In this week’s “4-Down Territory,” Kyle Madson of Niners Wire and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire get into a few important items as NFL teams prepare for the first minicamps of the 2023 season.
- Now that compensatory picks are out of the picture, NFL teams will start signing the next levels of free agents. Which players are the best left on the boards?
- Which third-day draft picks will prove to be the best scheme fits for their new teams?
- Which 2022 non-playoff team did the most to get into the tournament in the upcoming season?
- Conversely, which team should have done more to match their 2022 postseason successes?
You can watch this week’s “4-Down Territory” right here!
Best free agents left for NFL teams to sign?
Now that the draft is over and minicamps are starting, there’s another important date on the NFL calendar – starting on May 2, the signing of free agent players no longer brings up the compensatory pick formula. Which means that NFL teams can go after free agents without worrying about losing future third-day draft picks. WIth that in mind, who’s the best free agent left on the market, and where would you like to see that player go?
Doug: Not sure about the best free agent left, but I’m certain that my favorite remaining name on the list is Justin Houston, the ageless edge-rusher who totaled 12 sacks, six quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback pressures for the Ravens last season at age 33. Houston can still get to the quarterback with pure power and a full palette of moves, and were I the Chicago Bears, I would be looking once and again at my edge depth chart, and offer Houston a very appealing one- or two-year deal to come in and reinforce perhaps the NFL’s weakest group at that position. The Bears spent the gross national product of France on linebackers this offseason; it might be time for one or two of relatively lowball veteran deals for any kind of pass rush help.
Kyle: Houston is a great answer. I’m gonna stay on the edge and go with Yannick Ngakoue. I know he’s not great against the run and his track record of playing four teams in the last three years isn’t great. However, Pro Football Focus had him down for 44 pressures and 12 sacks last year with the Colts. In 2021 with the Raiders he posted 62 pressures and 10 sacks. Some team is going to get him for cheap and get an outstanding pass rush specialist. I’d like to make a prediction that whichever team signs him is going to be lauded on Twitter for the move, and I bet it’s going to be the Chiefs.
Which later-round draft picks will be the best scheme fits with their new NFL teams?
Speaking of third-day draft picks, which 2023 selection (or selections) from the third to the seventh round stands out to you as the best marriage of player and scheme?
Doug: There are a couple of obvious third-rounders who stand out, like Texas A&M running back Devin Achane adding his legitimate Olympic-level track speed to the Dolphins 4×100 team, and Tennessee receiver Jalin Hyatt adding a serious vertical weapon to Brian Daboll’s Giants offense… but if we want to head deeper into the draft, I find the Browns’ selection of UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson with the 140th overall pick in the fifth round to be fascinating. Deshaun Watson looked horriblewhen he finally got on the field last season, and maybe that was just rust… or maybe it was the final component to one of the worst trades in pro sports history. If Watson can’t regain his former prowess, and someone else needs to step in, I like Thompson-Robinson’s potential as a mobile quarterback in a system designed for first-read openings.
I also like BYU receiver Puka Nacua to the Rams, because he can run all the short and intermediate routes preferred by Sean McVay, can run the kinds of receiver sweeps you’ve seen the Rams run for years. Nacua was selected with the final pick in the fifth-round. Not bad there.
Later in the draft, I really like the Steelers getting Purdue cornerback Cory Trice Jr. with the 241st overall pick in the seventh round. That’s a legitimate larcenous steal. Pittsburgh went with two massive press cornerbacks in this draft in Joey Porter Jr. (top of the second round) and Trice, and I think they both have bright futures ahead of them in a press man-heavy defense. If Trice had a cleaner injury history, he would have been a mid-round pick, at worst.
Kyle: Achane is absolutely my favorite Day 2 addition for any team. I genuinely think he’s going to be their No. 1 back by the middle of the season given what he can do as a pass catcher. Plus his speed in Mike McDaniel’s offense? Watch out, man. I don’t want to copy any more of Doug’s, so here are a couple other fun ones for me: Clemson defensive end KJ Henry joining a really good defensive line in Washington is a great landing spot for him. His length and motor will make him a hassle as a rotational edge rusher. I also think TCU cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson landing with the Rams is great for him. He’s super undersized, but he’s a superb athlete with well beyond the requisite amount of dawg in him to play in the NFL. He’ll get an opportunity to star in the slot in LA as they rebuild their defense.
Which NFL teams did the most to set themselves up for the playoffs this offseason?
Which non-playoff team from 2022 did the most in the draft to get to the postseason?
Doug: I have to go with the Jets here. Forget the Aaron Rodgers trade – even if Rodgers isn’t what he was at his thermonuclear best (and I don’t think he will be), most people who watched this team in 2022 knew that they were only a quarterback away from a playoff berth – especially after a 2022 draft that landed them the Offensive Rookie and the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner. Getting Iowa State edge-rusher Will McDonald IV with the 15th overall pick will pay off massively over time, especially since the Jets are smart enough to put him outside, instead of over and inside the tackles in Iowa State’s three-man fronts.
Add in a few value picks at positions of need like Wisconsin center Joe Tippman, Pitt running back Israel Abanikanda, and Old Dominion tight end Zack Kuntz, and outside of a few remaining offensive line questions, there just aren’t a lot of holes here. A lot depends on Rodgers, but once he starts throwing to these receivers, I think he’ll stick around for a while.
Kyle: So, this might get me kicked out of whatever section of football nerdom I reside in, but I think it’s the Lions. They were already in a good spot in the NFC North, and we can quibble with the value in their draft. However – I think Jahmyr Gibbs can play and I think he’s going to be really good in that offense assuming they deploy him in an Alvin Kamara-type role. Jack Campbell will be a fine LB on first and second down, and I genuinely think Sam LaPorta can be a difference maker for them in the post-TJ Hockenson era. Add Brian Branch into their revamped secondary and the Lions are cooking with gas on both sides of the ball.
And which 2022 playoff team should have done more this offseason to stay there?
Conversely, which 2022 playoff team should have done more in the draft, and may have to hope that free agency bails them out from a possible postseason vacancy?
Doug: It looks like the 49ers think they’re a Super Bowl team with the luxury of betting on backups in the draft to fill out a championship roster. The quarterback situation is unresolved, the offensive line is iffy outside of Trent Wililams, I’m not 100% sure about the cornerback group, and with all due respects to Steve Wilks, we don’t know how much the loss of DeMeco Ryans as defensive coordinator will affect things on that side of the ball. Outside of Penn State safety Ji’Ayir Brown at the end of the second round, I don’t see a lot of immediate starters in their draft class, and while I love the addition of Javon Hargrave in free agency, the worst-case scenario here has Sam Darnold running Kyle Shanahan’s offense behind a 4/5ths patchwork line, and a defense that doesn’t quite measure up from a coaching perspective. That’s far less a slam on WIlks than it is a roaring endorsement of Ryans’ talent, but the point stands.
Kyle: I’m pretty upset you took the Niners here, Doug, but it’s the obvious choice so I’m not going to hold any grudges. I guess I’ll go with the Chargers. I’m not super sold that Quentin Johnston isn’t just Mike Williams with WiFi capabilities. Tuli Tuipulotu is a good player, but I’m not sure how impactful he’s going to be in Year 1, and I’m not sure how much their pass rush will matter if Joey Bosa can’t stay on the field. I love an athletic LB in the second level, but I’m not sold that Daiyan Henley can be a game-changing player in coverage. Also Brandon Staley compared TCU to Alabama and Georgia in terms of the players they’re churning out. And that in itself is insane enough to put the Chargers at this spot.
