Let’s argue. Welcome to our 2024 NFL quarterback rankings.
Before we get into the 32 signal-callers, a few ground rules to understand.
- This isn’t a power ranking based on the first two weeks. While they’re certainly a factor, we’re not going to put Derek Carr ahead of Patrick Mahomes because he’s off to a hot start. After all, there’s a lot of historical play to consider.
- There’s a mix of standard stats and more advanced analytics to look at. You’re going to see plenty of both in these monthly rankings, and they give a well-rounded view of which quarterbacks are doing what.
- Finally, as the season goes on, what we’ve seen in 2024 will increasingly matter. If Carr continues playing like Dan Marino and looks like the league MVP, he’ll be ranked as such in due time.
- I’ll rank 32 quarterbacks each month, sticking to the ones who started in the most recent week (i.e., Malik Willis but not Jordan Love).
- Every month, I’ll write about all 32 quarterbacks, but do a deeper dive on eight I feel are worth a little extra attention. Those players are in bold.
All right, with those thoughts established, let’s get to the good stuff.
32. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Young is being benched, and rightfully so. He’s at or near the bottom in every significant passing metric, and the Panthers look like they should be underdogs against Vanderbilt. It’s time to see what Andy Dalton can do.
31. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Nix won the three-headed camp battle this summer over veterans Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson and then looked terrific against backups in the preseason.
The problem? The preseason is over, and so is the honeymoon. Against the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers, Nix threw for 384 yards on 5.0 yards per attempt with zero touchdowns and four interceptions. If you take away garbage time in last Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh, his EPA per play in Week 2 ranked 30th at -0.429, ahead only of Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young.
For the year, Nix is only ahead of Young and Deshaun Watson in success rate (33.7%) while struggling to generate any offense. Denver scored 20 points in Seattle but was aided by two red zone turnovers from the Seahawks, along with two safeties. Last weekend, the total output was two meaningless field goals.
At 24 years old, Nix needs to be good now to justify his first-round status. So far, that’s not happening.
30. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jones is holding onto his job, but just barely. If the Giants get blown out by the Browns in Week 3, the calls to start Drew Lock are only going to get louder. After this season, New York can release Jones and save $19.3 million against the cap.
29. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
How are things going for Levis? These tweets should suffice.
Will Levis is on a generational run right now
— Big Game Bengal (@BengalYouTube) September 15, 2024
I can’t wait for week 3 pic.twitter.com/CdAq4Qfzyt
Brian Callahan after the latest Will Levis maniac play:
— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) September 15, 2024
"Hey, what the fuck are you doing??" pic.twitter.com/vVKuS3aLVG
It’s tough to make an argument for Levis as a long-term starter after his first 11 NFL starts. He makes too many mistakes and not enough smart, consistent throws.
28. Malik Willis, Green Bay Packers
Willis is filling in for the injured Jordan Love, and last Sunday against the Colts he did a fine job. He threw for 122 yards on 12-of-14 passing while rushing for 41 yards, helping Green Bay even its record. While Love is back at practice, Willis remains in line to start against the Titans this weekend, getting a chance at revenge against his former team.
27. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Nix isn’t the only rookie who’s struggling. Playing behind an offensive line that has allowed a league-high nine sacks, Williams has looked scattershot in the pocket, at times almost unaware of pressure converging on him.
In the season opener, Williams failed to throw for 100 yards against the Tennessee Titans and then continued to struggle in Week 2 against the Houston Texans. Through two games, his EPA/CPOE composite ranks dead last in the NFL at -0.024, just below Young, who’s been benched in Carolina.
Williams appeared to be in a favorable situation with the Bears, who added rookie receiver Rome Odunze and veteran Keenan Allen to an offense already featuring wideout DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet. Little has gone right to this point for Chicago, which sits 30th in EPA (-0.234) and drop-back EPA (-0.261).
Chicago needs Williams to improve rapidly if the Bears have any postseason hopes.
26. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots
Give it up for Brissett. No, he’s not lighting it up, ranking 29th with 270 passing yards across two games. However, the underlying analytics are good, with the veteran journeyman sitting 10th in success rate (50.0%) and 15th in EPA per play (0.052).
25. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
After being seen as a backup throughout the summer, Fields has taken the starting job from an injured Russell Wilson and now has the Steelers staked to a 2–0 record. Fields has been asked to do very little, throwing 43 times across two games. However, he’s not making mistakes, as he’s yet to throw an interception.
24. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Watson has struggled through the young season, leaving it an open question whether we’ll see Jameis Winston win the starting job at some point. Through two weeks, Watson ranks 28th in EPA per play (-0.204) and 23rd in CPOE (-4.0). Considering his contract, the Browns have to be troubled once again.
23. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Considering the coach and his supporting cast, Richardson has been a disappointment in his second season coming off injuries as a rookie. But he did produce one of the best throws you’ll ever see.
The Colts are 0–2 and Richardson has completed a ghastly 49.1% of his attempts with three touchdowns and four interceptions. This despite being pressured only 18.0% of the time, tied for ninth-best in the league. That’s all the more impressive when you consider Richardson holds the ball, averaging an NFL-high 2.6 seconds per drop-back.
For now, though, the biggest concerns are his accuracy and inexperience. Richardson only threw an even 1,000 passes between high school, college and his rookie year. With a lack of reps comes indecision, and it’s showing in Richardson’s bad-throw percentage of 25.5%, fourth-worst in football.
22. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders
Minshew was given a two-year, $25 million deal this offseason, and he’s doing a nice job managing the offense. The 28-year-old ranks tied for second in passing yards with 533, while completing 77.5% of his attempts. The Raiders are essentially asking Minshew to protect the ball, find Davante Adams and target rookie tight end Brock Bowers. So far, so good, outside of two interceptions.
21. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Cousins was faced a crucible Monday night. Trailing by six points in Philadelphia with less than two minutes remaining and no timeouts, Cousins stared down an 0–2 start and drove the Falcons 70 yards in 65 seconds for the win. After looking like a statue in a season-opening loss to the Steelers, Cousins was moving a bit better in the victory. As he gets further from his Achilles repair, Cousins should only improve.
20. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Of all the rookie quarterbacks playing, Daniels has, by far, been the best. The No. 2 pick is sixth in adjusted EPA per play (0.221) and first in expected completion rate (73.4%). Washington has a long way to go to contention, but Daniels looks like an answer in the early going.
19. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Darnold is on his fourth team in five years, and perhaps he’s finally found a home. Or, maybe this is a repeat of 2021.
That season, Darnold and his Carolina Panthers started 3–0 with the quarterback earning early MVP buzz after a pair of 300-yard efforts. Then the bottom fell out, and he was benched by Week 10.
Fast forward, and the Vikings are a surprising 2–0 with Darnold throwing for 476 yards and four touchdowns while completing 72% of his passes. He’s also sixth in EPA per play at 0.209 while sitting 12th in success rate (48.3%).
If Darnold continues to play anywhere close to this level, the Vikings will be a surprise team.
18. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
At this point, the only concern surrounding Tagovailoa is his long-term health. After sustaining another concussion, Tagovailoa has been placed on injured reserve with no timetable for his return. In the interim, it’ll be either Skylar Thompson or Tyler Huntley getting the action.
17. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts is tough to grade. Thus far, he ranks eighth in EPA per play (0.138) and tied for 10th in success rate (50.0%). However, much of the value he’s provided has been through scrambling, as Hurts has 116 rushing yards. That’s more than Travis Etienne Jr. With A.J. Brown dealing with a hamstring injury, the Eagles need Hurts to provide more than ever.
16. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence isn’t getting much protection from his offensive line, but he’s off to a brutal start. After signing a $275 million deal this offseason, Lawrence checks in third-worst in bad throw percentage (27.1%) and 26th in CPOE (-5.5). It’s nowhere near good enough, and if the Jaguars lose on Monday night in Buffalo, the groans out of Jacksonville will intensify.
15. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
After dropping off last year—after his breakout, Pro Bowl campaign of 2022—Smith appears to be back on the upswing. Seattle is 2–0, and Smith has done his part, ranking seventh in EPA per play (0.141) while throwing for 498 yards, sixth-best in the league. With DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the outside, the Seahawks have a legit passing attack.
14. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Coming off a torn Achilles, and at 40 years old, there was plenty of curiosity about how Rodgers would rebound for the Jets.
The early evidence suggests he’s inconsistent, but there’s reason to believe he’s improving. Rodgers ranks 27th in CPOE (-7.5) but is a solid 10th in EPA per play (0.131), one spot ahead of Patrick Mahomes.
After beating the Titans in Week 2, New York has an easy few weeks ahead with the Patriots and Broncos before taking on the resurgent Vikings in London.
Perhaps the seminal question is whether Rodgers can find more easy targets beyond star receiver Garrett Wilson. So far, Wilson has been targeted 17 times, while Allen Lazard has 13. After that, the next wideout on the list is Mike Williams … with one.
Rodgers still has the right arm and more experience than any other active player, but there’s uncertainty ahead.
13. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are off to an uneven start, and so is Prescott. The MVP runner-up a season ago ranks second in intended air yards (619) but just 15th in completed air yards (218). In short, he’s airing it out with moderate results. Dallas needs Prescott to be a bit better down-to-down, as he sits 23rd in success rate (41.7%). Next up, the Baltimore Ravens.
12. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Goff is quietly having a pretty tough start to the season, despite seeing the maturation of receiver Jameson Williams as a difference maker. He sits 24th in success rate (40.9%) and 28th in adjusted EPA per play (-0.178). It’s not alarming, and mostly from a small sample size, but the Lions need Goff to step up a bit.
11. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield is showing the Buccaneers might have been very wise to invest a $100 million deal into him this offseason. Through two games, Tampa Bay is 2–0 and Mayfield has thrown for a league-best five touchdowns, while ranking fifth in on-target passing (83.7%). He’s also fourth in EPA per play (0.440), making the Buccaneers look like a contender.
10. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Carr has apparently transformed into a cross between Dan Fouts and Joe Montana in his 11th season.
The Saints are 2–0 while averaging 45.5 points per game after rolling the Panthers and Cowboys. Carr has yet to lead a drive that doesn’t result in points, with the unit being driven by the play-action heavy, motion-oriented offense of new coordinator Klint Kubiak.
His stats are staggering. Carr ranks first among starting quarterbacks in EPA, Adjusted EPA per play (0.556) and CPOE (9.5). He’s also fifth in success rate (52.1%), helping the Saints become the league’s most dangerous through the season’s first two weeks.
Obviously, New Orleans and Carr aren’t going to keep up this break-neck pace. Teams will adjust to what Kubiak is doing. However, if Kubiak and Carr can adjust to the adjustments, the Saints have to be seen as a contender.
9. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Purdy hasn’t had an easy go of it so far. The Niners are without wideout Deebo Samuel and running Christian McCaffrey for awhile, and although future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams didn’t end up holding out into the season, the line has been a mess. Purdy has been pressured on 28.9% of drop-backs, fifth-worst in football. With fewer weapons and a leaky line, Purdy will have a thinner margin for error.
8. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert has never been asked to do less, and he’s likely thrilled about it. The Chargers are 2–0 with wins over the Raiders and Panthers, and Herbert has thrown for just 274 yards on 6.0 yards per attempt. Those figures rank 27th and 25th across the league, respectively. With a limited receiving corps, Los Angeles’s plan of pounding the ball is the best way to win, even if it means limiting Herbert’s impact.
7. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals may not play much defense, but they sure can score points. To that end, Murray is playing like a star quarterback.
Through two weeks, he has 428 passing yards with four touchdowns and zero turnovers, earning a 91.3 QBR, second only to Carr. Murray is also third in EPA per play, again behind only Carr and Josh Allen. He’s also connecting with his receivers with an on-target percentage of 84.6%.
For the Cardinals to compete, they need Murray to be the best version of himself. To this point, his top campaign came in 2020 when he made his first Pro Bowl, throwing for 26 touchdowns and 3,971 yards.
With a group of weapons including wideouts Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, and tight end Trey McBride, a career year could be on deck.
6. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Stafford is on a sinking ship with the Rams, who are dealing with an ungodly amount of injuries. Still, he’s putting up great numbers in the face of dwindling weapons and a crumbling line. Stafford is tied with Minshew for second with 533 passing yards. His performance in Week 1 against the Lions was absurd, making one tough throw after the next in a losing effort. However, the analytics see issues, with Stafford being 22nd in adjusted EPA per play (-0.024) and 20th in EPA+CPOE composite (0.042).
5. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is on the brink at 0–2, with games coming up against the Cowboys, Bills and Bengals. To that point, Jackson needs to make magic happen as the reigning MVP while playing behind a sieve of an offensive line. Jackson is fifth with 520 passing yards but has just two touchdown passes, and is a middling 19th in EPA per play (0.003).
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow and the Bengals are 0–2 as well, but in a far different situation than Baltimore. Cincinnati has Washington and Carolina the next two weeks, giving it a chance to get fat before the second quarter of the season kicks in. As for Burrow, the wrist recovery seems to be going well. He’s tied for 12th in success rate (48.3%), directly ahead of Mahomes. He’s also facing minimal pressure at a second-best clip of 11.8%.
3. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud might barely be into his second season, but the Texans have a superstar on their hands. The Ohio State product can make all the throws and has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, including the league’s leading receiver in Nico Collins. Stroud checks in ninth in EPA per play (0.135), while Houston sits eighth in drop-back EPA (0.135). As the year goes on and chemistry builds with Stefon Diggs, expect those numbers to rise.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
This is a new world for Allen. No more Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. No more airing the ball out at will.
Buffalo has a new style of attack under coordinator Joe Brady, one asking Allen to take care of the ball, run when he needs to, but otherwise spread around his targets and move at a more regulated pace.
So far, so good. Allen has thrown for just 371 yards (seven more than Daniel Jones) and rushed for 41 yards, but he’s completing 73.8% of his attempts and has a QBR of 84.2 while helping the revamped Bills to a 2–0 start entering their Monday night showdown with Jacksonville.
Diving deeper, Allen also checks in first in success rate (60.7%) and seventh in CPOE (7.4). It’s clear the adjustment to a new reality works for both Allen and the Bills, and earlier than anybody could have expected.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes had a solid game against the Ravens in the season opener before suffering through a hideous, two-interception performance in a win over Cincinnati. Still, Mahomes would be everyone’s No. 1 pick in football if given the chance. That said, the numbers are middling, as he ranks 11th in adjusted EPA per play (0.125) and14th in success rate (47.8%). As the schedule eases up and Mahomes gets going, those figures should climb considerably.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings: Rookies Struggle in the Early Going.
