If the 2025 NFL draft started today, the New Orleans Saints would be picking at tenth overall. They’re the league’s only five-win team, and their advantage in the strength of schedule gives them an advantage over the six-win San Francisco 49ers; San Fran’s opponents have combined for a .566, giving New Orleans a tiebreaker at .507 going into the final week of the regular season.
So we’ve established that No. 10 is their floor. It’s where they’ve been for several weeks despite a couple of losses. Obviously they didn’t choose this, but it’s been a bad year for the Saints to go belly-up. Nine other teams have lost 12 or more games, which is a huge outlier compared to other years. Four have lost 13 games, so hypothetically the highest the Saints could pick is fifth, with a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday putting them at 5-12. Here’s why their true ceiling is lower than that.
Just look at the teams ahead of them, all of whom go into Week 18 with a 4-12 record:
No. 5 overall: Jacksonville Jaguars (SOS at .474)
No. 6 overall: Carolina Panthers (SOS at .496)
No. 7 overall: New York Jets (SOS at .500)
No. 8 overall: Las Vegas Raiders (SOS at .544)
No. 9 overall: Chicago Bears (SOS at .555)
The idea that the Saints could move up hinges on any of these five teams winning. The problem is that even if they all finish at 5-12, the Jaguars, Panthers, and Jets have a tiebreaker with the Saints thanks to their lower strength of schedule. It’s unlikely any of those teams’ SOS would improve enough to make a difference after Week 18, so really the best the Saints could hope for is moving up to eighth or ninth.
What would that take? A move up would require the Raiders to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Las Vegas, while the Bears need to upset the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Chargers and Packers have both clinched wild-card seeds but neither playoff team is resting their starters with seeding still undetermined in Week 18. They’re both playing to win.
So look for the Saints to be stuck at tenth (win or lose in Tampa Bay) once the dust settles. There’s a slim chance they could move up to eighth or ninth, but it’s just not likely. They haven’t gotten many breaks this season, and it doesn’t look like their fortune will change much after Sunday’s final whistle.
