Every week in “4-Down Territory,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire go over the things you need to know about, and the things you need to watch, in the NFL right now. Of course, with Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season right around the corner, our guys are laser-focused on that.
This week, Doug and Luke discuss:
- Which elements are most important in the 2022 season opener Thursday night between the Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills?
- Which Week 1 revenge game is the most compelling?
- Every year, there’s a worst-to-first team — last year, it was the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals. Which teams are best set up to rise to the top in 2022?
- Conversely, which 2021 playoff teams are the guys most worried about when it’s time to run it back?
You can watch this week’s episode of “4 Down Territory” right here.
What are the key things you're looking for in the Bills vs. Rams season opener?
Doug: The Bills have a receiver group that can really stretch you out, and they’ll go five-wide out of empty on first down. They just don’t care. The Rams are light at cornerback outside of Jalen Ramsey, with Darious Williams signing with the Jaguars in the offseason. They have Troy Hill and David Long and Robert Rochell, but do they have the alphas outside of Ramsey to deal with that receiver group?
Luke: If there’s a weak link on this Buffalo roster, it’s probably the offensive line. That’s bad news when you’re facing Aaron Donald, but I want to see how much Donald and the rest of that Rams’ defensive front misses Von Miller, who will be on the other sideline for this game. Along with Miller, the Bills have some talented young pass rushers (Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham), which could make life difficult for Matthew Stafford.
Doug: Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White is on the PUP list, and he won’t be eligible to return before week five from the torn ACL he suffered in Week 12 of the 2021 season. So, in this game, and through the first month of the season, how does Buffalo defend opposing receivers when their own offense presses opponents to score as much as possible just to keep up? First-round pick Kaiir Elam looked great this preseason, Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson have shown potential (especially Johnson in the slot), but there’s no comparable to White on this roster. That will bite the Bills in Week 1 and beyond – as long as White is out.
Which is your favorite Week 1 revenge game?
Doug: I’ll go with Denver at Seattle on Monday night, since I’ll be in the press box for that one. The Broncos are trying to be like the 2020 Buccaneers and the 2021 Rams – we had everything else, and we went out and got an established quarterback to fill in the blanks and win the Super Bowl. They might be right in that they were only a quarterback away. As for the Seahawks, they’re rebuilding from the studs, and from a quarterback perspective with Geno Smith and Drew Lock, they’re playing in 2022 for the 2023 draft. Denver is the better team here, but from Beastquake to the Fail Mary to the 2014 NFC Championship game and too many other things to mention, I’ve seen a lot of weird occurrences in the last 12 years on that field that somehow went in Seattle’s favor.
Luke: I love that one, but since you took it, I’ll go with Baker Mayfield opening up against his old team, the Cleveland Browns. After playing through injury last year, Mayfield found himself being shipped out by the team that drafted him No. 1 overall back in 2018, in favor of Deshaun Watson. Jacoby Brissett will quarterback the Browns for this one because of Watson’s suspension, while Mayfield as a chance to prove what he’s capable of at full strength, against the team that gave up on him in favor of Watson, who cost them multiple first-round picks and a ridiculous guaranteed contract despite numerous allegations of sexual misconduct.
Who is your worst-to-first contender for the 2022 season?
Doug: Not sure about “first” in the AFC South, but I think the Houston Texans are going to be a lot better than people think. The 2021 draft, which seemed to be the joke of the league because of how little the team had to work with, netted quarterback Davis Mills and receiver Nico Collins, who might be the team’s franchise quarterback and No. 1 receiver, both in the third round. And in the 2022 draft, finally freed from the specter of Bill O’Brien’s mistakes, they got cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., guard Kenyon Green, safety Jalen Pitre, and running back Dameon Pierce. All of those guys project as starters to plus starters, and I still don’t know why Pierce lasted to the fourth round when he was clearly the best back in this class. The Texans were once the joke of the league. Now, I would say that they’re a team you dismiss at your peril.
Luke: I think there are two strong candidates in the AFC. The West might be the toughest division in the league right now, but bringing in Russell Wilson immediately makes contenders out of a Broncos team that went 7-10 last year. They have tons of weapons on offense, and enough playmakers on defense to make some noise in that division. In the North, the Ravens finished last in 2021, but were only two games out of first. How’s that for parity? With a healthy Lamar Jackson in a contract year, there’s no reason why the Ravens can’t jump back up to the top of that division.
Which 2021 playoff team are you most worried about?
Doug: The Pittsburgh Steelers. Their defense has been carrying their offense over the last couple seasons, so we’re used to that, but there are additional issues this season, and I’m not just talking about who will be the quarterback. The offensive line is abysmal, they may have to rely on Najee Harris too much, and as much as George Pickens is an absolute freak, and Kenny Pickett is a better deep passer than people think he is, I don’t know how much of a passing game you can put on the field when your line can’t protect anybody, and you’re not Russell Wilson in Seattle. As has been the case for a while, any defensive downturn could put this team in a pinch, even though Mike Tomlin will coach them up as much as anybody can.
Luke: I’ll take the New England Patriots. Their offense struggled in the preseason, and don’t think they have the explosive playmakers to give the unit a ton of upside. On defense, they lost one of the NFL’s best corners in J.C. Jackson, so it’s hard to see that unit being better this year. I’ll never bet against Bill Belichick, but if the Pats do make the postseason this year, it might be one of the more impressive accomplishments of his coaching career, because this roster just doesn’t thrill me right now.
