On ESPN’s Monday Night Football, the Minnesota Vikings take on the Chicago Bears at 7:20 p.m. CST on ESPN and ABC.
The Bears are coming off a heartbreaking collapse to the Detroit Lions in the final five minutes of the game.
Minnesota’s five-game win streak fell short of a sixth to a surging Denver Broncos team that took advantage of any opportunity the Vikings gave.
With a bye week looming for both teams, Minnesota and Chicago face off in a divisional game which has huge playoff implications for Minnesota.
Firmly in the playoff race, Minnesota controls their fate headed down the stretch. They’re in a spot to get a solid win just before the bye week and heal up right before their second-half run for the playoffs.
To do that, they will need to follow these keys on the offensive side of the football.
Get Hockenson the ball early
Justin Jefferson is progressing towards returning sooner rather than later, but it’s unlikely he will return on Monday.
That’s good news for the final stretch of the season. He gets that extra week to heal that nagging hamstring injury and another week to build rapport with quarterback Josh Dobbs.
But there is still the matter of Monday night and getting to the bye week two games above .500.
T.J. Hockenson is nursing a rib injury of his own as he continues to be the primary target in the passing game in this post-Jefferson world. Since week six, the first week without Jefferson, he has led all tight ends in targets (63), receptions (45) and first downs (26). During that span, the Vikings also have the second-best EPA/dropback in the NFL.
Letting Jefferson sit through the bye is probably best for both the Vikings and Jefferson. But it does mean that Minnesota will rely on Hockenson one more time to keep this passing game going.
Get Dobbs on the move
The most captivating part of Dobbs’ game is his ability to create outside of the structure of the offense. It’s the one part of the offense that Minnesota did not get with Kirk Cousins.
It’s not just his ability to get out of the pocket either, it’s also the strength to shake off would-be sacks and tacklers to extend the play. While Dobbs can work in the pocket, he is the biggest threat when he is on the move.
Since he took the reigns in week nine, Dobbs has led all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns and second in rushing yards. Most of these yards have come from scrambles when the play breaks down, adding another element for defenses to worry about.
Getting Dobbs on the move accentuates one of the features that have made him such an asset to this offense and forces the defense into uncomfortable situations.
Don't abandon the running game
Chicago, despite being 29th in points allowed, is second in yards allowed per rush and first in yards allowed per attempt. For advanced metrics, they rank fourth in EPA allowed per rush and third in rushing success rate.
This Bears team has shown real flashes of dominance against the run this season but the Vikings cannot let up. Whether that means more touches for Ty Chandler alongside Alexander Mattison or getting Dobbs involved in the run game, Minnesota can not afford to abandon the running game.
The Vikings have lost all three of their games where they have attempted 20 rushing attempts or less.
Kevin O’Connell calls the most play-action of any team in the league. His 119 attempts are more than Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh combined. For that to be effective, the run game has to be established.
Avoid turnovers.
After a brief reprieve, the Vikings have tuned back into their regular scheduled programming of turning the ball over.
Denver was allowed to stay in the game last week due to costly turnovers at the most inopportune times. Chicago dominated their game against Detroit due to four costly turnovers from Jared Goff and the Lions.
Detroit was able to storm back in the final stages of that game, but the Bears were one Tyler Scott completion away from sealing that game off.
Minnesota cannot afford another game being careless with the football.
According to Sumer Sports’ Eric Eager, the Vikings have a -35.4 Net EPA (EPA gained – EPA lost) on turnovers. That’s third-worst only behind the Carolina Panthers (-37.1) and New England Patriots (-41.1).
Leave it to Minnesota to still be sixth in the playoff race while losing an entire game’s worth of points to turnovers.
To secure this win and a little breathing room heading into the bye, Minnesota has to hold on to the football.
