Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the 49ers.
Kyle Shanahan’s era in San Francisco has been both successful and entirely frustrating.
Over the past four seasons, the 49ers have reached the NFC championship game three times. In the first, they smashed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers before blowing a 20–10 lead to the Chiefs in the final seven minutes of Super Bowl LIV. Two years later, they arrived at the conference title game again, this time relinquishing a two-score lead to the Rams in the fourth quarter.
Last season, it was a blowout at the hands of the Eagles, with starting quarterback Brock Purdy going out with a torn UCL in the first quarter.
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports (left); Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports (center); Sergio Estrada/USA TODAY Sports (right)
For Shanahan, it’s time. The Niners have arguably the league’s best roster, save for the uncertainty surrounding Purdy. And while that’s a massive caveat, the NFC is wide open, even with it. San Francisco has no excuse not to jaunt back to the final weekend in January once more and arrive at its second Super Bowl in five seasons.
If the Niners fall short, serious questions have to be asked about the ability to develop a quarterback, and where things go. Because knocking on the door is terrific—unless the door never opens.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Believing in the right side of the line
If there’s one clear weakness of the 49ers, it’s the right side of their offensive line.
This winter, San Francisco watched as right tackle Mike McGlinchey signed a five-year, $87.5 million deal with the Broncos. While the Niners probably won’t regret not matching that money, his departure does leave a significant hole on the edge. To replace him, general manager John Lynch is likely rolling with Colton McKivitz, who has started five games across three years.
Meanwhile, the Niners are hoping for a better performance out of second-year guard Spencer Burford, who started 16 games as a rookie last season. Burford was inconsistent at best, struggling with both run blocking and pass protection. Pro Football Focus gave him a grade of 49.6, a number he’ll hope to raise substantially in 2023.
While the left side is strong with future Hall of Fame tackle Trent Williams and guard Aaron Banks, the right side is a major question mark.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 12 to 14
Despite having a first-place schedule to contend with, the Niners don’t have an especially difficult slate.
However, things get tough come Thanksgiving night, with a trip to Seattle for San Francisco’s first game against its division rival Seahawks. The following week, the 49ers visit the East Coast for a rematch of the NFC title game against the Eagles. Finally, a return engagement in Week 14 with Seattle, for a game that could have massive implications on who wins the NFC West.
The big question is who will be under center for the 49ers by that time.
Breakout player to watch: DL Drake Jackson
Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports
Jackson is the pick, largely because he played well within a small sample size as a rookie.
The 2022 former second-round pick out of USC played only 33% of the defensive snaps last year, and yet he racked up three sacks. The number isn’t eye-popping, but considering he has Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave rushing the passer alongside him, don’t be surprised if Jackson takes advantage of some optimal matchups. Factor in the free-agent departure of Charles Omenihu, and the opportunity is there.
Don’t be surprised if Jackson becomes a key part of the rotation as a second-year starter.
Position of strength: Front seven
One could argue for the weaponry, but San Francisco’s front seven is the best football has to offer.
Last season, Bosa registered 18.5 sacks across 16 games, cementing himself as a first-team All-Pro and finalist for Defensive Player of the Year. Middle linebacker Fred Warner also earned All-Pro honors, notching 130 tackles, two sacks and an interception.
Add in a surrounding cast that includes stellar defensive tackles Armstead and Hargrave, and star outside linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and the 49ers will be able to defeat an offense in a multitude of fashions.
Position of weakness: Quarterback
Are there any other options to choose from? The Niners might be the only team in football with an All-Pro in every position meeting room outside of quarterback.
San Francisco is hoping Purdy will be there for the start of the season, but after offseason elbow surgery, it’s a risky bet. If he can’t go, the job falls to Trey Lance, unless newcomer Sam Darnold can beat him out for the job.
Regardless, the trio of Purdy, Lance and Darnold has upside, but there’s also reason to believe they’re the ones who hold San Francisco back from winning it all.
X-factor: Which Deebo Samuel are the 49ers getting?
While it’s easy to expect a bounce-back year from Samuel, should we? History says his All-Pro campaign could be the outlier.
Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports
In 2021, Samuel became a superstar in San Francisco, posting 1,770 total yards and 14 touchdowns. In his other three years, Samuel has combined for 2,271 total yards and 12 scores.
If the Niners don’t get the best version of Samuel, they’re suddenly mortal on the outside with Brandon Aiyuk manning the other spot. But if Samuel does regain his elite form, San Francisco has arguably the best group of weapons in the sport, including running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle.
Sleeper/fantasy pick: RB Elijah Mitchell
McCaffrey has missed a good chunk of games over the past three years due to injuries. Also, this duo did somewhat split the workload when both were healthy last season. Mitchell will be one of the top handcuffs, and he could etch out some flex value at times, too. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Take the over on Christian McCaffrey’s 900.5 rushing yards
This is a bet purely on health. If McCaffrey is healthy for all 17 games, he goes over, easily. McCaffrey averaged 68 yards per game with the 49ers in 2022. Between the two teams last season, McCaffrey totaled 1,139 ground yards. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
