The opinions on the Minnesota Vikings are widespread and varied. A lot of the conversation with the Minnesota Vikings derives from the team being in so many close games and having excellent luck on a number of levels.
As we try to identify this team and where they sit in the lexicon of the NFL, it’s a smart thing to look at how different models and stats view the 8-1 Vikings.
We took a look at the overall stats of the team, Football Outsiders’ DVOA, PFF and the betting market tiers derived by Ben Baldwin to see how varied the Vikings look.
Football Outsiders DVOA
Offense: 17th
Defense: 19th
Special Teams: 25th
The idea behind DVOA is to have a predictive metric that looks forward and tries to predict how teams will play. Football Outsiders believes that the Vikings are an average football team. Their estimated wins, which is based on their play and opponents, is 4.5 wins. That signals that the Vikings have gotten lucky. Football Outsider’s own Aaron Schatz talked about some of their luck
In my writing about the Vikings, I've missed something important that explains why DVOA has them lower than other ratings. #Skol
The Vikings are doing amazing in penalty differential.
30th in penalties, 27th in pen yds
tied 5th in penalties against, 6th in pen yds against(1/2)
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) November 16, 2022
It isn’t quite as sexy as getting lucky in general, but little things like this matter and it’s a reason why the DVOA rankings are so low.
PFF
Offense: 78.5, 7th
Defense: 75.3, 7th
Special Teams: 66.1, 24th
Overall: 84.4, 4th
The Vikings have been really good according to PFF. They are consistent on both offense and defense with their overall performance being right up there at the top reflecting both their record and where they sit in the power rankings.
Is fourth about right? I think anywhere between one and five works well. Going 7-0 in one score games this season isn’t the most sustainable but they way the Vikings have gone about it leads to hope for the rest of the season.
Ben Baldwin's Market Derived Team Tiers
Ranking: 9th
The Best Week 11 Power Rankings On The Internet
A new team has joined the top tier! pic.twitter.com/x55uxkTvkT
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 16, 2022
These rankings are always fascinating to look at, as they are derived by Baldwin based on the betting markets and how they view teams. Similar to both DVOA and PFF, the sportsbooks have their own algorithms to decide what the lines should be and they come to similar conclusions.
What is really different about the betting markets is that they still don’t believe the Vikings are for real due to the nature of how close the games are. They are currently two-point underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys this weekend and used the date having the Vikings as 3.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots.
While the betting markets aren’t everything, they do mean something.
Pro Football Reference-League Leaders
Offense: 355.8 ypg, 11th
Scoring Offense: 25.1, 8th
Defense: 381.2 ypg, 30th
Scoring Defense: 21.2 ppg, 14th
The Vikings are most importantly a well-balanced team that has a point differential of 3.9 points per game. They have figured out a way to stay consistent and, despite allowing a copious amount of yards, they are holding teams to lower scoring numbers than their 30th ranking would suggest.
