The NFL playoff races are heating up.
While the divisional races aren’t too exciting in the AFC, we’re seeing a few great ones in the NFC. The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles are separated by a half-game in the NFC East, while the entire NFC West is separated only by a game.
Meanwhile, the wild-card races on both sides are intriguing. If the season ended today, the AFC West and NFC North would both get three teams into the postseason.
But how does it all look as Week 9 comes to a close? We break everything down below including percentages, strength of schedule and more.
Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.
AFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 7–0, first place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 6
Playoff probability: 99%
Kansas City plays on Monday night at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before hosting the Denver Broncos six days later at Arrowhead Stadium.
No. 2: Buffalo Bills
Record: 7–2, first place, AFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 99%
It wasn’t pretty, but the Bills beat the Miami Dolphins to earn their third divisional win and a season sweep of Miami. Next up, the Colts in Indianapolis before hosting the Chiefs.
No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 6–2, first place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 5
Playoff probability: 77%
Pittsburgh has to be thrilled about its position atop the AFC North during its bye week. However, their final nine games include all six divisional matchups, along with games against the Commanders, Eagles and Chiefs.
No. 4: Houston Texans
Record: 6–3, first place, AFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 96%
While the Texans control their destiny in the AFC South, they have issues. Nico Collins is still out with a hamstring injury while Stefon Diggs is gone for the year due to a torn ACL. Factor in an atrocious offensive line, and Houston might have shopping to do before Tuesday’s trade deadline.
No. 5: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 6–3, second place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 94%
Baltimore hammered the Broncos to leapfrog them in the playoff picture. The Ravens only have a moment to enjoy the win, though, with the Cincinnati Bengals coming to town Thursday night.
No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 5–3, second place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 84%
The Chargers destroyed the Cleveland Browns, sacking Jameis Winston six times while nabbing three interceptions. Los Angeles’s only quality win is over the Broncos, but it’s enough for a playoff spot at the moment.
No. 7: Denver Broncos
Record: 5–4, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 35%
Denver looked out of place against Baltimore on Sunday. Now, the Broncos must rebound before going to Kansas City for the first of two meetings against the Chiefs.
In the Hunt
Indianapolis Colts (4–5): The Colts played Sunday night in Minnesota and fell short. Next week, it’s back at Lucas Oil Stadium against the surging Bills.
Cincinnati Bengals (4–5): Cincinnati easily handled the Las Vegas Raiders behind five touchdown passes from Joe Burrow. However, a short-week trip to Baltimore looms.
New York Jets (3–6): The Jets beat the Texans to keep their faint playoff hopes alive, but their schedule isn’t easy. New York has a long climb ahead.
NFC: Who’s In
No. 1: Detroit Lions
Record: 7–1, first place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 99%
Detroit easily handled the Packers and looked like the NFC’s team to beat. The Lions travel to play the Texans next weekend on Sunday Night Football.
No. 2: Washington Commanders
Record: 7–2, first place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 92%
Washington didn’t need a Hail Mary at MetLife Stadium (who does?) to beat the New York Giants. With Philadelphia’s win, the Commanders stayed a half-game ahead in the NFC East.
No. 3: Atlanta Falcons
Record: 6–3, first place, NFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 93%
Atlanta is starting to put distance between itself and the Buccaneers in the NFC South. If Tampa Bay loses on Monday night, the Falcons will have a two-game lead with a victory over the Buccaneers in Tampa already secured.
No. 4: Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5–4, first place, NFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 43%
Who could have seen this coming? Arizona is leading the NFC West outright after rattling off three consecutive wins over the Chargers, Dolphins and Bears.
No. 5: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 6–2, second place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 84%
Minnesota handled the Colts on Sunday night in an uneven affair, breaking its two-game losing streak. The Vikings remain only one game back of the Lions in the NFC North.
No. 6: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 6–2, second place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 95%
Philadelphia hasn’t been overly convincing, but it continues to win. The Eagles now travel to Dallas for a marquee matchup with the Cowboys, who are desperate at 3–5.
No. 7: Green Bay Packers
Record: 6–3, third place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 52%
The Packers had a chance to beat the Lions and move up in the playoff picture. Instead, they were humbled at home and are now on the bottom rung, looking at a long road back to a shot at the NFC North.
In the hunt
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–4): Tampa Bay plays the Chiefs on Monday night before returning home to square off with the 49ers.
Chicago Bears (4–4): It might be time to temper expectations for this Bears team. Chicago was blown out by the Cardinals while allowing seven sacks to a middling defensive line.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 9: Surprising Cardinals Lead the NFC West.
