Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Saints.
It’s been a long time since the Saints sustained their relevance.
Since winning Super Bowl XLIV, New Orleans has only been victorious in one divisional playoff game. Now, entering its second season under coach Dennis Allen, and competing in a hideous NFC South, it’s time for the franchise to take advantage of signing quarterback Derek Carr this offseason.
While Carr isn’t a star, he’s a quality player. In eight years playing for the Raiders, Carr has thrown for more than 4,000 yards on four occasions. Now, he’s surrounded by a good offensive line and significant weaponry, including receivers Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, and running back Alvin Kamara. Of course, the big question is in regards to Thomas’s health: the pass catcher has played 10 games across the last three seasons.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (left); Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports (center); Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports (right)
If the offense can produce, the defense should be solid as well. Although New Orleans lost edge rusher Marcus Davenport, and defensive tackles David Onyemata and Shy Tuttle, there’s still plenty of talent. In the secondary, safety Tyrann Mathieu and corner Marshon Lattimore are studs, while the front seven has perennial All-Pro candidates in defensive end Cameron Jordan and linebacker Demario Davis.
The Saints have their issues, but in a division as weak as the NFC South this year, they could easily be a playoff threat.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Signing Carr to a four-year deal
New Orleans needed to upgrade under center, and it did so with the signing of Carr. Giving him four years is another conversation.
Looking at his deal, Carr is locked in for two years. If the Saints want to move on before the third, they’d have to eat $17.1 million, unless they go the post–June 1 route. Ultimately, it’s a smart gamble by general manager Mickey Loomis, although the cavalcade of annual cap crunches won’t be helped by another serving of potential dead money.
With Carr, though, the Saints have an opportunity to not only win their division, but also advance in the postseason. The conference is weak, and the Superdome is one of the best home fields in sports.
For this deal to ultimately be worth it, Carr must finally win a playoff game or two, plus form a good partnership with Allen. Anything short of that, and both time and money has been wasted.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 2 to 6
The Saints will be spending plenty of time away from home to start the season.
After opening at the Superdome in Week 1, New Orleans hits the road for four of its next five. This stretch starts with a date against rookie quarterback Bryce Young and the Panthers before heading north for a battle with the Packers.
In Week 4, the Saints go home for a clash with the Buccaneers before going back on the road for two more, starting with the Patriots and ending with the Texans. The opponents aren’t brutal, but the travel is.
Breakout player to watch: DT Bryan Bresee
The Saints don’t have a litany of contenders for this category, but Bresee makes ample sense.
Ken Ruinard/USA TODAY Network
For starters, Bresee is a 2023 first-round pick who, while at Clemson, notched 15 tackles for loss and nine sacks across three seasons. Now, he enters a defensive line which is undergoing a facelift, having lost the aforementioned Tuttle and Onyemata on the inside. As a result, Bresee should see a decent share of snaps alongside free-agent addition Khalen Saunders.
With veterans next to him in Saunders and Jordan, Bresee has a chance to make a quick impact for a team with playoff aspirations.
Position of strength: Secondary
At 31 years old, Mathieu may not be the first-team All-Pro he was with the Chiefs, but he remains a savvy veteran who created four turnovers last year. He’s a smart, valuable piece on the back end next to Marcus Maye, who has been a steady contributor during his six-year career when healthy.
However, the crown jewel of the back end is Lattimore. One of the best corners in football, Lattimore is a four-time Pro Bowler who consistently draws top assignments and comes out ahead. After playing only seven games last year, the 2017 first-round pick will look to bounce back.
Position of weakness: Outside linebacker
While Davis is one of the most underrated stars of the past decade, he is flanked by two big question marks at the second level.
Zack Baun and Pete Werner were both top 100 picks who have plenty to prove. Werner has shown flashes in his first two years, totaling 80 tackles and two forced fumbles across 12 games last season. As for Baun, he’s done very little, playing no more than 17 percent of defensive snaps in any of his three campaigns.
If New Orleans’s defense is going to remain a top 10 unit, getting increased contributions from Baun and Werner would be a boon.
X-factor: What does Trevor Penning contribute?
Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports
If there’s a player—outside of Carr—who could make or break the Saints, it’s Penning.
A first-round pick in 2022, Penning only played in six games and started one as a rookie. New Orleans needs the offensive tackle to not only stay healthy, but also lock down Carr’s blindside. With the right edge held down by All-Pro Ryan Ramczyk, the Saints could have solid bookends, giving the immobile Carr time to scan and throw.
However, if Penning is either injured or ineffective, New Orleans could be forced to rely on the short game, taking away Carr’s prolific deep-ball ability.
Sleeper/fantasy pick: RB Kendre Miller
In his final season at TCU, Miller rushed for 1,399 yards and 17 touchdowns. He could see an expanded role to start his NFL career if Kamara is suspended. In that scenario, Miller would be the second option behind Jamaal Williams. I’d take a late-round flier on the rookie. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Take the over on Chris Olave’s 1000.5 receiving yards
Olave had 1,042 receiving yards in 2022 with uneven QB play. Carr is a solid upgrade, and I don’t buy into the idea that Michael Thomas will be a threat to Olave’s opportunity. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
