Day 2 of the 2023 NFL free agent bargaining period was … honestly, a little underwhelming. Pro Bowlers wound up on the move thanks to trades for Darren Waller and Stephon Gilmore, but all we got from the Aaron Rodgers front was more smoke that ultimately failed to reveal a fire below.
This didn’t mean the moves that took place Tuesday won’t shape the upcoming season. The Raiders continued their dramatic offensive overhaul, bringing in a solid wideout and shipping away a tight end they’re betting is on the downslope of his career. The Giants found one proven target for Daniel Jones and now just need three or four more. The Patriots, uh, signed a swing tackle they’d waived four years ago.
Which moves made the most sense? There were four I liked in particular — starting with a surprising signing in Las Vegas that provides good value even if it fails to pan out.
Las Vegas Raiders sign WR Jakobi Meyers for three years, $33 million ($22 million guaranteed)
Generally speaking, the Patriot Way is non-transferrable. Coaches plucked from Bill Belichick’s coaching tree get top jobs all too often just to fall flat on their faces. The most successful cohort from that group was Bill O’Brien, who rose to the heights of pretty good in Houston before being thoroughly undone by his general manager, Bill O’Brien.
Josh McDaniels failed in his first go-round as a head coach venturing into the storm from under Belichick’s umbrella. He’s on his way to failing in his second, particularly after taking a Raiders team that made the playoffs in 2021 and guiding them to 6-11. That included three different losses in games Las Vegas once led by 17 points or more and the ignominy of being the “1” in Jeff Saturday’s 1-7 record as an NFL head coach.
Adding former New England players is generally a red flag when it comes to former Patriot coaches struggling elsewhere. It’s something we’ve seen Matt Patricia and Joe Judge do with woeful results. But bringing in Meyers at a modest $11 million per year isn’t a Belichick disciple type move. It’s a Kyle Shanahan thing.
Shanahan built a perennial NFC contender despite middling returns at quarterback thanks to a stifling defense and an offense composed of skill players capable of generating big gains. McDaniels doesn’t have that defense yet (and almost certainly won’t despite adding Marcus Epps and Brandon Facyson on Monday). But he’s got the components of that offense. And he’s got the former 49ers (and Patriots) quarterback do execute it.
The Raiders surveyed the landscape, opted out of the Aaron Rodgers sweepstakes (possibly after witnessing firsthand the deluge a former Wisconsin-related quarterback created after a big trade in Denver), and reasonably decided Jimmy Garoppolo was the best they were gonna do at quarterback for the foreseeable future. And in order to keep an average QB with a 40-17 record as a starter rolling, they’ve got to surround him with talent.
Like this:
- WR Davante Adams
- WR Jakobi Meyers
- WR Hunter Renfrow
- TE Foster Moreau (if he re-signs — something the Raiders can do with the nearly $12 million saved by trading Darren Waller)
- RB Josh Jacobs
That’s a genuinely great lineup if Renfrow can put a disappointing 2022 behind him and Adams can fight off age-related regression in his 30s. At the same time, it’s not loaded with the kind of run-after catch threats that propped Garoppolo up in the Bay Area. Even if we fudge the numbers and rely on Renfrow’s 2021 season, there’s a stark difference in post-grab playmaking between the two cohorts.
(This chart was originally written before the Waller trade. I left him in there because it illustrates why Moreau is a better fit for the short target-long gain passing offense that buoyed Garoppolo in San Francisco. For the record, I don’t love the return on the Waller deal, especially with Moreau a free agent, but this an offseason where Jalen Ramsey went for a third round pick and Stephon Gilmore only brought back a fifth so, fine.)
Fortunately, the Raiders still have players who can thrive with the short and intermediate targets Garoppolo prefers — he’s averaged more than 6.9 air yards per throw in a season just once in the last four years and hasn’t cracked the NFL’s top 20 in average throw depth at all in that span. We know Meyers can be viable propping up a questionable quarterback Belichick pulled from the draft heap because that’s exactly what he did the last two seasons. His 116.0 passer rating when targeted was the most among any Patriot with more than four targets and more than 30 points higher than Mac Jones’ 84.8 rating last fall.
What the Raiders don’t have is an established deep threat. Hours after signing Meyers they traded away the guy who led the team in average target depth in 2022 (that was Waller at 13.5 yards downfield). But Adams can step into that role in stretches and that it might not matter anyway.
Garoppolo wasn’t especially interested in those deep shots as a 49er. His career high of 33 throws of 20-plus yards came in 2021 and still ranked 29th among all quarterbacks that season. Maybe McDaniels pushes for a late-round burner at the draft, but either way it probably won’t make a difference.
So we know what to expect from McDaniels in Year 2. Short passes, lots of Jacobs runs and a concerted effort to keep last year’s clock dominance — the Raiders’ 3:02 average drive time was second-best in the NFL — alive.
As for the Patriots … what?
The last time Bill Belichick was armed with spending room he splurged on deals for pass catchers Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry and Nelson Agholor. Only Henry remains under contract and now Meyers has left despite costing the same per-year as Agholor — a player who got $22 million over two seasons for 68 catches and 835 yards, or roughly what Meyers produces in one.
The deal leaves Tyquan Thornton, Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker as the team’s top three wideouts for now. There’s no way that’s tenable but also no way you want Belichick to address that need through the draft when the last five wideouts he selected in the top three rounds were Thornton, N’Keal Harry, Aaron Dobson, Taylor Price and Brandon Tate.
Are the Patriots going to spend that money and lure JuJu Smith-Schuster north? Or are they going to invest it elsewhere, like in the offensive line, and turn to a tried Belichick method of kicking the tires on an aging veteran and add Adam Thielen, Jarvis Landry or Julio Jones to a lineage that includes late-stage efforts from Reggie Wayne, Chad Ochocinco, Torry Holt and Joey Galloway?
Miami Dolphins re-sign RB Raheem Mostert for two years, $5.6 million ($2.2 million guaranteed)
I make no secret regarding my admiration for Raheem Mostert. The man is the definition of perseverance in the NFL. The former Purdue star was an undrafted free agent who bounced around practice squads and roster fringes of six different teams before becoming a regular with the San Francisco 49ers.
He didn’t make more than $705,000 in annual salary until his fifth season in the league. Then he emerged as one of the league’s most electric tailbacks, averaging 5.4 yards per carry over the last five seasons.
Granted, that’s included injury concerns and platoon work. Mostert has only briefly been a full-time back. His 465 career carries since entering the league in 2015 are 114 fewer than Najee Harris has had in two seasons as a pro.
This is both a feature and a bug. It’s how giving a 30-year-old running back a two-year deal makes sense.
Mostert ran for a career-high 891 yards last season because he made a career-high 14 starts for a Dolphins team that needed a ground-game cantilever to the towering spire of Mike McDaniel’s Tyreek Hill-led passing attack. While NFL’s Next Gen Stats paints him as fairly average — despite his 4.9 yards yards per carry, he’s credited with -3 rushing yards over expected for the season — his value shines elsewhere.
Mostert’s 2.1 yards after contact per carry were his most since his breakthrough 2019 and ranked 10th among all NFL running backs. His 16 broken tackles were a career high and his 11.3 carries per broken tackle were also a top 10 mark. More importantly, he got stronger as the season wore on and his quarterback play broke down around him.
Mostert’s 3.2 yards after contact per handoff over the final six weeks of the season were second only to San Francisco’s Jordan Mason among running backs with at least 30 carries. This was not a guy who was showing his age — it was a player putting in the work to help Skylar Thompson limp into the playoffs.
Unfortunately he didn’t get to play in that Wild Card game, and that’s why this modest deal makes sense. Last year’s broken thumb kept him out of a showdown with Buffalo where the Dolphins really could have used a solid running back — leading rusher Jeff Wilson finished the game with 10 carries for 23 yards in a 31-34 loss. Mostert played 16 games in 2022 but only nine in 2020 and 2021 combined. At a soon-to-be 31 years old, those injury concerns are only going to get worse.
But at $2.8 million annually, Mostert is only getting paid slightly more than Matt Breida, Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Brandon Bolden. He’s a cheaper bet than Wilson, who the team also re-signed Tuesday for two years at up to $8.4 million. If he backslides, that $2.2 million in guarantees is less than one percent of this year’s salary cap.
All told, this is about as low-risk and high-reward a move you can make for 2022’s third-oldest starting tailback. The Dolphins still need to beef up their backfield — and hey, Austin Ekeler might be available — but laying a foundation with Mostert and Wilson is a great place to start.
The New York Giants trade for TE Darren Waller and his complete lack of guaranteed salary after 2023
The New York Giants badly needed targets for newly minted $160 million man Daniel Jones. Extending Sterling Shepard might help, or he might play like a 30-year-old who has missed 24 games the last two seasons due to injury. Wan’Dale Robinson’s return from a torn ACL will help and Isaiah Hodgins was better than expected when pressed into duty last year, but early returns suggest the Giants would once again be a run-heavy apparatus in 2023.
Waller might change all that. Or he might not, but he was the best New York was gonna do and an inexpensive risk to take.
Let’s start with the Pro Bowl tight end. Waller suffered through a down 2022 thanks to injury and was limited to only nine games. His 43.1 receiving yards per contest were the lowest since his 2019 breakout, but the Raiders prioritized him differently with Davante Adams on the team.
His targets per game dropped from 8.3 from 2019-21 to 4.8. His average target depth rose from 8.1 yards downfield to 13.5 in his final season as a Raider. Josh McDaniels utilized him more as a deep threat for Derek Carr to middling effect.
The move to New York should see him utilized closer to the line of scrimmage, where his athleticism helped spring him for 570 yards after catch in that impressive 2019 campaign (second-most among all tight ends). Daniel Jones’ most efficient season as a passer not-coincidentally came in the year where he threw fewer deep balls than ever. He’ll have more opportunities to throw downfield if his receiving corps improves, but close-range throws will remain a staple of Brian Daboll’s offense. That’s a place where Waller can execute.
The concern there, however, is that Waller is now on the wrong side of 30, has missed 14 games the last two seasons and has watched his yards-after-catch decline every year since ’19. There’s a good chance he’s no longer a 1,000-yard threat and a reasonable one he won’t get past 800 yards in a season again. There’s a reason both Next Gen Stats tweets hyping his arrival focused on the last four years instead of 2022.
Darren Waller has averaged 2.2 yards per route since 2019, 4th-most among tight ends (min. 800 routes).
Waller had 50 receptions on crossing routes over that time frame (3rd-most among TE). Daniel Jones targeted crossers at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL last season (16.9%). pic.twitter.com/U7y7UtaFDy
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 14, 2023
But that’s OK, because the Giants are insulated from that. Aside from $8.3 million this fall, there’s no remaining guaranteed money on the three year, $51 million extension Waller signed in 2022. The pick traded to the Raiders was the 100th overall selection gleaned from the trade that sent Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs. Toney was a sunk cost and if Waller turns out to be the same, well, that’s not great. But it’s also not going to ruin New York’s future.
Daboll can’t stop here, because his receiving corps remains a mess. But Waller provides a viable starter capable of being much more than that, and the price was right. Even if this doesn’t work out, it’s a smart move for the Giants.
The Lions sign CB Emmanuel Moseley to a one year, $6 million contract
Another day, another inexpensive, high-reward cornerback signing for the Lions.
Detroit’s run at Pittsburgh starter Cameron Sutton as an undervalued product earned Dan Campbell’s team a spot in the winners’ column Monday. Double-dipping for Moseley makes things even sweeter.
Like Sutton, Moseley is a smaller corner capable of playing in the slot or outside. That creates value in the upcoming draft if Campbell likes a bigger corner with the sixth overall pick and provides a contingency plan for Jeff Okudah’s inconsistent play. The former third overall pick trended toward his potential through much of 2022, then faded badly toward the end of the year to, once again, leave questions about his future.
At his best, Moseley is effective in coverage and does his best work near the sideline. Split wide in 2021 and 2022 he allowed only 5.8 yards per target and didn’t give up a single touchdown en route to a 66.0 passer rating in coverage — fourth best among all cornerbacks who faced at least 80 targets in that span behind Sauce Gardner, Jaire Alexander and Tre’Davious White. He came into the league as a plus-plus athlete and, after a rough start, has shown off those chops at the next level.
Emmanuel Moseley went undrafted as a CB in the 2018 draft class. He scored a 9.74 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 39 out of 1477 CB from 1987 to 2018. #Lionshttps://t.co/5Au3CZhV9I #RAS pic.twitter.com/hGJgbwPZrv
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 14, 2023
The problem is, he only played 16 games the last two years and had his 2022 campaign cut short by a torn ACL. He’s expected to return to full strength before training camp, but even at 100 percent flaws persist in his tackling.
This led him to a one-year prove-it deal with a needy Detroit team. He’s thoroughly capable of out-playing that contract.
The Lions finished 2022 at 9-8 despite a secondary whose 7.9 adjusted net yards per attempt allowed through the air was the worst mark in the league (7.9 any/a was, for reference, was roughly what Patrick Mahomes averaged last fall). Detroit had several holes to fill in its defensive backfield and limited salary cap space with which to do so. Hiring Moseley and Sutton at a combined $17 million for 2023 provides two starting caliber talents at 7.6 percent of this season’s $224.8 million spending limit. They both work well on the outside and both have experience on the inside if needed.
That leaves Campbell and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn flexibility in their secondary and in the way they approach their future. The Lions’ investments aren’t blue chip portfolios, but they’re capable of big payoffs. That’s the exact risk this team needs to make in this stage of its development.
