The Chicago Bears (3-7) will face the Atlanta Falcons (4-6) on Sunday, where Chicago is looking to break a three-game losing streak. Justin Fields is returning home to Georgia after a record-setting performance last week in a 31-30 loss to Detroit.
Like last week, the Bears will face one of the NFL’s worst defenses and should have a chance to score plenty of points. However, like last week they are facing one of the better rushing attacks and will need to find a way to stop the run. This season the Bears have been a three-quarter team. In the fourth quarter, week after week, the team has fallen apart.
Despite traveling to Atlanta, the Bears have a great chance to break their losing streak and win their fourth game of the season. However, they’ll have to address these three concerns to beat the Falcons in Week 11.
1
The Falcons have the fourth best rushing offense in the NFL
An unstoppable force will meet an easily movable object on Sunday when the Falcons put their fourth-best rushing offense against Chicago’s 30th-ranked rushing defense.
The Bears allow 142 yards per game and 4.7 yards per rush to opponents this season. If that isn’t bad enough, Chicago has allowed the most first downs via rushing. The average defense allows 37% of runs to go for a first down, and the Bears are letting 45% of runs go for first downs.
It could be a long day for the Chicago defense as a once familiar face, Cordarelle Patterson (67 yards and one touchdown per game), will get the ball often against the Bears. However, Atlanta has also found another contributor in fifth-round rookie Tyler Allgeier.
2
Marcus Mariota and the Falcons' aggressive passing attack
While Marcus Mariota ranks 22nd in total passing yards, he ranks second in intended air yards. The Falcons quarterback is taking deep shots with the football and looking to stretch the field vertically. In week 7 against Cincinnati, Mariota threw a 75-yard touchdown that traveled about 40 yards through the air.
The former Oregon quarterback is one of the more aggressive passers in the NFL and isn’t afraid to throw into tight coverage. As the leader of the Falcons’ offense, Mariota doesn’t throw the ball short. Instead, he’s asked to push the ball down the field.
Teams have successfully run the ball against Chicago and haven’t had to throw often, but when they do pass, the Bears allow the third most yards per completion. That’s a recipe for disaster against an offense that is looking for chunk yardage through the air.
3
Chicago's offensive decline in the fourth quarter
The Bears are playing their worst football when it matters most – in the fourth quarter. Starting with the quarterback, Justin Fields is only averaging 4.8 yards per attempt for a passer rating of 64.6, which ranks worst in the NFL. In addition, he’s thrown three of his seven interceptions in the final quarter of games this year.
However, it’s more than just the passing game that struggles. It’s the entire offense. During the season, the Bears need 8.6 yards to pick up the first down and generally gain 5.4 yards per play. However, in the fourth quarter, their yards per play drops to 4.5 yards. So again, it’s a combination of poor passing and poor running – yards per carry in the fourth quarter is the second lowest compared to the other quarters.
Adjusting for Atlanta’s 14-point win over San Francisco, the Falcons have won their games by 3.5 points this season. If it’s a close game and the Bears have their typical fourth-quarter meltdown, they will leave Atlanta with their eighth loss.
