The PGA Tour heads back to the United States for the remainder of its season, starting with the fifth annual 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.
After watching Brian Harman take a commanding share of the lead in Round 1 at The Open Championship, he never relinquished his position, draining 10-foot putts to save par while converting clutch birdies and eagles to wind up cashing his 120/1 odds entering the major event.
We’ll be hard-pressed to see another 120/1 golfer secure the outright win at the 3M Open this week, primarily due to the decrease in overall talent within this field. That said, we’re still getting quite a few talented players at this event, likely due to the updated FedExCup playoff qualifying rules, which changed from the top 125 to the top 70 this season. Insert players like Justin Thomas, who is on the fringe of being eliminated from the FedExCup playoffs next month since he’s currently ranked 75th.
Before we get into our picks for the 3M Open, make sure to check out the offers from OddsChecker below, which will see you claim $1000s in first bet bonuses ahead of the 2023 3M Open.
Defending 3M Open champion, Tony Finau, returns to TPC Twin Cities as the outright betting favorite at 12/1 odds. Yet we’ve seen Finau in this same exact position only a few weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he wound up missing the cut at a course that was surrendering birdies and eagles at a high rate. There’s a reason we’re landing Finau at 12/1 instead of the traditional 7/1 or 8/1 outright favorite odds this week. It’s his inability to convert putts, ranked 99th in strokes gained putting this year.
TPC Twin Cities is a complete 180 from the links golf we’ve watched the past couple of weeks at Renaissance Club and Royal Liverpool. Water hazards are found on nearly every hole at the 3M Open, along with narrow, tree-lined fairways and a bigger number of shallow sand traps in comparison to their brutal pot bunker counterparts across the Atlantic Ocean. The winning scorecard has bounced between -15 and -21-under-par, with recent renovations made to increase the difficulty at TPC Twin Cities.
With only two weeks left in the PGA Tour regular season, players competing in the 3M Open will be aggressive with their clubs, attempting to qualify for a top 70 FedExCup ranking by the time the FedExCup playoffs arrive in mid-August. Keeping this in mind, let’s review the top outright betting odds for the 3M Open, followed by previous winners, a few relevant betting stats, and a course layout to review TPC Twin Cities at a more in-depth level. To finish, we’ll target certain players and explain why each one warrants an outright wager ahead of the 2023 3M Open.
3M Open Betting Odds
2023 3M Open Betting Preview
Previous Winners
- 2022 - Tony Finau (-17)
- 2021 - Cameron Champ (-15)
- 2020 - Michael Thompson (-19)
- 2019 - Matthew Wolff (-21)
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
- Strokes Gained Approaching the Green
- Driving Accuracy
- Sand Save percentage
- Scrambling
Course Layout
TPC Twin Cities was initially designed by Arnold Palmer and fellow Minnesotan, Tom Lehman, who also helped consult on the construction of this course. Running just over 7,400 yards as a par 71, this track has three par 5s and four par 3s scattered along its front and back-nine, with water hazards in nearly every direction. Whether it’s running parallel with the tee box and fairways, or flanking the slightly increased surface area of the greens, players will face constant reminders of how accuracy trumps power at TPC Twin Cities. Converting birdies will be a necessity, as the course has yielded -15-under-par or lower in all four of its previous PGA Tour events.
There are a few easy par 4s, running under 400 yards, while the 18th hole is a par 5 that extends nearly 580 yards, making it the second longest hole on the course. It’s guaranteed to cause chaos atop the leaderboard throughout all four rounds, as the dogleg right fairway is surrounded by water on either side. This comes directly after the challenging par 3 17th, which is essentially an island hole located on the other side of the body of water shared on the 18th. The sand bunkers are more prevalent here than the pot bunkers at links courses, but the depth is much more shallow. Players who rank high in sand save percentage should gain an advantage over others who aren’t as productive recovering from errant bunker shots.
Top Players To Bet In The Outright Market: 3M Open Winner
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) (Bet $100 to collect $1,700) Get the best Hideki Matsuyama odds at FanDuel
Last year at the 3M Open, Hideki Matsuyama withdrew after a +6 start in the first round. However, I like the Japanese native’s current form, logging three T20 finishes across his last five events, including a T13 at The Open Championship this past week. Matsuyama is seeking his first outright win of the PGA Tour season and sits 56th in the FedExCup rankings, which means he’ll need to continue performing well to qualify for the upcoming FedExCup playoffs. He’s a wizard with his irons, ranked 15th tee-to-green, 15th approaching the green, and seventh around the green. The putter and driver are big weaknesses, but he’s ranked ninth scrambling, so he can deliver birdies even without finding greens in regulation consistently. 16/1 is a bit short, but I like wagering on Matsuyama this week due to his urgent position and current form.
Sepp Straka (+2400) (Bet $100 to collect $2,500) FanDuel has the best Sepp Straka odds
Sepp Straka dominated the John Deere Classic after a sluggish even-par opening round, never letting off the gas en route to a scorching low -21-under-par win. He even logged a T2 finish at The Open Championship in bad conditions on a much different links-style golf course. The 30-year-old Austrian is feeling his rhythm at a great time, ranking 14th approaching the green, 56th strokes gained putting, and 18th total driving. His odds have already begun to shorten from 26/1 to 24/1 at FanDuel Sportsbook, so bet Straka’s current odds while there is still plenty of value attached as he looks to extend his heater at TPC Twin Cities.
J.T. Poston (+4200) (Bet $100 to collect $4,300) Go to FanDuel for the best J.T. Poston odds
After going T6 in back-to-back events, including at The Scottish Open, J.T. Poston wound up with a forgettable T41 outing at The Open Championship. Despite this mediocre finish, Poston wound up with a T11 finish at the 2022 3M Open, so he should have confidence entering Round 1. Poston is ranked 57th in strokes gained putting, nearly identical to Straka while remaining one of the most accurate iron players from most approach shot distances. Poston also ranks 53rd in sand save percentage, which is vital at a track like TPC Twin Cities. He hasn’t won since the John Deere Classic last season, but at 42/1, there’s enough here to justify wagering half a unit on his upside.
Eric Cole (+4500) (Bet $100 to collect $4,600) For the best Eric Cole odds go to FanDuel
If you’ve been following my betting previews this season, you’ll know this isn’t the first time I’ve recommended Eric Cole for an outright winner wager. Yes, he has never won a PGA Tour event, but he’s been creeping closer to this milestone for quite a while now. The 35-year-old Californian has regressed with two consecutive finishes outside of the top 40 recently. However, he has three T10 finishes this season, including a playoff loss to Chris Kirk at The Honda Classic. Cole is a birdie machine and possesses one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, ranked 22nd in strokes gained putting, so let’s back him at 45/1.
Ryan Fox (+5000) (Bet $100 to collect $5,100) DraftKings has the best Ryan Fox odds
It felt like all golf handicappers were confident wagering on Ryan Fox during The Open Championship last week, but he wound up delivering a brutal missed cut instead. The 36-year-old New Zealander has logged four T30 finishes across his last six events, including a T12 at Genesis Scottish Open, so he has the tools to produce low scorecards. Fox didn’t compete at the 3M Open last year, but he’s got strong irons and a good driver, which counters his pedestrian putting output. 50/1 is worth sprinkling when it comes to Fox’s outright odds in a weaker field at a course that rewards accuracy off of the tee.
