The Minnesota Vikings are on the road again as they head to Paycor Stadium to face the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday at noon CST.
Minnesota’s offense has been in a rut as of late. In the last three weeks, they’ve had three of their five worst games offensively, according to expected points added. If the Vikings want a shot at the playoffs, they can’t afford to continue their current pace on that side of the ball. There won’t be many chances to win a game 3-0 in today’s NFL.
They’re going up against a Bengals team that just had one of their best games on defense as they held a solid Colts offense to less than 300 total yards.
Not to say that this isn’t still a flawed defense, it is. They are near the bottom of the league in both EPA per play and defensive success rate
After two-plus games of below-average quarterback play, Josh Dobbs has been replaced by veteran Nick Mullens now that he is off of injured reserve.
If the Vikings want to get back on track on the offensive side, here are four keys that they will have to follow.
Emphasis on the edges (again)
After having to deal with the likes of Maxx Crosby (two sacks, five pressures and two quarterback knockdowns) and Malcolm Koonce (two pressures and two quarterback knockdowns), the Vikings’ offensive line will have to fend off Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard off the edges.
Hendrickson and Hubbard’s 18.5 combined sacks are only 1.5 away from the Carolina Panthers’ 20 total sacks on the season. Both of them can potentially be game-wreckers if you are not careful. Hendrickson’s 13.5 sacks have him tied for third in the NFL right now with Crosby, Jacksonville’s Josh Allen and Danielle Hunter.
Expect some chip help from tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver to help Christian Darrisaw and backup tackle David Quessenberry keep Mullens upright.
I re-watched the game, and and man o man, Hendrickson get's off the snap so damn fast… https://t.co/WvY2YRfcRl pic.twitter.com/Q5gUWngCmh
— Lawrence Owen (@Colts_Law) December 11, 2023
Time for Ty?
Alexander Mattison is struggling with a high ankle sprain on his right ankle. If he is unable to go, that means it’s time for Ty Chandler to make his first start of the season.
Chandler has started to receive more snaps to give more of an explosive component to a Vikings run game that has been boom-or-bust as the season has gone along. Minnesota has somehow balanced being 27th in rushing EPA/play with being ninth in rushing success rate. The run game hasn’t been efficient, and it hasn’t been consistent, but it’s gotten enough done to not derail the offense.
With Chandler as the full-time back, which some Vikings fans have been clamoring for, there is a hint of optimism for the future of the running game. Part of that is the unknown aspect that makes any young player’s first couple of starts interesting. How will Chandler handle being the guy? How will he respond to being relied upon to keep the offense on track instead of a sparkplug?
But there’s also the fact that we know some of the impact that Chandler can bring to the offense. He does have that explosive nature where he can be one-cut and gone. He has that second gear in open space where if he gets to the second and third levels, he can go the distance. It’s about getting him to do the little things. The pass protection, the chips coming out of the backfield, etc.
The Bengals are a perfect first test for him because they have been putrid against the run thus far. They have the sixth-worst rushing DVOA and are third-worst in yards per attempt. Chandler has a chance to cement himself as a long-term option in this offense.
Don't Mull(ens) over it too much
Quarterback Nick Mullens Mullens is to make his first start since December 20th, 2021. The game will be on the road amid both teams fighting for playoff spots.
There’s enough pressure on the moment as is. Let me be clear: This is not a plea for training wheels. Mullens is in his seventh year in the league. He can make the big boy throws when he needs to.
However, Kevin O’Connell just watched his offense go from being one of the most dangerous against Atlanta and New Orleans to being a complete liability and mustering up one field goal against Las Vegas last week. From being top-ten in both EPA/dropback and passing success rate to being fifth- and fourth-worst in those metrics, respectively.
O’Connell has proven he knows when and how to be aggressive, so I don’t expect him to throw Mullens to the wolves. But he knows that he needs more from the quarterback position, and he needs it quickly.
If Mullens is your answer for the next five games, bringing him along slower may be the best course of action. A few easy completions to start will allow him to get into a rhythm. The talent at the pass-catching spots is good enough to make a play after the catch (more on that in a second).
Once Mullens gets into a rhythm, then we can start pushing the ball downfield. The Bengals play single-high safety coverage 61% of the time, just above the league average. Force them out of that single high and make them rely on their zone, where Minnesota can hold on to the football and dominate the game through time of possession.
J.J. and T.J.
Let’s try this again: Justin Jefferson is back and ready to be a consistent part of this offense again. After having to traverse being rushed to a hospital for his chest injury, the former All-Pro is back again to help right this offense’s ship.
Jefferson had only 13 snaps against Las Vegas, but even in that limited time, he had two receptions on three targets for 27 yards. O’Connell will not wait to feature his superstar in this offense, and he shouldn’t. Through his six games played this season, quarterbacks have a 121.0 QB rating when targeting him, and this isn’t just some dinks and dunks near the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target is 10.7 yards. If Jefferson brings it in, it’s usually to move the chains.
Expect Jefferson to be utilized in a myriad of ways that help set up not only his targets in all three phases of the field but also other guys like Addison to find space deep or Hockenson to find space underneath.
While Jefferson was away, Hockenson came to play. He leads all tight ends in targets and receptions and is second to only Kansas City’s Travis Kelce in yards and receiving first downs. With Jefferson back in the fold, Hockenson is now a secondary pass-catcher option in the offense, a position no defensive coordinators want to find themselves in. Mike Hilton has been one of Cincinnati’s best cover corners, allowing a 72.4 quarterback rating on 55 targets. If Jefferson lines up in the slot, which he is quite comfortable doing, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo will have to choose which player he chooses to highlight in the play.
