The NFL loves to profess that it’s a “copycat league.” No one quite likes to lean into human nature and try the literal same things as professional football coaches and executives. With the Kansas City Chiefs officially establishing themselves as a dynasty, the inclination to follow their example will be stronger than ever.
For good reason.
But there’s always the danger of gleaning the wrong conclusions from a team’s Super Bowl victory. This is where also-ran NFL teams get themselves into trouble — they almost seem to think replicating someone else’s success is seamless and painless. It never is, it never will be, and this thought process is precisely how many people in the league eventually lose jobs.
As the Chiefs begin an offseason ahead of a three-peat pursuit, let’s take a look at some of the wrong lessons their latest championship might teach NFL leaders. Put another way: If you want to win a Super Bowl in this era, you won’t follow the Chiefs’ footsteps to a tee.
1
You don't need quality receivers to win
With all due respect to certain former NFL general managers (cough, cough), the Chiefs’ utter lack of quality receivers was the only reason their repeat title was ever in doubt. Kansas City had a top 10 offense, defense, and special teams in DVOA efficiency in 2023 and yet still crawled through parts of the regular season because of its lack of dynamic playmakers.
The Chiefs are now the poster child for not paying a WR. Will other teams adopt and tamp down values of this years mediocre group of UFA WR’s ?
— Randy Mueller (@RandyMueller_) February 13, 2024
Beyond being the league leaders in drops, if 1. Marquez Valdes-Scantling catches a fourth-quarter bomb against the Philadelphia Eagles, and 2. Kadarius Toney catches, well, anything against the Detroit Lions; the Chiefs are likely the AFC’s No. 1 seed. There is never a conversation about how hard their playoff road was with even semi-competent flankers because they would’ve had home-field advantage. It truly made that much of a difference.
Kansas City romped through the playoffs on the strength of an exceptional quarterback who learned to scale back and a defense that shut down some of the NFL’s finest offenses. The margin for error was extremely thin, though, expressly because of their receivers. How the Chiefs likely attack their receiver needs this offseason will demonstrate to everyone else that they know they succeeded despite their biggest flaw being a rusty anchor.
If I’m a team trying to chase down the Chiefs, I follow their coming free agency and draft approach, not them winning by the skin of their teeth because no one could get open.
2
You can coast through the regular season and still win
Traditionally, the NFL regular season has been something most teams take very seriously. The nature of a 17-game campaign means every win (and defeat) carries extra weight in the context of a full year. It also means that teams who push themselves to their limits during the fall are usually appropriately rewarded with higher postseason seeds and more advantages in the crucible of January football.
But the way the Chiefs struggled at intermittent points and still dominated everyone else once it was single-elimination suggests that regular-season football isn’t as critical as we once believed. It almost makes one think that the NFL regular season is somewhat equivalent to the long grinds of the NBA and NHL’s respective 82-game campaigns — where players sometimes notoriously turtle for extended periods so they can save their energy for when the games really matter.
This would be wrong. The Chiefs are an exception to the rule for one good reason: No. 3 seeds (or any lower variety) winning the Super Bowl seldom happens in the modern era.
Since 1975, a No. 1 seed from either conference has won the Super Bowl on 27 out of 51 occasions. A No. 2 seed has won 10 times. Every other playoff seed combined has won just 13 Super Bowls in that time frame. With recent changes to the postseason field giving the top seed the only playoff bye and, thus, the only real week of rest, this trend will likely favor the best regular-season teams even more in the future.
If you’re a future prospective contender who wants to coast a little like the Chiefs, you should recognize that they repeated from a No. 3 position because they have the best quarterback and coach in the sport, who give them a chance in every game.
Not because they were purposely saving their best football for the winter.
3
Leaning on an elite defense first to win a title is A-OK
One of football fans’ favorite axioms about the game is “defense wins championships.” There is nothing quite like professing that the “more physical” side of the ball is why a team won a title. While this is true in the sense that it’s essential your defense isn’t comprised of Swiss cheese and can actually get timely stops, it’s not what galvanizes wins in February.
The Chiefs’ elite defense, with wrecking ball Chris Jones serving as the mainstay, had 10 new starters compared to their win in Super Bowl 54. General manager Brett Veach invested multiple high-level draft picks — including sophomore riser Trent McDuffie — over the last few years to ensure Kansas City played a more complementary brand of football. With the Chiefs’ offense struggling this year, it was their defense often taking the reins and keeping them above water.
And yet, even the Chiefs know that relying on the defense solely would be a huge mistake. If you are a defensive team, there is no margin for error. You can play 55 of 60 perfect snaps against a Super Bowl-caliber offense, but those five otherwise marginal plays might serve as the positive difference for the opposition anyway. Because great quarterbacks usually find a way to break through for a handful of key moments. That’s what they do.
The Chiefs had the luxury of investing in their defense because they had Mahomes, one of their great quarterbacks. They knew (or hoped?) he’d eventually come through and help the offense carry its weight. If Mahomes never gets the Chiefs’ attack back on track, Jones never has the opportunity to save this year’s Super Bowl. The game itself doesn’t get to overtime in the first place.
Timely defense wins championships. But great quarterbacks will always reign supreme.
