The Minnesota Vikings go on the road to Mile High Stadium to face the Denver Broncos in primetime on Sunday at 7:20 p.m. CST.
These are two of the hottest teams in the National Football League with the Vikings on a five-game winning streak and the Broncos on a three-game winning streak.They face off in an important game with both being potential wild-card teams.
Denver is coming off of a monumental win against the Buffalo Bills that has them back in playoff talks, as they are only a game out of the seventh seed.
Minnesota controls their destiny as they have a 1.5-game lead on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC’s third and final wild-card spot.
Denver’s success has come from a resurgence from the offense that has them 10th in EPA/dropback and 11th in EPA/rush since their winning streak started in week seven.
It will be a difficult task for Brian Flores and this Vikings team to get them off track. But to do it, they will need to follow these four keys.
Stop Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams has been one of the most effective runners in football since Denver’s winning streak started in week seven.
Rush Yards per Game, AFC RBs, Since Week 7:
Javonte Williams (@Broncos) … 82.0
Josh Jacobs (L.V.) … 77.5
Jonathan Taylor (Ind.) … 71.5
Devin Singletary (Hou.) … 68.7
Derrick Henry (Ten.) … 66.7— Tyler Gorse (@Tyler_Gorse_) November 16, 2023
This would be a problem if the Vikings didn’t sport one of the best run defenses in the league during that time as well.
Minnesota is fifth in rushing yards per attempt allowed for 2023, and it has looked that good.
Harrison Phillips has continued to stay in the top ten of ESPN‘s run-stop win rate metric since the beginning of the season, as he has won 83 of his 191 run-stop opportunities (43%).
He and the rest of this Vikings front will be responsible for keeping Williams and Samaje Perine’s effectiveness to a minimum.
Stepping up for Jordan Hicks
Jordan Hicks was put on injured reserve after developing compartment syndrome in his right leg during the game against the New Orleans Saints. Hicks currently leads the team in total tackles and has caused havoc in both the run and passing game. Flores started his press conference this week discussing how much the loss of Hicks will affect the defense moving forward.
With Hicks out for the foreseeable future, someone else will have to step up to mitigate that lack of production.
The Vikings went out and re-united with long-time linebacker Anthony Barr earlier this week. But, even a four-time Pro Bowler in Barr will need time to learn and get used to Flores and his defense.
Rookie Ivan Pace Jr. and linebacker Troy Dye will be tasked with holding down most of the fort until Barr is up to speed.
Cause post-snap confusion
One of the strengths of Flores’ defense is his ability to confuse the quarterback post-snap.
Minnesota can show an all-out blitz pre-snap and by the time the quarterback finishes his drop, the defense has dropped eight into coverage.
Flores leads the league in both five-man pressures and three-man pressures in the NFL. His knack for post-snap deception to confuse the quarterback is well-documented.
The Vikings do not run Simulate Pressures at volume, choosing to attack offenses with 5+.
When they do Sim, this is typically their favorite, a 'weak' Safety Creeper using Smith.
An NTT usually accompanies the pressure.
In the clip, we get 2-Hanger or 2-Roll Weak. #ArtofX pic.twitter.com/vzclbyzAvP
— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) November 14, 2023
Flores’ ability to put defenders in places they aren’t supposed to be according to pre-snap alignment has been a key to why this defense has vastly improved from last season.
Great ex. of a PEEK Tech by the Vikings Akayleb Evans (#21) vs. the Saints.
Because of the angle speed out & the tempo of the out, he doesn't have to make a complete turn.
Instead, stays square, plants & drives on the WR.
>> Press, man-turn, peek, punish… 💥#ArtofX pic.twitter.com/vqwElehgX0
— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) November 14, 2023
Limit Russell Wilson's "Magic"
This was an excerpt from The Athletic’s Broncos beat writer Nick Kosmider and his piece on Denver’s huge win against the Buffalo Bills:
“‘He sees the coverage right away,’ Broncos coach Sean Payton said of Wilson, who completed 24-of-29 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns. ‘A lot of times, it’s (finding) the cavities in the rush. It’s not just dropping back and throwing over the rush.'”
Since week eight, Russell Wilson is third in completion percentage above expected. This advanced metric illustrates how much higher or lower a quarterback’s completion percentage is relative to what historical data suggests that it would be. This metric has a lot of factors involved, such as depth of throw, how open the receiver is, how much pressure is the quarterback receiving, etc.
So, Wilson is third best in the last three weeks in this metric, but his air yards per attempt in that same timeframe is dead last with a measly 4.7 yards.
Which begs the question, how is Wilson making his offense better when his throws are usually only going an average of five yards down the field?
The answer: Making plays like this.
COURTLAND SUTTON TOE DRAG TOUCHDOWN.
📺: #DENvsBUF on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/J3bHxYOoK2 pic.twitter.com/92QDtbHv70— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2023
That’s right, folks. Russell has thrown himself into a time machine and gone back to the mid-2010s when he could maneuver the pocket and evade defenders to extend plays for three or four more extra seconds before eventually finding a wide-open target down the field.
Flores will have to find a way to keep Wilson contained in the pocket and force him to beat Minnesota’s defense from a confined area. That means a controlled pass-rush plan from edges D.J. Wonnum and NFL sack leader Danielle Hunter.
That means a probable spy from Pace or Josh Metellus to limit his scrambling ability.
Whatever it takes to limit Wilson’s ability outside the pocket. If the Vikings let Russ cook, it could make for a long day.
