Oddsmakers were completely stunned by the trade that sent Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers to the Milwaukee Bucks.
NBA players were comparably surprised by the blockbuster transaction. But the Bucks got a deal done and suddenly look like the favorites to win the Eastern Conference with their new and improved starting lineup. Their odds of winning the title skyrocketed after landing Lillard.
While many long assumed that Lillard was long on his way to Miami, the Bucks were hiding in plain sight. Their odds (+3000) suggested an implied probability of 3.23 percent, which was just the 10th-best among all teams in the league.
But for several reasons, we probably should have seen this coming a lot more clearly than we did.
1
There was clearly mutual respect between all parties
First and foremost, there was a mutual courtship between Lillard and Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo.
A few months ago, the former NBA Finals MVP was reportedly asked to name one player he would most want to play alongside and he mentioned Lillard. Meanwhile, last year, Lillard also tweeted that Giannis is the active NBA player he would most like to play alongside.
Antetokounmpo additionally selected Lillard with the first pick in the 2023 NBA All-Star Draft, surprising fans when he picked the Portland guard over his longtime teammate Jrue Holiday.
LeBron James seemed surprised by the decision and his dubious suspicions were proven correct after all.
2
Jrue Holiday had hinted at retirement
Although he was massively important in their run to win the NBA championship in 2021, the Bucks are one of the few teams who didn’t have a long-term point guard of the future on their roster.
Holiday suggested that he could retire after his current contract expires at the end of this upcoming season. He has since walked those comments back, but his deal only had one year remaining and has an expiring contract.
Lillard, meanwhile, has four more years on his contract with the Bucks due to his recent extension. That gives a long-term assurance for Antetokounmpo, who now knows his championship-caliber running mate for the next several years.
3
Giannis hinted he'd leave Milwaukee to continue chasing rings
When looking at teams that could have acquired Lillard, we should have only looked at teams with championship aspirations for as soon as next season.
Lillard is 33 years old, which means the window to win with him running your backcourt is the present. There were several teams like the Brooklyn Nets (+1800), Utah Jazz (+2500) and San Antonio Spurs (+2500) that had better odds of acquiring Lillard than the Bucks.
But none of them had the same urgency to win as Milwaukee, with Giannis commenting about potentially leaving the team if the front office didn’t create a championship contender.
Plus with a new head coach and new ownership, there was clearly a lot of change surrounding the organization. We should have seen this one coming at least as a darkhorse!
