With 14 weeks of actual football in the books for the 2023 NFL season, it’s time once again for Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, and Kyle Madson of Niners Wire, to come to the table with their own unique brand of analysis in “4-Down Territory.”
This week, the guys have some serious questions to answer:
- Why have Joe Flacco and Jake Browning, Ohio’s backup quarterbacks, been so successful?
- What will it take for people to wake up and understand that Brock Purdy is more than a system quarterback?
- Who was Patrick Mahomes really yelling at?
- What the NFL’s Worst of the Week for Week 14?
You can watch this week’s “4-Down Territory” right here:
You can also listen and subscribe to the “4-Down Territory” podcast on Spotify…
…and on Apple Podcasts.
1. What do Joe Flacco and Jake Browning tell us about quarterback evaluation?
Doug: Sometimes, it helps coaches to reset with a new quarterback – to simplify and tailor a game plan to the new guy. In Browning’s case, head coach Zac Taylor and his staff are leaning on more play-action and pre-snap motion, which gives Browning more defined openings and better pre-snap indicators regarding coverage. Joe Burrow didn’t seem to want or need either of those things, or the Bengals would have used more of it when he was on the field.
In Weeks 1-10, the Bengals ranked 23rd in dropbacks with pre-snap motion. Since then, they rank 12th. They ranked 22nd in dropbacks with play-action. Since then, they rank 17th. They ranked 30th in passing snaps under center through Week 10. Since then, they rank 17th. Browning has the awareness under pressure and ability to make stick throws downfield with the right concepts and players around him.
In Flacco’s case, I think that head coach Kevin Stefanski needed a calm veteran voice who would take his offense to the field. It’s a highly defined system, and Stefanski would rather have someone who adheres to it, as opposed to someone who’s going to go off-script. One of the reasons Deshaun Watson was such a catastrophic fit for this team in the first place is that he’s not really that kind of quarterback. When Watson was good, he was more prone to play outside of structure. Flacco? He’ll play the hits all day long. Stefanski has him making stick throws out of boot-action, hitting the schemed-open receivers in time and on target, and that’s all you need here. It’s like when Kyle Shanahan taught Matt Ryan how to run boot, and there it was! You don’t need fireworks; you’ve had enough of them at the position. Flacco can provide what this team needs because of his experience. He’s also showing more in the tank than he ever did with the Jets, which raises all kinds of Jets questions that have already been raised.
Regarding quarterback evaluation… we could go three hours on that subject, but it’s clear to me that both of these coaching staffs have merged what both quarterbacks like, and what they’re good at, within the system. Seems obvious, but you and I both know how often that doesn’t happen – even in crucibles where you have a few days to get a new guy on the field. I will also say that if you have a quarterback who doesn’t engender belief in the locker room, you are hosed. I don’t care how good the guy is. It’s a more important quality for quarterbacks than it is for any other player in any other sport.
Kyle: This is 100 percent what it is. Coaches have gotten so much smarter about QB utilization. Instead of trying to shoehorn a QB into a system that doesn’t play to their strengths, they find out what that QB likes, what they’re good at, and then craft offensive attacks that marry those things. It sounds super obvious, but this hasn’t always been the case.
I also think offensive play callers do a better job of getting their backup QBs in rhythm now. There’s a concerted effort to ensure the QB is comfortable and once they’re settled in, the playbook (which is also crafted to the QB) opens up. There’s obviously a ceiling on what Flacco and Browning can offer, but they can win a game, keep their teams in playoff contention, and I’m not totally sure any club is dying to see either Ohio team in the postseason.
2. What will Brock Purdy have to do to convince the naysayers that he’s more than a system quarterback?
Doug: Win a Super Bowl, because some people only measure true quarterback success in terms of Super Bowls. So many are still calling Purdy a “system quarterback,” though it’s very clear that no quarterback has run Kyle Shanahan’s system to this level since the aforementioned Matt Ryan back in 2016. Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t do this. Trey Lance, who the 49ers mortgaged the farm to select in the draft, didn’t do this. Purdy has a specific ability to make downfield throws with accuracy and anticipation that has unlocked the third level of Shanahan’s offense, and it happens often enough that it’s beyond the people coaching him, and the players around him.
Does he have the best offensive mind in the NFL in Shanahan, and a huddle that’s dripping with All-Pros? Sure. But Purdy has transcended his own positive environment enough to make him a legitimate Top 5 NFL quarterback, and an MVP candidate. That said, nothing he does will quell some of the naysayers until he hoists a Lombardi Trophy. In the meantime, the rest of us can enjoy Mozart the way it should be played. You ask Purdy’s coaches and teammates, and they’ll tell you exactly what Purdy has brought to his team.
I think Trent Williams said it better than anybody after the 49ers’ Sunday win over the Seahawks, and I’ll trust him on this.
I told Trent Williams that the 49ers’ explosive pass rate is rivaling the Greatest Show on Turf Rams.
Williams responded with a long explanation of how Brock Purdy is the opposite of a “system QB” and his theory as to why many observers continue to misevaluate Purdy pic.twitter.com/2uWNgyhXxQ
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) December 11, 2023
Kyle: Great question and a great answer by you, Doug. There are fewer naysayers now than there were 14 weeks ago, but I think it’s going to take a sustained run of success where the offensive weapons aren’t elite. Even if he wins a Super Bowl this year it’s going to be about how loaded the roster is. I think the Purdy naysayers are going to be around until he’s able to win games and be this efficient without Deebo Samuel and without George Kittle or Christian McCaffrey. It’s such a silly premise, but some sports fans need to see a guy do it “alone” before they truly give him his flowers.
It doesn’t take a deep dive into the film, the counting stats or the advanced numbers to determine that Purdy is more than just a product of his environment, but a lot of folks don’t even want to do a cursory glance at anything that’s going to knock them off their very staunch opinion. If someone still believes Purdy is a checkdown merchant who thrives only because of YAC and his playmakers, then they’re just not watching. They’ve had 20 starts to figure it out. If they’re not there by now – I’m not totally sure they’ll ever get there.
3. Who was Patrick Mahomes really yelling at?
The play we’re all talking about is the Chiefs touchdown against the Bills on Sunday that was negated by receiver Kadarius Toney lining up offside. Patrick Mahomes lost his cool against the officials on the field, and both Mahomes and Andy Reid were very forward in their postgame press conferences about the officiating. But it was clear that Toney was offside, and not by a little bit. Who was Patrick Mahomes really yelling at?
Doug: 2% the officials, and 98% his receivers, his offensive tackles, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, and his entire season. I get that Mahomes was frustrated with the play, but Mahomes is also smart enough to know that Kadarius Toney was a good yard offside, and the All-22 shows no attempt by Toney to check with the officials to see if he was offside. This is probably more about the missed pass interference call the week before against the Packers, but it’s really about Mahomes letting himself down at times, his receivers rarely being on the same page, his offensive tackles playing sub-par football, and an offense that doesn’t present openings enough.
Mahomes can’t go off on any of those guys publicly. He can’t address any of these things in a public forum. I think this was a case of misdirected anger and frustration. If you have Mahomes and Reid truth serum, they’d tell you that Toney blew the opportunity, and not for the first time this season. Both Mahomes and Reid had to back off their comments when it turned out that no, Toney didn’t check with the officials. They’d probably talk far more about other frustrations, but again, they can’t.
Kyle: It’s kind of wild seeing how dramatic Mahomes was on the sideline. He’s been the epitome of cool, calm and collected since he first stepped foot on an NFL field. That he’s losing it now is not because the officials made a correct call. It’s because he’s dealing with real NFL adversity for the first time after more than a half decade of overwhelming success. I think that outburst Sunday was pent up anger at a slew of mistakes on offense this year that go beyond his control. I’m putting it at 0 percent the officials, 98.4 percent at his WRs, 1 percent at Nagy, and 0.6 percent at his brother.
4. What was your Worst of the Week for Week 14?
Doug: Three examples of the NFL not giving a damn about head trauma. Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt suffered more than one big hit against the Patriots last Thursday, and it appears that heaven and earth was moved to endure that Watt returned to play. This despite after a trip to the medical tent, Watt appeared to have sensitivity to light (one symptom of head trauma), and the team had to add a black visor to his face mask. The Steelers only put Watt in concussion protocol after the game.
With 6:19 left in the first half in Sunday’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals. Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew scrambled to his right, and he was scrambled near the sideline.Minshew got up as if he’d just been shot in a Western, but nobody did anything about it. The Colts called six straight handoffs to running back Zack Moss after that (which is suspicious in and of itself), and then, Minshew threw a two-yard touchdown pass to tight end Mo Alie-Cox.
After the game, Colts head coach Shane Steichen said that as far as he knew, Minshew was never checked for a concussion. Where are these alleged independent neurologists who are supposed to buzz down and help teams identify these issues?
The only thing more dangerous than letting a player return to, or stay in, a game after head trauma is letting a player return to the field after multiple concussions in a short period of time. You can ask hundreds of pro football players from the past about that. Well, this is what happened to New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr, who started his team’s Sunday game against the Carolina Panthers despite two concussions in his last three weeks. Carr said that he wasn’t concerned about returning to play after those concussions, but maybe we shouldn’t let people with multiple recent concussions sign off on their own readiness.
I guess we can be relieved that the Texans got C.J. Stroud off the field and in the protocol after he hit his head hard on the field against the Jets, but that’s where we are – the Texans should be congratulated for doing something that every team should do, a lot of teams don’t, and the NFL really doesn’t care about.
Kyle: The Vikings and Raiders game. If you missed it, good for you, but the Vikings won 3-0 on a Greg Joseph field goal with 2:00 left in the game!
I’m not an anti low-scoring game person. Defense should matter and when dominant defenses are shutting down modern offenses in the same game it is truly fun to watch. I’m one of those people who enjoyed the Patriots-Rams Super Bowl to close the 2018 season. HOWEVER, what we saw in Las Vegas on Sunday was not a pair of dominant defenses at the peak of their powers shutting down good offenses. It was two offenses that looked like the fourth quarter of the last preseason game, but for an entire 60 minutes.
There were as many turnovers as points in this one. The teams went a combined 11-of-34 on third down and racked up a combined 433 yards on 124 plays! That’s a whopping 3.5 yards per play. Also, the Raiders had the same number of punts (eight) as they did first downs.
It was a truly abominable display of NFL football from both teams. Thankfully the Raiders are virtually out of contention, but the league will be worse off if the Viking somehow sneak into the wild card. They are a disaster and, speaking from experience, Nick Mullens isn’t going to save them.
