It’s Mock Draft Season everywhere, and that’s no different at 4-Down Territory HQ. Instead of their normal four-subject video, Doug Farrar and Kyle Madson break out of the format with their own first-round mock, all captured on video with the help of Pro Football Focus’ outstanding Mock Draft Simulator.
The rules for this live mock were pretty simple: Doug and Kyle alternated picks with Kyle taking the odd-numbered picks, and Doug taking the even-numbered ones. There weren’t any trades in this particular mock, but there was one major quarterback deal, with the Colts signing Lamar Jackson to a massive offer sheet, the Ravens refusing to match it, and Baltimore getting two first-round picks in the bargain, including Indy’s fourth-overall selection.
So, here’s the entire mock on video, and all the picks below, with Doug and Kyle explaining themselves!
1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago Bears): CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Kyle: Bryce Young also makes sense here as Frank Reich aims to get his tenure in Carolina underway by picking a franchise quarterback. Stroud’s size and precision from the pocket give him the edge as the No. 1 pick. There’ll be some growing pains as there are with all rookie QBs, but Stroud may just be good enough in Year 1 to help Carolina win a weak NFC South.
2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Doug: Some may balk at Young’s size – he comes into the NFL basically with the same height and weight as Doug Flutie – but from field-reading to arm talent to off-schedule playmaking, he has everything else you want in a potential franchise quarterback. This is a major win for the Texans.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
Kyle: The Cardinals need a game-changing player on defense. Anderson might be the best player in this class. New head coach Johnathan Gannon knows the value of a game-wrecking defensive line after his time in Philadelphia. It’s hard to imagine he’d pass on a cornerstone defensive end in his first draft.
4. Baltimore Ravens (from Indianapolis Colts): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Doug: The Ravens lose Lamar Jackson to the Colts after refusing to match Indy’s hypothetical four-year, $250 million offer sheet with $200 million guaranteed, and they turn the first of two first-round picks they get from the Colts into the new most athletically ridiculous quarterback we’ve ever seen. Richardson does need development as a passer, but he improved over his one season as a starter for the Gators, and if there’s any team that knows how to make the most of this type of quarterback, it’s certainly the Ravens.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
Kyle: Peter King recently wrote that he wouldn’t be shocked if Carter went fifth or 25th. He’s just too good a prospect to fall very far and Seattle badly needs help on the defensive front. I don’t typically love interior DL this early, but he’s an impact player on all three downs for a team that needs it. Pete Carroll won’t let a player as quick, powerful and versatile as Carter on the defensive line get past him.
6. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Doug: It’s eye of the beholder time – the first cornerback off the board could be Witherspoon, or Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez, or Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. I have Witherspoon as the top cornerback in this class because of his incendiary combination of press-man aggression, movement skills, and coverage understanding. These attributes would make him an outstanding fit in Aaron Glenn’s defense.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Kyle: This feels like a Raiders pick. Maybe they move up and get Richardson if he slides past No. 4, but Josh McDaniels has said they want a franchise QB. Levis could use some refinement, and a year behind Jimmy Garoppolo should help that some. It also gives Las Vegas a chance to improve the offensive line and playmakers around Levis. He has the physical traits to be a very good QB — it’ll be up to McDaniels and the coaching staff to ensure he develops.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Doug: The Falcons had just 21 sacks and 88 pressures last season – both numbers ranked second-worst in the NFL behind only the Bears’ 20 and 85. They’ve made a few improvements to their defensive front in free agency, but nothing like Wilson, whose potential could have him as one of the most dominant pass-rushers and run defenders in the NFL sooner than later.
9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Kyle: The Bears could absolutely go with an offensive tackle here, and that may be the prudent selection because they have to figure out a way to keep QB Justin Fields upright. However, Gonzalez is pretty incredible value at the No. 9 pick and adding a big, long, athletic CB who racked up 21 pass breakups and four interceptions in 30 college games will help a Bears secondary that was one of the NFL’s worst last season.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans Saints): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Doug: The defending NFC champs already have A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert as estimable targets for Jalen Hurts. Add Smith-Njigba, who can win from the slot and outside in a Justin Jefferson sense, and you have a passing game that borders on the illegal.
11. Tennessee TItans: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Kyle: The Titans desperately need help on their offensive line and Skoronski can do a little bit of everything. He has the versatility to play inside, but he’s very good as a left tackle and Tennessee needs a replacement for Taylor Lewan. Skoronski might never be the best LT in the league, but they can plug him in as the starter for the next decade and feel good about it.
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Doug: One of the few things that Bryce Young struggled with at Alabama was throwing deep over the middle. Yes, there are times when height is a skill. To make up for that, let’s give Young the kind of massive target over the middle who can beat defensive backs deep, and can also wreck linebackers and safeties after the catch. Johnston needs to refine his route palette and reduce his drops, but he is that kind of receiver.
13. New York Jets: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Kyle: The Jets need some help in the secondary and Branch can fit in a variety of roles in the way Jimmie Ward did for Robert Saleh in San Francisco. He can play up high, he can slide into the slot and cover, or he can hang around in the box in run support. This is a Day 1 starter who helps an already good Jets defense.
14. New England Patriots: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Doug: The Patriots are apparently in a situation where Bill Belichick and Mac Jones aren’t completely happy with each other, which is never a good place to be. Let’s assume for the moment that New England isn’t ready to reset at quarterback, and instead move to an offensive line in need of a lot of help. Johnson, the top offensive lineman in this class, will help Jones stay upright with his ability to just envelop opposing pass-rushers, and given Jones’ limitations under pressure, that’s an incredibly important addition.
15. Green Bay Packers: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
Kyle: Smith is an elite athlete, but his size may limit his versatility some so landing a 3-4 front makes sense for him. Stick him on the edge and he’s going to disrupt quarterbacks for a long time. His tape as a run stopper is super impressive for his size though so Green Bay will be able to keep him on the field for all three downs.
16. Washington Commanders: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Doug: We’re never quite sure what kind of defense Commanders defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will put on the field, and that’s head coach Ron Rivera’s problem. But Banks, the best press-man cornerback in this class, would do a lot to mitigate those schematic issues by just locking down the receivers
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Joey Porter, CB, Penn State
Kyle: Pittsburgh can also go with an offensive tackle here, but they need cornerback help too and Porter’s value is too good here. At 6-2 ½ and 193 pounds with 34-inch arms he has elite size for the position, but he moves fluidly and with enough athleticism to be a very good corner even in the early part of his career.
18. Detroit Lions: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Doug: Yes, this pick will be the scourge of the analytics community, but consider that the Lions are always managing Jared Goff’s relatively low ceiling, and a truly transformative running back helps that process. Robinson broke over 100 tackles last season for the Longhorns, and he’s a plus receiver and pass-blocker. It is still possible to successfully build your offense to a degree around the right type of running back (at least for a while), and Robinson qualifies as that type of back.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Kyle: Jones may need a little time to develop into a high-level left tackle, but Tampa Bay isn’t probably contending this year so a high-upside project that can anchor their offensive line makes sense for them. Jones has the requisite size to play the position and plenty of athleticism. He’s just mistake prone due to his lack of experience (19 starts in three seasons), and he needs to get stronger. Give it a couple years though and Jones should be a more than capable LT.
20. Seattle Seahawks:: Calijah Kancey, IDL, Pitt
Doug: We all know that the Seahawks need a ton of help in their front seven. The signings of Dre’Mont Jones and Bobby Wagner confirmed the need, and you should expect the draft to produce further dividends for Pete Carroll. Kancey is an undersized disruptor, but from John Randle to Geno Atkins to Aaron Donald to Grady Jarrett, the history of smaller defensive tackles who win with leverage over time is pretty impressive. Add Kancey to the list as the next guy in line to barrel through enemy blockers and get to the ball in a big hurry.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
Kyle: The Chargers can use an injection of youth on the edge and Murphy provides it with a ton of upside. He’s 6-5, 268 pounds with really good athleticism off the edge. Murphy may not have a ton of bend, but he’s capable of getting to the quarterback with either speed or power. He’s also big enough to slide inside where his size and movement could be a real problem for guards in passing situations.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Doug: Now that the Ravens have Anthony Richardson to develop, they’ll need a top receiver to pair with him. And since this is the Ravens, you know what that means: When they need a receiver, they go get a tight end! The good news in this case is that Kincaid profiles a lot like Travis Kelce did coming out of Cincinnati with his ability to make contested catches, win after the catch, and beat up zone coverage.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Kyle: There are a ton of receivers who could go here, but Hyatt appears to be the best fit alongside Justin Jefferson. He’s not particularly big, but he has the speed to take the top off a defense or affect the game on underneath routes. Let Kirk Cousins cook.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Doug: The Jaguars ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA last season, and they didn’t do a lot in free agency to improve an underwhelming secondary. So, it’s up to the draft, and in this case, getting a man coverage expert in Smith, who also excels in off-coverage. He’s an excellent combination of aggressor and technician with the potential to be any team’s CB1.
25. New York Giants: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Kyle: Forbes is a really fun corner to watch. He’s a little undersized at 6-1, 166 pounds, but he can fly and his athleticism really shows up on tape. Forbes likely won’t ever be a great tackler since his play strength isn’t awesome, but his length, speed and ball skills all scream that he’ll be a productive pro cornerback.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson
Doug: Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is a wizard when it comes to maximizing the potential of his interior disruptors, which is how he’s gotten the most out of guys like Osa Odighizuwa. But it’s a pretty light group inside for Dallas, and the addition of Bresee, who reminds me of Darnell Dockett in his ability to wreck opposing blockers right off the snap, and in extended action. If he learns to do a few more things with his hands, Bresee might have an All-Pro future.
27. Buffalo Bills: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
Kyle: The Bills let Tremaine Edmunds walk in free agency, so finding a replacement should be at the top of their to-do list. Simpson is one of a couple LBs who could go here, but his coverage skills make him an enticing prospect. He’s capable of staying on the field for all three downs and playing for Sean McDermott in an excellent Buffalo defense should only help him maximize his stellar athletic traits.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Doug: The Bengals signed Orlando Brown Jr. to man their left tackle spot this offseason, and they’ll need to do more than just move Jonah Williams to the right side, given Williams’ 13 sacks and 45 pressures allowed last season. A better solution to keep Joe Burrow upright from the front side would be the addition of Wright, who allowed no sacks and just eight pressures last season, giving both Will Anderson Jr. and B.J. Ojulari goose eggs in 2022.
29. New Orleans Saints (from Denver Broncos): Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
Kyle: Van Ness is a bit of a project, but it’s hard to envision him slipping out of Round 1. His tape is littered with jaw-dropping, highlight reel plays, but there are also reps where he looks like he needs a lot of development. New Orleans needs edge help and Van Ness won’t be an every-down player right away, but his arrow is pointing up after a productive college career and his physical tools are worth betting on.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
Doug: There are times when you have to watch college prospects with the understanding that their coaches didn’t put them in the best positions to succeed. In the case of the 6-foot-4, 240-pound McDonald, making him play inside the tackles in three-man fronts as much as he did was not optimal. But if you put him on the edge in the five-man fronts the Eagles have loved to run, McDonald has the speed, technique, and movement skills to pair with Haason Reddick and make the life of every offensive tackle playing Philly’s defense a constant exercise in frustration.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Kyle: Addison falling to Kansas City feels a little bit unfair. He’s an impact player either in the slot or outside and at all three levels of the field. He caught 219 balls for 3,134 yards and 29 touchdowns during his college career split between Pittsburgh and USC. His size may scare some teams, but Andy Reid is going to figure out how to effectively use a player like Addison regardless of size.
