Odds for the 95th Academy Awards are out. Everything, Everywhere All At Once is the favorite in more than a few categories, while Brendan Fraser and Cate Blanchett are the early frontrunners for the main acting awards.
But things can shift between now and March 12. Studios will campaign hard and the minds of some voters might change. So, nominees with longer odds may wind up being favorites by March, or might be the winners of their respective categories.
The Oscars are far from immune from surprises. Remember CODA‘s win last year? Or Anthony Hopkins winning for Best Actor in 2021?
Let’s take a look at four enticing dark horse bets ahead of the Oscars. All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch (+3500)
Hirsch became the second-oldest person to earn an acting nomination from the Academy when he was nominated for his work in The Fabelmans. Hirsch, 87, has been working in film since 1971 and this is his second Oscars nomination. He was also nominated in 1980 for Ordinary People, but lost to costar Timothy Hutton. Hirsch’s nomination this year also marks the longest gap between two nominations for an actor or actress.
He’s won Emmys, Tonys and a Golden Globe, and could potentially add an Oscar to his collection. In Steven Spielberg’s latest film, Hirsch plays Boris Schildkraut, the uncle of Michelle Williams’ character (who is based on Spielberg’s mother). Hirsch is only in three scenes for maybe a total of 10 minutes, but he owns the screen as soon as enters the Fabelmans’ Arizona home unannounced. Hirsch delivers a whirlwind of a performance and a key monologue that shakes up Sammy – a surrogate for Spielberg played by Gabriel LaBelle. As Boris, Hirsch is cantankerous, wild and powerful. And then poof, he’s gone from the rest of the film, leaving viewers wanting more and leaving a lasting impression.
The Academy sometimes overly appreciates these big performances in limited minutes. Judi Dench won an Oscar for eight minutes of acting in Shakespeare in Love, and Beatrice Straight was on-screen in Network for just a little more than five minutes when she won. Anthony Hopkins won for Silence of the Lambs for just 16 minutes of screen time, and Kim Basinger, Penelope Cruz and Anne Hathaway have also won Oscars for fewer than 20 minutes of screen time.
While Golden Globe-winner and Oscars odds favorite Ke Huy Quan was excellent in Everything Everywhere All at Once, don’t count out the Academy on making an unconventional choice here to award Hirsch for injecting a bolt of lightning into The Fabelmans.
Best Director: Martin McDonagh (+1200)
It’s no secret that Academy voters really like the work of McDonagh. He won his only Oscar back in 2006, winning Best Live Action Short Film for Six Shooter. Three years later, his film In Bruges was nominated for Best Original Screenplay, and in 2018 McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was nominated for six Oscars and won two for acting performances by Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell.
McDonagh’s latest film, The Banshees of Inisherin, is nominated for nine Oscars this year. At the Golden Globes, McDonagh won for Best Picture – Musical or Comedy, and for Best Screenplay. Currently running ahead of McDonagh in this race are the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Spielberg for The Fabelmans. But the Academy’s fandom for McDonagh could elevate him to the top.
Best Actor: Austin Butler (+300)
This feels like one of the most tightly contested Oscar races this year. Butler and Colin Farrell both won Golden Globes for their respective performances, but the favorite here, Brendan Fraser of The Whale, has earned widespread acclaim for his performance too.
So, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see either one of them win. And Butler, currently, is running third in odds for the race.
Elvis has gotten mixed reviews, but most folks who have seen it seemed to come away impressed by Butler’s performance. He’s incredibly convincing as The King and delivers a fun, physical, emotional and extraordinary portrayal of him.
If Butler does win, the Academy can expect a memorable speech. At the Golden Globes, Butler told a story – while pointing to Quentin Tarantino – about printing out the Pulp Fiction script when he was 12-years-old, and he seemed to do the whole speech with a hint of the Elvis accent.
Best Picture: Top Gun Maverick (+1000)
I mean, come on, who didn’t love this film?
A year ago, it seemed wildly unlikely that a smash summer blockbuster starring Tom Cruise would get nominated for Best Picture, but it did, and it earned five other nominations too. Top Gun Maverick got folks back into theaters in 2022, grossing $719 million domestically.
Cruise and the filmmakers didn’t go all out in campaigning for the film leading up the nominations, but now that they’re in the race, we might see them do that, which could make this film rise a bit in the estimation of voters.
