In the weeks leading up to every new NASCAR Cup Series season, optimism abounds among those who will be sharing a race track from February through November.
Ask just about any driver this time of year to offer a forecast for the upcoming season, and they’ll claim they’re “excited” about the possibilities.
In reality, though, this could be a make-or-break season for several who are on the proverbial hot seat.
Here are the drivers in serious danger of losing their ride if their results don’t improve dramatically in 2025.
1. Alex Bowman
Over the past three seasons, Bowman has scored a total of two wins. Meanwhile, his three Hendrick Motorsports teammates — Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Elliott — have prevailed 13 times, 11 times and six times, respectively. It’s consequently not hard to understand why even remotely keen observers perceive Bowman as the weakest link in the Hendrick driver stable.
For Bowman’s sake, let’s hope he’s just as aware of this perception.
With young, talented, less expensive drivers such Carson Kvapil and Sammy Smith waiting in the wings at Hendrick Motorsports-affiliated JR Motorsports, Bowman should be looking over his shoulder. Anything less than being one of Hendrick’s top two performers in 2025 likely won’t bode well for Bowman and his future with the organization, beginning in 2026.
2. Bubba Wallace
Coming off of a season when he reached the playoffs for the first time, Wallace fell short of that goal in 2024. So rather than building on what some observers considered to be a breakout 2023 campaign, the 23XI Racing driver took somewhat of a step back last season.
What does all this mean for Wallace in 2025? It likely means that team co-owners Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin are expecting Wallace to elevate his game, if he wants to remain in the No. 23 car for 2026.
That’ll be especially necessary if teammate Tyler Reddick has another season like last year when he scored multiple wins and reached the Championship 4. Wallace will also draw comparisons to 23XI newcomer Riley Herbst.
On to the Champ 4 LFG @TylerReddick!! pic.twitter.com/D1BuHvAJnt
— Bubba Wallace (@BubbaWallace) October 27, 2024
3. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse won at Talladega late in 2024, but it was too little too late for him to make the playoffs. Although Stenhouse has now gone to Victory Lane in consecutive years for the first time in his career after also capturing the 2023 Daytona 500, his situation is seemingly on shaky ground at the newly rebranded Hyak Motorsports (formerly JTG Daugherty Racing).
Same Team. New Name. New Era.#NASCAR |@StenhouseJr pic.twitter.com/C6CHcMs9RX
— Hyak Motorsports (@HYAKMotorsports) November 21, 2024
That’s in part because the Kroger brand, Stenhouse’s primary sponsor for the last five years, has moved its financial backing to RFK Racing for 2025. It’s also because Stenhouse, despite showing flashes of brilliance, has never been a consistent frontrunner or a serious championship contender over his modestly lengthy NASCAR Cup Series career.
No longer able to attract the Kroger sponsorship, Stenhouse is now even less of a commodity for the team.
4. Erik Jones
The only driver with as much or more to prove in 2025 than the trio discussed above is Jones.
Although in the first year of a multi-year contract extension with Jimmie Johnson-co-owned Legacy Motor Club, Jones hasn’t done anything noteworthy on the race track in more than two full seasons. Even in 2022, when he recorded his most recent victory along with two other top-fives, he missed the playoffs.
Once touted as the future of Joe Gibbs Racing, Jones has never lived up to the hype since joining the NASCAR Cup Series — where he’s collected just three wins in 289 starts. And the struggle has been especially real for the Michigan native since being fired by JGR at the end of 2020.
