Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Chargers.
When does the potential turn into results?
Chargers fans have been asking themselves this for the better part of a decade. From the end of Philip Rivers’ tenure to the dawn of Justin Herbert’s career, the franchise has been high on expectations and low on results.
While immensely talented, Los Angeles is still searching for its first playoff win of the Herbert era. Last year, a 10–7 season was marred by a needless back injury to star receiver Mike Williams in Week 18, leading to a debacle during the wild-card round that saw a 27–0 lead evaporate in the Florida heat against the Jaguars.
Going into 2023, the roster is largely unchanged, with the only notable addition being linebacker Eric Kendricks, signed to a two-year deal following his release by the Vikings. And fellow linebacker Drue Tranquill left in free agency for the Chiefs. Otherwise, it’s the same team trying to erase last year’s painful memories.
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To do it, Los Angeles will need better health. In 2022, the Chargers watched Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater, edge rusher Joey Bosa, corner J.C. Jackson and receiver Keenan Allen miss a combined 45 games, while Herbert played most of the year with a rib ailment.
With health, the Chargers should be a playoff team. But so often, therein lies the problem.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Retaining Brandon Staley
Deciding not to fire Staley could propel the Chargers as they settle in for his third season ... or haunt them for years to come.
Staley came under considerable fire after playing his starters in the aforementioned meaningless Week 18 game, during which Williams was lost for the playoffs. Then, in the wild-card round, Los Angeles blew a 27-point lead despite being +5 in the turnover ratio.
Many believed Staley would be fired in the aftermath, but he survived despite Sean Payton being available. Ultimately, Payton landed with the Broncos, perhaps partially because the Chargers would have needed to pay the coach an unapproachable amount.
Regardless, Staley remains the coach of a team with aspirations of a deep playoff run. If Los Angeles falls short of that goal, it’s likely the Chargers move on and look for Herbert’s third coach in his first five seasons.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 6 to 9
Despite playing in a tough division and facing a second-place schedule, the Chargers have a reasonable slate ahead. However, things get tough in late October and early November, starting with hosting the Cowboys in Week 6 on Monday night.
After that, it’s a short rest and on to Arrowhead Stadium to see the Chiefs before returning to Los Angeles and drawing a winnable game against Justin Fields and the Bears. Finally, a cross-country jaunt to play the newfangled Jets.
If the Chargers can split these four games, they should be thrilled.
Breakout player to watch: CB Asante Samuel Jr.
Samuel is already recognized as a good player, but he has a chance to break into stardom entering his third season.
Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union/USA TODAY Network
Over two years with the Chargers, the former second-round pick from Florida State notched four interceptions. Then, Samuel stole three passes from Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence in the first half of the wild-card game last season.
Playing in a star-studded secondary alongside safety Derwin James Jr. and Jackson, Samuel is sometimes overshadowed despite being a versatile corner with tremendous cover and ball skills.
Don’t be surprised if he ends up earning an accolade or two in 2023.
Position of strength: Skill positions
Few teams have the firepower the Chargers possess.
Los Angeles has a trio of weapons on the outside including Williams and Allen, alongside first-round receiver Quentin Johnston from TCU. In the backfield is running back Austin Ekeler, who has led the league in touchdowns each of the past two years.
With Herbert under center, and behind an offensive line that includes All-Pro center Corey Linsley and Slater, the pieces are there for a league-leading group. If Allen and Williams can stay healthy—they combined to miss 11 games last year—the Chargers will be a force.
Position of weakness: Linebacker
Losing Tranquill is a big hit for the second level of the Chargers’ defense.
Last year, Tranquill became a full-time starter and was fantastic, totaling 146 tackles, five sacks and an interception. However, general manager Tom Telesco let Tranquill and veteran Kyle Van Noy walk, replacing him with Kendricks. Now, Los Angeles has Kendricks and 2020 first-round pick Kenneth Murray, who saw his fifth-year option declined in the spring.
If Kendricks doesn’t return to his previous form after a down year with Minnesota, the Chargers could be very weak at the second level.
X-factor: Kellen Moore’s ability to unlock the offense
For the past two years, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has essentially put handcuffs on Herbert. That’s expected to change with the dismissal of Lombardi and subsequent arrival of Moore.
With Staley being a defensive-minded coach, Moore should have full reign on the other side. Last year, Herbert tied for 31st with 6.4 air yards per attempt, despite having an excellent deep-ball target in Williams and the intermediate skills of Allen. Only Matt Ryan ranked lower of qualifying quarterbacks. In Dallas, Dak Prescott checked in at 10th (8.2 air yards) under Moore’s system.
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If Moore allows Herbert to display his rocket-armed talents on a consistent basis, the Chargers will be far more explosive.
Sleeper/fantasy pick: WR Quentin Johnston
Johnston enters a crowded wide receiver room in Los Angeles, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make an impact. Allen and Williams have both had injury issues, including last season when the duo missed significant time. In that sort of scenario, Johnston could see a bigger role in 2023. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Take the over on Herbert’s 4450.5 passing yards
Herbert exceeded this number in each of the past two seasons and nearly cleared this mark in just 15 games played his rookie year. He has to clear 262 yards per game to beat this, and barring injury, that should be easy enough for a fully healthy AFC West QB. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
