With only four weeks remaining, the NFL playoff picture is only getting wilder.
In the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers strengthened their grasp on the AFC North with a win over the Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills lost for the first time in two months, but remained the No. 2 seed despite being tied with Pittsburgh.
Over in the NFC, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took control of the NFC South with its third consecutive win, while the Atlanta Falcons dropped their fourth straight to the Minnesota Vikings, who are presently the fifth seed. Additionally, the Seattle Seahawks took care of the Arizona Cardinals, likely finishing off the latter’s playoff hopes.
But how does it all look as we head for Week 15? Here’s a complete picture:
Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.
AFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 11–1, first place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 100%
The Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night. We will update after the game’s completion.
No. 2: Buffalo Bills
Record: 10–3, first place, AFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 100%
Josh Allen did all he could with six total touchdowns, but the Bills fell to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Buffalo won’t get much respite, with a trip to Detroit up next.
No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 10–3, first place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 99%
The Steelers earned a season split against the Cleveland Browns while growing their AFC North lead to two games. Up next are road trips to take on the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens.
No. 4: Houston Texans
Record: 8–5, first place, AFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 97%
Houston was idle in Week 14 and will now enter the stretch drive with a two-game lead (along with a tiebreaker) on the Indianapolis Colts for AFC South supremacy. The Miami Dolphins at NRG Stadium are up next.
No. 5: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 8–5, second place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 95%
Baltimore has a climb ahead of it to defend its AFC North crown. After having the bye week, the Ravens visit the New York Giants before hosting the Steelers.
No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 8–4, second place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 89%
The Chargers lost in painful fashion to the Chiefs on Sunday night. Now, the road to the playoffs is exclusively a wild-card proposition. Next up, the Buccaneers at SoFi Stadium.
No. 7: Denver Broncos
Record: 7–5, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 77%
The Broncos got to relax this week with a bye. However, Denver has an enormous game next Sunday with the Colts coming to town. With a victory, the Broncos would almost be assured of a playoff berth.
IN THE HUNT
Indianapolis Colts (6–7): After being idle this weekend, the Colts travel to Denver for a massive tilt with the Broncos. If Indianapolis wins, it has a chance to run the table with games against the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars to close its schedule.
Miami Dolphins (6–7): It wasn’t easy, but the Dolphins kept hope alive by beating the New York Jets in overtime. Now, a date with the rested Texans looms.
Cincinnati Bengals (4–8): The Bengals are barely alive, but technically remain in the hunt. They’ll play Monday night against the injury-riddled Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
NFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Detroit Lions
Record: 12–1, first place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 100%
The Lions became the first NFC team to clinch a playoff berth Thursday, beating the Green Bay Packers on a last-second Jake Bates field goal. Detroit remains a game ahead in both the NFC North and conference race for home-field advantage, with the Bills coming to Ford Field next Sunday.
No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 11–2, first place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 100%
It was much tougher than expected, but the Eagles took down the Carolina Panthers and expanded their lead to three games in the NFC East. For Philadelphia, the rest of the season is about staying close to Detroit and hoping for some help.
No. 3: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 8–5, first place, NFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 60%
By beating the Arizona Cardinals to complete the season sweep, the Seahawks all but finished off their rivals from the desert while staying a game ahead of the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West.
No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 7–6, first place, NFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 67%
Tampa Bay has overcome injuries and a four-game losing streak in the middle portion of the season to take first place in the NFC South. Next week brings the Chargers, the last team on the Buccaneers’ docket with a winning record.
No. 5: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 11–2, second place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 99%
Sam Darnold has now thrown for 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, keeping the Vikings within a game of the NFC North lead. Even if Minnesota falls short in that endeavor, it has a great chance to be the top NFC wild-card team.
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 9–4, third place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 95%
Green Bay played the Lions to the bitter end Thursday night, but with the loss, it’s tough to see any realistic path to the NFC North title. At this juncture, the Packers’ best hope is earning the fifth seed.
No. 7: Washington Commanders
Record: 8–5, second place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 77%
After having a week off, Washington will look to get a winning streak started when it visits the New Orleans Saints next Sunday.
IN THE HUNT
Los Angeles Rams (7–6): The Rams outlasted the Bills in a shootout for the ages, winning 44–42. Now, Los Angeles has to regroup and prepare for the San Francisco 49ers on a short week.
Arizona Cardinals (6–7): The Cardinals dropped their second game in three weeks to the Seahawks, and now likely need to win out and get some help for a playoff push.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Playoff Picture, Week 14: Buccaneers, Seahawks Take Control of Divisions.
