The Tennessee Titans (6-3) are set to face the Green Bay Packers (4-6) in a Thursday night primetime showdown between the two No. 1 seeds from a season ago.
This is a massive game on the schedule for both teams. For the Titans, they need to prove they’re capable of beating high-caliber football teams.
A loss later on tonight and you can be sure that the narrative surrounding the Titans going forward will be how they only beat up on the bad teams on their schedule.
As for the Packers, they desperately need a win just to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Green Bay would be all but buried with another loss that would drop their record to 4-7.
The Packers are going to do everything possible to prevent that from happening, so this will be a four-quarter dog fight in all likelihood.
It definitely won’t be easy, but the Titans are more than capable of going on the road and winning this type of game against an extremely formidable opponent.
Having said all that, let’s take a closer look at the Titans’ keys to victory over the Packers.
Make the Packers’ offense one-dimensional
You could make a strong argument that the Packers’ best player on offense for the majority of the season has been running back Aaron Jones.
The UTEP legend is a Swiss Army knife that has already accounted for 966 total yards and five touchdowns.
However, approximately 76 percent of those yards have come on the ground (738). Even more impressive is the fact that Jones currently owns the fourth-highest yards-per-carry average (5.6) in the entire league (min: 100 carries).
Unfortunately for him, he’s facing a tenacious Titans run defense that is only allowing 85.1 rushing yards per game (second-fewest in the NFL).
In fact, since Week 3, this Tennessee run defense has been the most efficient unit by a wide margin. The Titans currently rank No. 1 in Rushing EPA (-0.271) and Rushing Success Rate (28.0 percent).
The #Titans defense continues to dominate.
Since Week 3, they’ve only allowed an average of 15.1 PPG while ranking:• 1st in Success Rate
• 1st in Rush EPA
• 1st in Rushing Success Rate
• 6th in EPA/play
• 6th in Dropback Success Rate*6-1 record over that span* pic.twitter.com/N2QtuiBcoZ
— Shaun Calderon (@ShaunMichaels31) November 15, 2022
Tennessee should have the advantage in this one as long as the Titans are able to continue their trend of limiting the impact of the opposing running game. If they accomplish this feat, they’ll likely leave this ball game with a victory.
Pass-rush must continue to wreak havoc
Saying the Titans’ pass-rush has been dominant this season would be a massive understatement, especially as of late.
Last weekend alone, the group produced 40 pressures and six sacks despite missing several notable names upfront.
Per PFF, Titans had 40 pressures in Week 10. Denico led the way with 10, followed by Weaver (8), Edwards (6), and Walker (5). No Bud, no Big Jeff, no problem. This defense is unreal.
— The Titans Wire (@TheTitansWire) November 14, 2022
In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, the Titans have accounted for a whopping 77 pressures and 10 sacks over their last two outings.
This week, the Titans could get some positive reinforcements back as superstar defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is listed as questionable after missing last Sunday’s game against the Broncos.
Tennessee was able to survive without No. 98 last weekend, but facing the reigning league MVP is an entirely different task.
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers seemingly finally found a rhythm on offense in Week 10. The future Hall of Famer connected with rookie wideout Christian Watson for three touchdowns en route to Green Bay’s first win in over a month.
Tennessee has to prevent the two from re-establishing this type of connection again on Thursday otherwise it could be a long night for the boys in two-tone blue.
The Titans’ best chance at preventing any type of rhythm from developing is for their tenacious pass-rush to take over and make Rodgers uncomfortable throughout.
Green Bay also has some question marks along the offensive line that the Titans can possibly take advantage of. At minimum, the Packers’ left side of their offensive line will be hampered in this one, as David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are listed as questionable.
Regardless of who’s out there, if the Titans’ defensive front can consistently make its presence felt, the Titans should be in a strong position to head back to Nashville with a 7-3 record by the end of the evening.
Pound the rock with Derrick Henry
Titans running back Derrick Henry is coming off his least productive game since Week 2. It was the first outing since then that the star ball carrier didn’t eclipse at least 100 total yards on the day.
Henry only rushed for 53 yards as he ultimately fell from being the league’s leading rusher to second place by the end of the weekend.
Tonight, Henry gets to face Green Bay’s 26th-ranked run defense which is allowing an average of 140.6 rushing yards per game. Since Week 4, Green Bay’s run defense ranks as the worst in the NFL.
The Packers run defense allows an average of 140.6 yards per game. The only team they've held under 100 yards so far this year is the Bucs, who are the worst rushing offense in the NFL.#Titans will miss Ben Jones, but they should still be able to run the ball tomorrow night.
— Mike Herndon (@MikeHerndonNFL) November 16, 2022
Last Sunday, the Packers allowed Cowboys running back Tony Pollard to carve them up for over five yards per carry on his way to a 115-yard performance.
Needless to say, the Alabama product has a favorable matchup on paper that he should be able to take advantage of.
In order for the Titans to win on Sunday, Tennessee must establish their dominance in the run game, which will also open things up for the Titans’ play-action attack.
Once Henry gets going, it’s inevitably going to force the Packers’ defenders to bite on every play fake, as they will have to respect the King’s abilities.
After the threat is fully established, this should give the Titans pass-catchers some favorable opportunities to take advantage of as well.
If the Titans are able to feed off Henry’s presence and produce a balanced attack off of it, they should be able to walk away with their seventh win over their last eight contests by evening’s end.
