The Minnesota Vikings are arriving at a pivotal point in their team-building process. With the team starting 1-4 this season, there will be some exceptionally tough decisions that need to be made sooner rather than later.
Those decisions start with their performance against the Chicago Bears this Sunday at noon CST. With the two teams fighting to stay out of the basement of the NFC North, there is talk of how much of this season is salvageable for the Vikings, who had higher expectations for this season than this putrid start.
The Vikings’ offense is a perfect indication of the frustrations of this team. They are a top-ten offense in yards but only 16th in points. 11th in first downs but dead last in fumbles lost and turnovers. Have the second-most yards and the most touchdowns in the passing game but 29th in rushing yards and one of only two teams (Pittsburgh Steelers) to not have a rushing touchdown.
Facing the 30th-ranked scoring defense should be an opportunity for a get-right game, but to do that, they will need to follow these four keys to victory.
Keep airing it out, even without JJ
No matter the metric, when it comes to the Chicago Bears defense, there is one very blatant constant: they cannot defend the pass.
Whether it’s pass DVOA, dropback EPA, yards allowed, touchdowns allowed or net yards per attempt, Chicago is second-worst behind only the Denver Broncos.
The loss of Justin Jefferson will temporarily push everyone up the food chain in the passing game. Jefferson was fourth in targets with 53 through the season’s first four games. It will be up to quarterback Kirk Cousins to get everyone involved in the offense, which he did pretty well against the Kansas City Chiefs. Four players outside Jefferson (Jordan Addison, Brandon Powell, T.J. Hockenson and K.J. Osborn) had six targets or more, so it’s possible. But it will be an uphill battle without arguably the most dominant non-quarterback in the NFL.
Someone to look for this week, somewhat surprisingly, is Alexander Mattison. The Bears are dead-last in passing yards per game from running backs, giving up 60.9 yards.
Do NOT abandon the run
Despite their deficiencies against the pass, the Chicago run defense is not bad. They’re not necessarily good, they’re 20th in defensive rushing DVOA, but they are 11th in yards per attempt. So, while they may not be efficient, they are effective in the run game.
With Jefferson out, Minnesota can not afford to abandon the run and become one-dimensional. No matter how bad a defense is, if a team becomes one-dimensional, they will not be successful in the NFL. The Washington Commanders found that out the hard way as they had to abandon the run early and ended with an embarrassing 40-20 loss against these Bears, with 29 total yards on the ground.
Minnesota can’t afford to become one-dimensional without their number-one receiver option. Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers’ effect may not be felt immediately, but an efficient day from them could be the difference between the offense moving at will or sputtering and struggling to get going.
Turn red zone trips into touchdowns
This Minnesota offense has not had much trouble moving the football down the field. They rank fifth in yards per drive with 36.2 yards a drive. The teams in front of them are the Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Each of these teams ranks in the top 7 in offensive DVOA and is one of the more effective offenses in the league.
The Vikings’ offense has the potential to be among them, but they have to execute more of their opportunities. One of the first steps is to convert in the red zone. Out of the 16 red zone opportunities in the first five games, they have scored touchdowns in only eight of them, that 50% mark is ranked in the bottom half of the league.
The pass-catchers in Minnesota have all scored in the red zone, but the problem lies in the run game. In the red zone, the Vikings have 14 carries for 24 yards and no touchdowns. They must get more production from the run game when the field condenses. Minnesota also ties the Las Vegas Raiders for the most turnovers in the red zone this season. This leads me directly to my next point.
For the love of God, hold on to the football
Fumbles and turnovers can’t continue to be an issue with this team if they wish to salvage anything from this season. Minnesota has had five opening drives. Minnesota has punted twice, which is normal, but they have turned the ball over three times.
To start their lone win against the Carolina Panthers, the Vikings marched 70 yards to face a third-and-goal from the five-yard line. Some points, any points would jumpstart an offense that desperately needed a spark after three slow starts in a row. Instead, Kirk Cousins stares down the out-route to K.J. Osborn, and cornerback Sam Franklin intercepts it and takes it back 99 yards to flip the momentum to Carolina.
That’s what these turnovers do, especially early turnovers, they put this team behind the eight-ball. Now, the offense is caught playing from behind from the start. No matter how talented, if you are always having to claw back into the game, you will lose far more games than you will win.
If the Vikings want a shot at making a run at the playoffs, they must finally cut out the costly mistakes.
