Recently Fortune spoke at length with four business leaders (who were granted anonymity in order to speak freely) about their views on the upcoming election. Though the interviewees were mainly moderates who'd voted for nominees from both parties in the past, they all expressed disappointment in both Trump and Biden, and marveled that despite deep talent in both parties, our pre-election democratic process had saddled voters with two such poor choices. For that article, I asked principally about economic issues such as immigration, industrial and energy policy, and regulation.
This time, I quizzed the three titans whom I managed to reach at short notice a different question: How did the bullets fired at Donald Trump, and that killed two people in the audience on July 13, change the odds that either candidate, or a replacement for Biden, would prevail by reaching 270 electoral votes? As in the first piece, I assigned each interviewees the name of one of the presidents immortalized on Mount Rushmore. "George" (for Washington) is a top asset manager who's served on a number Fortune 500 boards, "Tom" (for Thomas Jefferson) is the former chief of a large industrial enterprise, and "Abe" (for Lincoln) is the current CEO of a leading investment firm catering to the retail trade. I couldn't reach the original "Ted" (for Theodore Roosevelt) in time, but by chance, another business legend who happened to be dining with George when I called, contributed his own pointed opinions from across the table. This fellow—who's replacing the former "Ted" and taking his the name—founded a private company that's one of America's largest in its field, and now serves as CEO of a second player in the industry.
Not surprisingly, all of the respondents believe that shooting that missed murdering the former president by an inch or two lifted Trump's chances of winning. But they varied in their take on how big a boost the aftershocks would provide, or how they might influence his policies and rhetoric, as well as Biden's heretofore brutal tone towards his opponent, and the odds the Democrats would replace the president at candidate. Here's a gut check from the C-suite on how the rifle shots heard round the world could reshape the race.
Election predictions from the C-suite
George believes the event's symbolism elevated Trump's image as a strong man. "He didn't run for cover, he stood and raised his arms in defiance, he looked like a hero," says George. "Now, the race is totally Donald's to lose. If just has to stick to his message on the issues where he has he edge, the border, law and order—people don't feel safe—he'll win handily. He also needs to be a lot less belligerent in what he says, and it appears now that he finally gets it." George acknowledges that Biden holds the advantage on abortion, where his position is closer to the current president's, but adds that "every politician has a bad issue, and that's Trump's bad one, but it's not terrible."
As for the Democratic side, George thinks the weekend's earthquake makes it even more certain that Biden tops the ticket. "Before this happened, many Republican officials I talked to worried that another Democrat would be much tougher from Trump to beat than Biden. The Democrats were thinking along the same lines, that if they changed out Biden, they'd have a better chance of winning, that the logical thing was to go with someone stronger. But after the shooting, that's less of an issue. Trump's shown the Democrats he's strong enough to beat anyone." That awakening, he reckons, greatly reduced the previous, fairly high odds, that his party will push the president to withdraw.
When I called, George was sipping an iced tea alongside his friend Ted. While George leans Republican, he also voted for Bill Clinton and would have gone "all in" on Joe Manchin or another centrist. Abe's a stalwart Democrat, and his take on the his party's predicament diverges from his buddy's. "This isn't devastating in itself for the Democrats," he avows. "But to have any shot at all, we'd need a new candidate. The same old same old won't work. If there's anyone Trump can beat it's Biden, but not a young fresh choice. We need something else to sell, a Gretchen Whitmer." He emphasizes that Trump still suffers from deep weaknesses, including his felony convictions and sundry legal travails. "The press can change things instantly, just as they're doing now, and could switch back to reviving all of Trump's problems," he says. "For the Democrats, the right new candidate could still win." Unlike his pal George, Ted thinks that the Trump's triumphant moment will only spur the Democratic braintrust to push harder to supplant him. "The calls for him to step out will only get louder," he says.
A temporary high
Tom cautions that the public's positive reaction to Trump's heroism may no remain at the same awestruck highs for long. "How people are reacting isn't necessarily how it will play out three months from now," he cautions. "For now, it's a modest plus for Trump because of the courage he showed in handling the aftermath." The spectacle's importance, he asserts, rests in dramatizing the comparison versus Biden. "The president just makes this gaffe about 'vice president Trump' as his running mate, and then Trump in the shooting comes across as bravely energetic in the way he handled it, signaling that 'you can trust me in a crisis.' From what they saw on Saturday, the message to America will be that one guy can tackle a crisis, and the other guy can't."
Tom, who's an independent but leans Republican, takes the unusual stance that Biden should admit that he's made inflammatory statements that he shouldn't have. "He should be forthright in saying that he regrets saying things like putting a 'bullseye' on Trump and that his opponent's a threat to democracy. Those things riled up the Left but were the opposite of trying to build unity and tone down the fiery dialogue." Ted doesn't think Biden will make such a daring gesture, even though it might help save his candidacy. "Biden did say something about lowering the temperature on both sides," adds Tom, "but I don't think the 'both sides' argument will work with the people in the middle that both candidates need to win. Hey, someone shot at Trump, not Biden."
As for replacing Biden, Tom says it won't happen. "First of all, baring a disaster, they won't do it because time is so short," he notes. "It's just too late. Second, Harris, the obvious replacement, won't be better than Biden as a candidate." For Tom, Trump's bravura performance will widen his lead, but that he'll only maintain that advantage through November 5th if continues to restrain himself and champion unity. A return to his belligerent, pre-shooting pronouncements leaving no foe un-scorched, he says, could erase the goodwill generated by the bloody profile of courage emblazoned on our TV screens in the Pennsylvania countryside.
A transformational moment
Abe maintains that the assassination attempt transformed the election—and hopefully, will prompt Trump to moderate his extreme positions. "The shooting was a real show of strength for Trump across the board, displaying his passion for connecting with voters after he'd almost been killed. It was a spectacle that could have been choreographed by Oliver Stone." Abe's optimistic that Trump will view the brush with death as a "trial by fire that amounts to a two-minute hero's journey from politician to statesman." Abe, who's an ardent Democrat, believes that Trump's ideas will trend to where he's winning new voters, and that the extra support from independents could lead him to adopt more centrist positions: "His policy should follow his voters, and the tragedy gives him the moral high ground to take a new stance as a moderate."
Trump may now feel more comfortable that he can win the election, or at least curry favor once in the White House, if he follows part of he Biden agenda. "That would include Biden's industrial and chips policies, and his backing of Ukraine that's essential to protecting America," Abe declares. As for Biden, Abe says that the president's "getting more and more incoherent by the week, and that the pressures of the campaign are accelerating the deterioration." He believes that taking Biden's place following Trump's show of grit has gotten highly unattractive for the other possible replacements, who now would be virtually certain to lose. He acknowledges that the greening of a new President Trump is a wish that's now a better possibility, but may not happen. "It's more likely that he rises to statesman status only temporarily and after the election, goes back to being the Old Trump. At age 80 and after, they usually don't change."
According to our panel of moguls, Trump's electoral stock just took a big jump. The surge, they agree, could carry him back to the White House—if he can just dump the "I can't help myself mode" and stop talking crazy like the old Donald Trump who lost just four years ago.
