Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National where Rory McIlroy completed the elusive career grand slam, the PGA Tour heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. Hilton Head Island is a golfer's paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA Tour.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,099 yards. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree-lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from "bomb-and-gauge" type golfers.
The field is loaded this week with 72 golfers. The RBC Heritage will once again be a $20 million signature event. Most of the best players on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama.
Past Winners at Harbour Town
- 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
- 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
- 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- 2019: CT Pan (-12)
- 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
- 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
Key Stats For Harbour Town
Let's take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category.
Strokes-gained approach
Approach is very important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are the second smallest on the PGA Tour, roughly half the size of the average greens on the PGA Tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Collin Morikawa (+1.19)
- J.J. Spaun (+1.14)
- Sami Valimaki (+1.04)
- Shane Lowry (+1.02)
- Justin Thomas (+0.96)
Good drive percentage
The fairways at Harbour Town are tree-lined and feature many dog legs. It’s difficult to overpower the golf course and accuracy is far more important than power.
Good drive percentage over past 24 rounds:
- Aaron Rai (87.9%)
- Collin Morikawa (87.6%)
- Russell Henley (85.1%)
- Lucas Glover (84.6%)
- Brian Campbell (84.5%)
Strokes-gained at Pete Dye designs
Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.
Strokes-gained at Pete Dye designs per round over past 36 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.16)
- Xander Schauffele (+2.44)
- Justin Thomas (+2.36)
- Ryo Hisatsune (+2.03)
- Min Woo Lee (+2.02)
Strokes-gained short game
Strokes-gained short game is a combination of around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.
Strokes-gained short game over past 24 rounds:
- Min Woo Lee (+1.46)
- Russell Henley (+1.18)
- Denny McCarthy (+1.18)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+0.93)
- Corey Conners (+0.90)
Green in regulation percentage
The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential -- golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.
Green in regulation percentage over past 24 rounds:
- Russell Henley (71.5%)
- Collin Morikawa (70.4%)
- J.J. Spaun (69.9%)
- Xander Schauffele (69.7%)
- Sepp Straka 68.8%))
Course history
Course history tends to be extremely sticky at Harbour Town.
Course history over past 36 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.64)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.30)
- J.T. Poston (+1.72)
- Ludvig Åberg (+1.35)
- Cameron Davis (+1.31)
Comparable Course Rankings
This season, I am going to generate a rankings list of the best players cumulatively at the comparable courses. For Harbour Town, I am using TPC River Highlands, Waialae, Sea Island (Seaside), TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, Sedgefield, Pebble Beach and Colonial.
Comparable course player rankings:
1.) Scottie Scheffler
2.) Xander Schauffele
3.) Wyndham Clark
4.) Ludvig Åberg
5.) Justin Thomas
6.)Shane Lowry
7.) Patrick Cantlay
8.) Russell Henley
9.) Lucas Glover
10.) Collin Morikawa
The RBC Heritage Model Rankings
Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed -- Strokes-gained approach (23%), Good drive percentage (17%), Strokes-gained short game (14%), Strokes-gained on Pete Dye (12%), Comparable courses (10%) and Green in regulation percentage (12%)
- Collin Morikawa
- Scottie Scheffler
- Russell Henley
- Patrick Cantlay
- Bud Cauley
- Daniel Berger
- Justin Thomas
- Sepp Straka
- Brian Harman
- Aaron Rai
Last week's picks results for the Masters:
Collin Morikawa (22-1): T14
Justin Thomas (25-1): T36
Joaquin Niemann (40-1): T29
Sergio Garcia (80-1): MC
Dustin Johnson (100-1): MC
Justin Rose (110-1): 2nd
2025 RBC Heritage Picks
Justin Thomas +2000 (DraftKings)
Justin Thomas didn’t play well at the Masters but history has shown us that playing well at the Masters has very little relevance when it comes to the ability to contend at the RBC Heritage the following week.
The last time we saw Thomas at a regular PGA Tour event, he was storming the leaderboard on Sunday at the Valspar Championship. He didn’t get the win, but he showed a weekend gear he’s lacked for the better part of two seasons during his winless streak. A week before that at the Players, Thomas shot a course-record 10-under-par 62 on Friday, getting himself back in the mix after a disappointing first round.
Last year, Thomas finished T5 at Harbour Town, which is a course that oftentimes requires players to gain experience playing multiple times before winning. Short game and putting is a requirement here, and the two-time major winner continues to gain strokes with the putter and has done so in seven of his nine starts this season.
A few weeks ago, I said Justin Thomas was back, and it was only a matter of time before he won. I’m sticking to my guns on this one.
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
It’s been a disappointing start to the 2025 season for Patrick Cantlay. Despite striking the ball well at the Masters, where he ranked 18th in the field in strokes-gained approach and 14th in strokes-gained off the tee, he only managed to finish T36.
However, the extended losing streak will now have a real chance to be halted as Cantlay heads to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his seven trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include four third places (2017, 2019, 2023, 2024) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course (+2.30), only trailing last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler.
In his past 24 rounds, Cantlay ranks 6th in strokes-gained approach, 9th in strokes-gained on Pete Dye designs and 10th in green in regulation percentage.
Cantlay has been extremely close over the years at Harbour Town, it feels inevitable that he’ll break through for a win here one of these years.
Tommy Fleetwood +3300 (FanDuel)
2025 has been the year of the Europeans thus far. Last week, we saw Rory McIlroy win the Masters, capturing the career grand slam. Additionally, McIlroy has two other wins along with European Ryder Cup players Sepp Straka, Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg all landing in the winners circle. Justin Rose, who’s a European Ryder Cup stalwart, managed to make it to a playoff as a result of a Sunday charge, narrowly losing out to McIlroy on late Sunday afternoon.
While he hasn’t shown the ability to close out a tournament in the United States, I believe Fleetwood is next in line for the Europeans. He hasn’t contended much this season, but he’s been playing strong and consistent golf through the first part of the year.
Fleetwood has finished in the top 25 in three of his five trips to Harbour Town, with his best finish coming in 2022 (T10). Last year, the Englishman charged up the leaderboard on Sunday at the Masters to finish T3. History has shown, with the exception of Scheffler, that players who finish extremely well at the Masters tend to struggle at the RBC Heritage. I’m much more comfortable with Fleetwood’s T21 finish this week when it comes to his ability to contend at Harbour Town.
Fleetwood is a player that thrives on strategic golf courses and can lay up in the fairway and hit a long iron as well as most players on Tour. His putter hasn’t cooperated this season, but I still believe the 34-year-old is a good putter who will figure it out.
My philosophy has always been to bet on talent and it’ll eventually come through rather than accept the narrative that a player can’t win. Back to “Tommy Lad” we go.
Daniel Berger +6500 (DraftKings)
On paper, Harbour Town feels like the perfect spot for Daniel Berger to get his first win since the 2021 Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The 32-year-old seems to have fully returned to form after dealing with injuries over the past few years, and is playing great golf so far in 2025.
Berger has finished in the top-30 of the leaderboard in seven consecutive starts. In all seven of those starts, the 32-year-old has gained strokes on approach, around the green and putting. He’s gained strokes off the tee in six of those seven starts.
In his last three trips to Harbour Town, Berger has finished T3, T13 and T21. He’s a shorter hitter who drives the ball straight and can spike with the irons. He’s also a very good putter, which is the ideal skill set for the golf course. In the field, Berger ranks 5th in strokes-gained total on Pete Dye designs, 8th in good drive percentage and 9th in strokes-gained short game.
Berger has all the tools to conquer Harbour Town this week.
Akshay Bhatia +6500 (DraftKings)
At first glance, Akshay Bhatia may not seem like the type of player who would fare well at Harbour Town. However, when looking at his statistics this season, he checks all the boxes of what I’m looking for this week.
Bhatia has been absolutely elite with the putter this season. In 2025, Bhatia ranks 5th in the field in strokes-gained putting. He is also extremely accurate off the tee and ranks 10th in the field in total driving.
A few weeks back, the 23-year-old finished T3 at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye design. Not only did Bhatia prove he can play well on Dye’s quirky setups, he also displayed the ability to compete with one of the best fields in professional golf.
Bhatia is a good winder player who can step up to the challenge if things get tough this week.
2025 RBC Heritage Props
Ryo Hisatsune First-round leader +9000, (BetMGM), Top 20 +330 (DraftKings)
I am extremely high on Hisatsune this week. If this was the RBC Heritage of old, he’d probably be my pick to win. However, with the signature status of the event it feels like a bit too much too soon for the talented young player from Japan.
Hisatsune is an accurate driver of the ball and has a great short game. He’s fared well at shorter comparable courses over the past few years. He has a T3 at the Wyndham Championship and a T17 at the RSM Classic. The 22-year-old is coming off a T5 at the Valero Texas Open.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 RBC Heritage Betting Models, Props, Picks: Iron Play and Short Game Will Be the Key Factors at Harbour Town.
