The Jacksonville Jaguars need to string together wins to dig themselves out of a hole after a winless October. They got that started with a come-from-behind win in Week 9 against the Las Vegas Raiders, but making it back-to-back wins will be a tall task.
To improve to 4-6, the Jaguars need to spring the road upset against the AFC powerhouse that is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs have been to the AFC Championship in each of the last four years and have the highest scoring offense through the first nine weeks of the 2022 season. They enter as 9.5-point favorites against the 3-6 Jaguars in Week 10.
If Jacksonville has any hope of pulling off a huge road win, the team will need to win in these three categories:
1
Win the turnover battle
In both the Chiefs’ losses this season, the team turned the ball over twice and got just one takeaway on defense. Kansas City was also minus-one in the turnover battle last week when it survived in overtime against the backup quarterback-led Tennessee Titans.
While Patrick Mahomes is a scoring machine with 21 touchdowns, he hasn’t completely kept the ball out of jeopardy with six interceptions through eight games.
In the Jaguars’ three wins, they forced six turnovers and had just one giveaway. In the six losses, Jacksonville has committed 12 turnovers.
The margin of error against a team as efficient on offense as the Chiefs is razor thin, so the Jaguars can’t afford to be sloppy on offense and they can’t afford to not make plays on defense.
2
Keep Trevor Lawrence upright
The Chiefs passing defense has struggled to get off the field for much of the year with 17 passing touchdowns allowed through eight games.
While Kansas City hasn’t done well to force turnovers or stop most opposing quarterbacks, the team does have 22 sacks. That’s an average of 2.75 per game, which is above the league average, and well ahead of the Jaguars’ average of 1.78 per game.
Much of that pass rush has come from defensive tackle Chris Jones, who has a team-leading 5.5 sacks.
With the Jaguars in need of lengthy, ball-control drives to both score points and keep the Kansas City offense off the field, giving up sacks would be a disaster. It’ll be crucial that Lawrence — one of the least sacked quarterbacks in the NFL this year — stays clean.
3
Win the time of possession
The Jaguars haven’t really been a grind-the-clock team for most of this season, but they did have Travis Etienne rush 28 times for 109 yards last week.
To keep the Chiefs offense off the field Sunday, the Jaguars would be wise to take their time on offense and put together lengthy drives. While that traditionally means feeding a running back over and over, the Jaguars have done well this year to use short and intermediate passing to that end.
We probably shouldn’t expect to see another bell cow day for Etienne, but that doesn’t mean the Jaguars are going to turn into a quick strike offense throwing deep bombs down the field. Jacksonville needs to hunt for efficiency and little chunks at a time against a Chiefs offense that looks susceptible to that kind of attack.
