Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Steelers.
The Steelers’ 2023 roster is built like most teams in the Mike Tomlin era: with a dominant defense and a balanced offensive attack.
Pittsburgh will need the defense to be a special unit, with the AFC North featuring three star quarterbacks in the Bengals’ Joe Burrow, Browns’ Deshaun Watson and Ravens’ Lamar Jackson.
With Kenny Pickett as an unproven starting quarterback, many pundits are projecting the Steelers to finish last in their competitive division—something that has never happened during Tomlin’s 16 seasons in Pittsburgh. The team hasn’t had a losing record, either; Tomlin has the longest current streak in the NFL for most seasons as a head coach without one.
Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports (left, right); Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports (center)
The Steelers don’t appear to be a last-place team with a defense that features T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick. They also added veteran cornerback Patrick Peterson and rookie cornerback Joey Porter Jr., a second-round pick.
The offense also has playmakers with running back Najee Harris, tight end Pat Freiermuth and wide receivers Diontae Johnson, Allen Robinson and George Pickens. But for the Steelers to avoid the division’s basement, they’re also going to need Pickett, the 2022 first-round pick, to ascend in his second season.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Buying Pickett’s rookie flashes
Judging from Pickett’s body of work from his rookie season, it’s fair to wonder why the Steelers seemed content with making him QB1 in 2023 without any competition this summer. Pickett had a subpar stat line of 2,404 passing yards with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he averaged a lackluster 6.18 yards per attempt in 12 starts last season. But Tomlin is all about wins and losses, and the Steelers won six of their final sevens games in ’22 with Pickett as the starter. Pickett also displayed, at times, that he can be more than a game manager. According to Pro Football Focus, Pickett had the second-highest passing grade from Weeks 12 to 18, behind only Burrow. Now Pickett will need to put together a consistent Year 2 (with an uptick in yards per attempt) to truly prove he can be a franchise quarterback in Pittsburgh.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 16 to 18
The Steelers have a nice balance of winnable and tough games throughout their 2023 schedule, but the final three matchups might give them trouble, especially if they’re fighting for a playoff spot. In Week 16, the Steelers host Burrow and the Bengals, which could possibly be a critical game for the AFC North standings. Pittsburgh will then end the regular season with back-to-back road games in Seattle and Baltimore. The Seahawks might be one of the better teams in the league with the notable moves they made in the offseason, and the same can be said of Jackson and the Ravens, who welcomed Odell Beckham Jr. in March.
Breakout player to watch: WR George Pickens
Pickens didn’t have a 1,000-yard receiving season like fellow rookie wideouts Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, but he might have had the reception of the year in 2022. Pickens made a diving one-handed catch vs. the Browns in Week 3, which resembled Beckham’s memorable one from ’14. That was just one of many acrobatic catches from Pickens last season, and there could be plenty more in his second season if he and Pickett are able to improve the Steelers’ passing game. Pickens, a ’22 second-round pick, finished last season with 52 catches for 801 yards and four touchdowns.
Position of strength: Edge rusher
The Steelers missed Watt down the stretch last season, but it was an opportunity for Alex Highsmith, who notched a career-high 14.5 sacks, to prove he can handle being a No. 1 edge rusher. Now with a healthy Watt and the emerging Highsmith, the Steelers could have one of the best pass-rushing duos in the league. Watt recorded only five sacks after sitting out the final seven games due to injury, but it wasn’t that long ago that he had 22.5 sacks and won Defensive Player of the Year in 2021.
Position of weakness: Offensive line
The Steelers must be banking on first-round rookie Broderick Jones to have a fast start as the starting left tackle, given that there’s plenty of uncertainty across the offensive line. Center Mason Cole, guard James Daniels and right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor struggled as starters in 2022, which led to a lackluster rushing attack. Pittsburgh also added guard Isaac Seumalo in free agency for reinforcements.
X-factor: RB Najee Harris
Philip G. Pavely/USA TODAY Sports
Speaking of the poor rushing attack, Harris voiced frustration with his team’s run blocking last season, which contributed to his disappointing 3.8 yards per carry and drop-off in rushing yards last season. (Harris went from 1,200 rushing yards as a rookie to 1,034 in his second season.) But the Steelers are going to need the running back to find ways to make plays, regardless of how the offensive line performs. If Harris can’t create his own running lanes, he might need to do more in the passing game, with only 41 catches for 229 yards and three touchdowns last season.
Sleeper fantasy pick: WR George Pickens
Pickens showed flashes as a rookie. While his average of 9.8 points per game wasn’t eye popping, some of his highlight-reel catches certainly were. With a year of experience and an obvious rapport with Pickett, Pickens could be far better than his draft position would suggest. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Take the over on Najee Harris’s 975.5 rushing yards.
The volume will still be there for the running back who rushed for 1,000-plus yards in each of his first two seasons. Harris ranked sixth in opportunity share and eighth in total touches in 2023. Expect more of the same. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
