might not be a better receiver in the draft at transitioning to runner once he secures the catch. I can absolutely buy the first-round hype Flowers continues to receive.
Yet there are some nagging questions that come along with Flowers. While he’s built like an optimal slot receiver, he primarily played outside at BC. When he did kick into the slot, his quickness advantage and lack of precision or consistency with his routes didn’t work nearly as well as playing outside. Flowers might have the smallest catch radius of any wideout in this class, too. It’s reflected in his drop rate of over 10 percent that’s way too high and a contested catch rate hovering around 50 percent that’s too low.
Flowers could wind up being a smashing success if he can better adapt to being a slot receiver. It’ll need to happen quickly; the shelf life of 5-foot-8 outside receivers with drop issues isn’t long for the NFL. The team drafting Flowers is banking on him becoming a lot better at things he didn’t do well in college. And I can absolutely see Flowers doing just that, but it’s a risky proposition.
Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Back in the 2017 NFL draft, I was a big fan of Toledo TE Michael Roberts. A 270-something-pound in-line TE with gigantic hands who demonized opponents in the red zone and in the short-area passing game, Roberts wasn’t a great blocker and had the suddenness of an understaffed Five Guys preparing your cheeseburger. I was willing to overlook the obvious faults because of his size and receiving accomplishments for the Rockets.
Flash forward to 2023 and Darnell Washington. The Bulldogs standout has some superior overall athleticism to Roberts; that’s plainly obvious in watching even a handful of drives of Georgia football. Washington is more dynamic and lithe when flexed out in the slot, almost beyond comparison. But there are some troubling similarities, too.
Despite testing very well at the NFL Scouting Combine, the suddenness with which Washington gets off the line or engages in blocks in space is not great. Much like Roberts, Washington often blocks stiff-legged and too upright, negating his power. He caught just 45 passes in college as a role player in the Georgia passing game and thrived as a runner after the catch, something that’s more difficult to envision at the next level.
Roberts was a (deserving) fourth-rounder who quickly and unfortunately washed out due to serious injury issues. Washington is bandied about as a potential top-25 prospect. Is Washington that much superior of an athlete? Probably. There are reservations I cannot shake, however.
