MIAMI — Can a trio of Florida Republicans run for president at the same time and not get in one another’s way?
Coming from the same state might not be the major hurdle it once was.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez’s formal entrance to the presidential race, made official Thursday, means the state of Florida now has three prominent Republicans running for the White House simultaneously, a list that includes Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump.
It’s a rare development — even two candidates running from the same state has, historically, been considered unusual — and would seem to present a distinct problem for the entire trio of Republicans, forced to battle over home turf and mutual donors who they might otherwise be able to count on automatically.
But political experts and longtime strategists say those challenges are likely overstated in an internet-driven political era when geography matters less than before and a message that can appeal nationally matters more. Suarez, DeSantis and Trump will face challenges in their campaigns, they add, but it’s unlikely that living in the same state would be one of them.
“It doesn’t really matter that much that they’re all from the same state because two of the three have national profiles right now,” said Daniel Smith, a political science professor from the University of Florida.
Trump, he pointed out, has as many connections with voters and donors from across the country as he does in the Sunshine State, thanks to his tenure as president which gave him a national megaphone that reaches millions of people online.
“Is Trump really a Florida candidate?” Smith added. “He’s got a national presence. He gets his small donor contributions from across the country.”
Smith and other experts struggled to remember the last time a state featured three credible presidential candidates at once, all from the same party. But there are signs the dynamic is becoming more frequent: In 2016, for instance, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ran against each other. Both would eventually lose to Trump.
And in 2024, two candidates from South Carolina — former Gov. Nikki Haley and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott — are also running, pitting the Republicans against each other in a state slated to hold the primary’s third nominating contest next year.
It’s the kind of development, GOP strategists say, was harder to imagine in decades past but is becoming increasingly normal now.
“It is the natural consequence of the flattening of politics, media, technology and entertainment, all of the above,” said Eric Wilson, a digital GOP strategist. “Because you can build a political base that is not restricted by geography. Ten years ago, that was not really possible. You needed to have some sort of geographic advantage.”
Wilson said the ubiquity of information in the internet era has let candidates more easily reach an audience outside of their home states, building a network of supporters connected more by a shared ideology than a geographic adjacency. A message about the need for moderation on abortion rights, for instance, would have as good a chance as connecting with a GOP voter in Illinois as it would in the candidate’s home state.
Those connections, he added, are more likely to power donations, particularly as online small-dollar donors become a bigger and bigger part of a candidate’s overall fundraising.
“They all have the ability to reach beyond their home state or adopted home state,” Wilson said. “And they also have unique constituencies they represent. They all have their loyalists.”
Suarez in particular might benefit from having a message at least somewhat distinct from Trump and DeSantis, both of whom have promised to aggressively and unapologetically attack “woke” ideology and politicians. The mayor, who voted twice against Trump during the 2016 and 2020 presidential races, has instead struck a more conciliatory tone, emphasizing the need for the country to unite to solve its problems.
In fact, a super PAC supporting Trump, Make America Great Again Inc., criticized Suarez on the day of his announcement, citing his opposition to Trump.
“Francis Suarez represents everything wrong with swampy, RINO politics,” the press release said, referring to the phrase Republican in Name Only.
Suarez’s campaign might have bigger problems than his shared home state with DeSantis and Trump. The candidate is barely known nationally, lacking the profile of even second-tier GOP candidates like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence.
In a sign of his low profile, a Quinnipiac University poll of the GOP primary released Wednesday didn’t even ask national GOP voters if they supported Suarez. The poll mentioned 10 other Republican candidates instead, including North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder.
To qualify for the party’s first debate in August, candidates must show they received at least 1% support in three national polls (or two national polls and one survey of a state with an early nominating contest) and receive at least 40,000 unique donors, among other criteria.
Reaching the debate stage is generally seen as necessary to having a serious chance at winning the nomination.
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