You can crack a window and feel it in the air: it’s Masters week. As ever, the first major of the season is packed with storylines and a field of contenders (plus a handful of pretenders) are set to tee off later this week. Here to break it down we have once again convened a panel of Sports Illustrated golf writers and editors: Jeff Ritter, John Schwarb, Max Schreiber and Matt Vincenzi, along with Iain MacMillan, Cody Williams and Brian Giuffra, three betting experts from our partners at SI Betting and FanSided. Here are the odds on every player in the Masters field. On to Augusta.
Like each of the majors from last year, Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear favorite. At the time of this writing, he’s a robust +450 on DraftKings. Rory McIlroy (+650) is the second choice, followed by Jon Rahm (+1400) and a tie between Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Åberg (+1600). Do the books have the top five correct?
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: You can’t argue with the top two, though Scheffler’s odds are shorter than they should be given his form this year and the fact that no one has won back-to-back Masters since Woods in 2001-02. I wrote about Aberg and Morikawa’s odds jumps, which I think are justifiable. Xander and Bryson are the only people you could argue to be in the Top 5, but neither, in my opinion, deserves to be over this group.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: The top five are correct, but I’d have rearranged the order a bit. It’s tough to not have Scottie as the favorite as a player who’s won two of the past three years, but with how the season has played out so far, I feel as though McIlroy is the man to beat. Scheffler can get by most weeks with less than his best stuff, but that’s a big ask in a major championship.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: Is it a little crazy that the guy who won half the majors last year is sixth on the board? Oddsmakers are definitely playing “what have you done for me lately” with Xander Schauffele, but that also smells like opportunity. Hmm..
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: It’s definitely right to have Scottie and Rory at the top of the odds board, but I’m also not going to get overly upset about anything behind them. You could definitely quibble with Åberg given some inconsistent form since his win at the Genesis and perhaps the fact that Rahm hasn’t been in as good of form on LIV as the likes of even Dustin Johnson or Bryson DeChambeau. But it’s a hodgepodge in that Tier 2 that I don’t see much merit in trying to pick apart given that they should ostensibly just be grouped around one another.
Max Schreiber SI Golf: Rahm seems a little too high on the list. Yes, he won at Augusta two years ago, and nobody should argue that he’s still one of the game’s best talents. However, it’s difficult to judge his—or any LIV player’s—form heading into the year’s first major, even though Rahm hasn’t fared worse than T9 in five starts this year. Then again, does Morikawa’s five top-20s, with two runner-ups, all in PGA Tour signature events, hold more weight than Rahm’s body of work this season? In his Masters title defense, Rahm finished T45. If he’s currently closer to the player he was two years ago, I see him more with a strong result this week and then carrying the momentum to win the PGA or U.S. Open—similar to Koepka in ‘23, who was runner-up at the Masters that year and then won the PGA.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I might’ve had Åberg as the third choice but his MC in San Antonio last week doesn’t exactly inspire. This feels like the right top group, but none of them are my choice to win.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: I get that Ludvig Aberg finished second at this event last year, but I think he’s one of the most overvalued golfers in the betting market right now. Yes, he has a win at the Genesis Invitational this season, but he has also posted just one other top 20 finish, which came in a T5 at The Sentry. He missed the cut at the Players, finished T42 at the Farmers Insurance, and was outside the top 20 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I’m not sold on him being a top five contender this week.
Let’s focus for a moment on McIlroy, who appears to enter in great form after winning at Pebble and Sawgrass earlier this season. We’ll have to check the archives to confirm, but it feels like we ask this every April: is this week now or never for McIlroy at Augusta?
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: How could you say no to this? McIlroy is playing the best golf I’ve seen from him since his 2011 win at Royal Liverpool. Everything is setting up perfectly for him this year, from venues to his game. If he doesn’t win a major this year, it’s fair to wonder if he ever will win another. That starts at the Masters, where he’s better set up for a win than he has been in, what, decades? I’m sure he knows that fact too. It will be fascinating to see how he handles that pressure.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: “Now” certainly seems to be the right time for McIlroy to win at Augusta, but I don’t believe it’s “now or never.” The 35-year-old still has a 5- to 7-year window where he should be one of the favorites at the Masters every time he tee’s it up. With that said, the scenario for McIlroy this year does feel almost too good to be true. His game has peaked at the right time and both Scheffler and Schauffele have a relative lack of competitive reps after coming back from their respective injuries.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: A thousand times yes. He’s well in form, has shown some edge (see phone-gate at TPC Sawgrass) and distancing himself a bit from the constant reunification dialogue has done a lot of good. Green jackets aren’t handed out on form and intangibles, and I don’t think he gets one this week—but a hot take can be made that this is his last best chance.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: It’s always now or never for Rory at Augusta at this point in his career, especially when you also factor in the decade-long major drought beyond him needing a green jacket to complete the career grand slam. But as has already been mentioned, McIlroy is playing complete golf. The driver is still the weapon it always has been, but it appears he’s found a higher level of comfort with his wedges and on approach, not to mention he’s been putting lights out. This is the most complete form I’ve seen from him coming into Augusta, so that only ramps up the undeniable pressure.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: This certainly feels like his best opportunity in years (more on that later), but if McIlroy doesn’t slip on the green jacket this Sunday, whether it’s after a runner-up finish or a missed cut, he’ll likely win a few more PGA Tour and/or DP World Tour events in the next year and still be a top-5 player in the world when next April comes along. Therefore, we’ll be asking this same question again.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Given that McIlroy has two wins this season and the only player in front of him in the rankings looks shakier than a season ago, it’s a great setup. When he was in his 20s, McIlroy was a particularly strong “soft course” player, and we used to flag tournaments, and especially majors, where rain made things a tad squishier. Well, it’s going to be wet and cool in Augusta this week. I would very much like to see McIlroy in green on Sunday. Despite all of this, I’m wary of betting on it…but maybe I can talk myself into it one more time as this roundtable continues.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: It’s certainly not “now or never” for McIlroy this year, but his opportunities are certainly dwindling, and he seems to be in some of his best form at this time that we’ve seen in recent years. This one will sting extra hard if he can’t find a way to get the job done, or at least be in contention on Sunday.
Let’s pause for a moment and just consider how great this upcoming week is. The Masters is the biggest betting event in golf. What’s your favorite betting event in all of sports?
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Ask any of my coworkers or friends and they’ll verify I’ve said Masters week is my favorite of the sports calendar and a big reason is the betting. The lead-up is electric and the live betting markets are robust. Week 1 of the NFL season is my next favorite.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: The Masters is a great betting week, but with the smaller field and past champions included, we usually get juicier odds for the PGA Championship and U.S. Open, and therefore I prefer those from a betting perspective.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: Put it this way, I made plenty of Vegas runs in my younger days and don’t really need to get back—but I’d make an exception for a first-week March Madness junket. That’s an all-day betting fiesta times four. The Masters isn’t the same from a live-betting perspective.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: The Masters is second to none in this department for me. Just generally, getting investment in golf week-to-week is what really gets my juices flowing, so you add in the prestige and excitement of Masters week and it’s a fever pitch for me. Shouts also to the hopefully-coming-back Match Play and the Ryder Cup as well, but there’s no time I’d rather get over my skis then when we’re heading to Augusta.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: I’m not the biggest gambler—some of my family members are pleased to hear that—but it’s March Madness and any NASCAR race (hitting on the winner for just a few bucks can put some nice cash in your pocket). Also, if I’m at a horse track, find me throwing some cash on the ponies. The 2015 Belmont Stakes was my introduction to sports gambling, and I took Frosted instead of American Pharoah. Should have stopped then.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: It’s Super Bowl squares, March Madness brackets and the Masters in that order for me.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: RIP to the Match Play event on the PGA Tour which was always one of my favorite events of the year to bet on. Here’s hoping they find a way to bring it back in some form or fashion. With that aside, nothing beats Week 1 of the NFL season and the Round of 64 of March Madness.
This is the fourth year of LIV Golf and the third Masters since the breakaway league began. Do you still look at LIV players differently when handicapping majors and will any be on your betting slips this week?
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Bryson, Rahm, Brooks, Tyrrell Hatton and Cam Smith are the only LIV players I consider when wagering on majors at this point and I think Bryson has the best shot of the trio this week. Joaquin Niemann is a fade for me despite winning twice on LIV. The pressure are majors is just different and he isn’t there. Sergio is another fade despite his solid play at LIV.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: I look at LIV players similarly to PGA Tour players when coming into major championships. I had Brooks Koepka at the 2023 PGA Championship and Bryson DeChambeau at the U.S. Open last year, proving that crossing LIV players off completely is a fool's errand. Recent form and the way the player fits the course are the two most important factors for me when betting majors, regardless of which Tour (or league) they play on.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: I don’t buy the arguments that LIV’s world-class players have lost mojo since jumping to the rival league. But it’s much harder to judge their form for this week compared to PGA Tour players. I’m sprinkling Jon Rahm in fantasy pools and I wouldn’t be surprised if Brooks or Bryson won, but none will be on my outright tickets.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: It’d be foolish to dismiss the LIV Golf players in the field, in my opinion, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t added challenges to investing in them. I have to take a look at guys like Patrick Reed, Bryson, DJ and perhaps Rahm and Niemann this week as well, but it’s a much different approach given the level of data available in comparison to guys on the PGA Tour, which complicates the matter substantially.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: This brings us back to my explanation about Rahm earlier in this roundtable. I don’t doubt that a LIV player can post a strong finish, as we’ve seen, but I think the PGA Tour players are better prepared for the year’s first major, for various reasons, and the next three majors are the ones more likely to be won by a LIV player, as they get more reps in their season. I wouldn’t bet a LIV player to win this week, but it’s more likely than not that there are multiple who place top 10.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Koepka was great two years ago and Bryson of course was awesome last summer, but you can’t win at Augusta hitting it all over the map. Even with LIV guys flashing and occasionally winning majors I’m still a little skeptical because it just feels tougher to know how in-form they are entering a week. Joaquin Niemann on paper appears to be the top candidate for a Bryson-esque summer. But Niemann has never so much as contended in a major and he’s 25-1 on DraftKings. Is that a deal? I honestly don’t know, but I'm staying away from it.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: I look at LIV players differently because we simply don’t have the same number of metrics and analytics that we get from the PGA Tour or even the DP World Tour. Sure, we can come up with some sort of strokes gained metrics, but the small fields and low number of events make it difficult. With that being said, it’s tough to look past Joaquin Niemann this week. He’s been in fantastic form, and before he went to LIV he was always a guy I looked at who I felt could contend at Augusta.
Golf’s majors offer prop bet opportunities galore. What’s one off-the-radar prop you like this week?
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Usually I say hole-in-one bets here because I’m a sucker for rooting for an ace. This year I’ll be looking at the top player from each region market. For instance, I like Sahne Lowry over Rory McIlroy this week, which should have strong odds.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: “Make the cut” parlays are always fun to do in major championships. Picking 5-7 players who you think should make the weekend a building a juiced up ticket is a great way to sweat the cutline on Friday afternoon.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: The winning score being “over” whatever the books set it. Just think the course could play a bit different with fewer trees post-Helene and possibly new wind patterns.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Oddly enough, this is one of my favorite weeks to target nationality props. With such a limited field, there are often, particularly in markets like top South American, top Scandanavian, etc., some opportunities to find some value without much threat of outliers swooping in and ruining your bet, which happens far too often for my liking in a standard PGA Tour event.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Let’s go yes on a playoff this year (+350). We haven’t seen one since Sergio Garcia defeated Justin Rose in 2017. Don’t overthink it—we’re due.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Anytime ace is always a fun bet. I also have a funny feeling that either Scottie or Rory might miss the cut. Sometimes when it looks so obvious a player is going to contend, an off week pops up.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: The Masters is my favorite time to toss together a big “make the cut” parlay. With it being a limited field and given we can to cross off a chunk of former champions with virtually no shot, you can create some fun parlays with big payouts with a realistic chance of cashing. It gives you something fun to root for on Thursday and Friday.
Give us one long shot, odds 60-1 or greater, who could surprise, and give us one sentence why.
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Getting Jason Day at +8000 (FanDuel) is too good for me to pass up. He has four Top 10s at Augusta. While the last came in 2019, his game is in the right place to contend again. His short game has been outstanding this year and his putter has been red hot, which was the case when he was the No. 1 player in the world. That plays well at Augusta, as does a history of success.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: Sergio Garcia (+8000). There may not be a player on the planet flushing the ball as well as Garcia is right now. He seems to have found his groove on LIV and mentoring young players has brought out the best in the mental side of his game. In his past four starts, the Spaniard has a win, a runner-up and a third-place finish. Last week at Doral, Garcia gained 7.8 strokes on approach in three rounds. Since his win in 2017, the 45-year-old hasn’t been great at Augusta, but we’ve seen multiple Spaniards win the Masters twice. I have a feeling Garcia gets involved this weekend.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: Sepp Straka at 80-1 (DraftKings) is second in FedEx Cup points and has risen to 13th in the world yet if you asked fairly attentive golf fans what his OWGR is I bet they’d put him around 30th—but I’m not underestimating the Austrian Georgia Bulldog here.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: I’m not going to feel good about it, but Patrick Reed at +9000 (FanDuel) is silly. The man is a past winner at the Masters with four finishes of T12 or better in his last five starts at Augusta combined with some real flashes of spectacular play, even if not for full tournaments, on LIV recently.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Maverick McNealy (+14000). He’s playing great this year with four-10s, including a T3 last week in San Antonio, and is now a top 10 player in the world heading into his Masters debut. Plus, he’s above average on Tour in every strokes-gained category except around the green.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: It’s tough to make the Masters your first major title. Even though he’s been erratic this year, Wyndham Clark enters off a T-5 in Houston, and he’s a former U.S. Open winner with all the tools to thrive at Augusta. At 80-1 all you want is a chance, and I think Clark has one.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: A debutant hasn’t won at the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 but if I were to pick a long shot with a chance to snap that streak, how about the man who wears two gloves, Aaron Rai? He’s one of the most accurate golfers on the PGA Tour, ranking sixth in driving accuracy and 27th in greens in regulation, which we know will be huge at Augusta. He’ll have to have a great chipping week to have a shot, but at 120-1 at FanDuel, he’s worth a look.
There can only be one: who slips into a green jacket on Sunday and why?
Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: I’ve been banging the Shane Lowry drum all season in the SI Golf betting panel. While it hasn’t worked out yet, I’m not backing down, especially at +3500 odds at FanDuel. Faders have had a lot of success at Augusta and Lowry has a T3 in 2022 and T16 in 2023 there. Fifth in total shots gained on Tour, he’s been acheingly close to winning this year and now he gets it done.
Matt Vincenzi, SI Golf: Collin Morikawa. Over his past 24 rounds, Collin Morikawa leads the field in strokes-gained approach. Augusta National is a second shot golf course and no one in the field has that part of their game dialed in as well as Morikawa. In five starts this season, the two-time major winner’s worst finish has been T17. He finished runner-up at both the Sentry and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Morikawa gets one step closer to the career grand slam this week.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: Collin Morikawa’s ball striking is completely dialed and his last three Masters have been T3, 10th, fifth. I think he’s going to have to stare down Scheffler to put on the jacket, but Scottie hasn’t been as bulletproof as he was a year ago.
Cody Williams, FanSided/SI Betting: Ask Iain, I am nothing if not a ride-or-die for my guys and a glutton for punishment, which is why I’m taking Rory McIlroy to finally win the Masters. I get every reason not to do it, but there might be more reasons this year based on his play and the complete golf I’ve already spoken on. He checks the boxes for trends, be it his major finishes last year, his strokes gained numbers this season leading to Augusta, and just about everything else. Don’t worry, I already know I’m about to get punched in the gut.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf: McIlroy. I always said I’ll believe it when I see it, but this seems like the year. The last three seasons, the Masters has been won by the game’s hottest player at the time—Scheffler, Rahm and Scheffler (again). Now, it’s Rory McIlroy, winning at Pebble Beach and the Players. It seems he’s playing with a different confidence and the pressure of finally winning at Augusta and completing the career grand slam might not be the monster it once was. Nothing can be worse than the ‘24 U.S. Open.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: This should be McIlroy’s year, but I have a feeling we may get a callback to the 2024 Pinehurst U.S. Open, with McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau batting down the stretch. And once again I think Bryson clips Rory by a shot.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Ten of the last 12 Masters winners gained +1.7 strokes from tee-to-green the year leading up to the event, which narrows our list down quite a bit. There’s one name on that list that sticks out to me: Shane Lowry. He’s quietly been playing some fantastic golf this season, and his style of play fits Augusta to perfection. That’s proven by his T3 finish in 2022 along with three other top 25 finishes. As long as he can hit a few putts, he’ll be in the conversation on the weekend.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 Masters Bettors' Roundtable: Favorites, Sleepers, Props and Best Bets for Augusta National.
