Next up in the summer scouting series is a player with significant potential to rise well above most current projections: Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.
A dual-threat quarterback who posted impressive numbers (22 TDs/5 INTs, 64.6% completions, 306 rushing yards) in his first season as Michigan’s starter, McCarthy offers quite a bit of talent and upside. With another season for the Wolverines like he had in 2022, McCarthy could very well play his way into the top-10 of the 2024 NFL draft (if he declares). But there are a few areas he needs to get better at to make that happen.
To help evaluate McCarthy and where his game can improve, I went back and watched six Michigan games from 2022: Maryland, Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State, Purdue (Big 10 Championship) and TCU (CFP semifinal). Here’s what I saw from McCarthy that can get better.
Throws to the right flat
Many quarterbacks have one specific throw where they might inordinately struggle relative to their full body of work. For McCarthy, it’s throwing short and intermediate passes to the right side of the field.
It’s throws like this one in the loss to TCU where McCarthy’s lack of an elite arm and light openness to his throwing stance gets him into trouble when throwing to the right side. Aside from underestimating the speed of the defender, McCarthy lets go of this throw a half-count too late. That’s not uncommon for him, especially working to the right side of the field.
He also threw a pick-six against Penn State on a designed rollout to the right, another play where McCarthy basically ignored the defense that he was looking at the whole time. In the games I watched, I didn’t see this issue working to the left side or over the middle. His hip rotation and shoulder release are cleaner in those directions.
Even when he avoids danger, the accuracy just isn’t as sharp making these outside throws to the right. Take this one versus Ohio State:
The hip rotation and right foot aren’t helping him get an accurate throwing line here. That’s something that shows up a lot on these specific types of throws for McCarthy.
The weight room
McCarthy is listed by Michigan as 6-foot-3 and 196. Those measurements pass the eye test; McCarthy stands fairly tall. It’s the weight where McCarthy can help himself.
There’s just not much mass to McCarthy. Very little muscle tone. While he’s got a naturally peppy arm, McCarthy does need to put some full-body oomph to really rifle the ball into tight windows or deep down the field. It’s similar to Byrce Young at Alabama.
The weight training can only help his arm strength, but the real concern with McCarthy is durability. He’s not someone who avoids hits as a runner. Adding even five extra pounds of bulk should help McCarthy handle the rigors and increased strength of the NFL game.
The interesting part here is that McCarthy is still listed at almost the exact same size as he was when he entered Michigan out of IMG Academy back in 2021. He’s actually dropped a pound from 197. McCarthy is 20 (January birthday), so he might not be done naturally growing, but the stability in his measurements indicates he probably is. That means more time in the weight room and with the training and nutrition staff to try and maximize his strength.
McCarthy will never look like a fitness model, but improving his core strength and bulk can help him nonetheless. I’d like him more as a prospect if he cleared 200 pounds as a playing weight, and I suspect NFL training staffs would feel the same.
Pre-snap pass rush recognition
Michigan had a pretty solid offensive line in 2022, with both the center (Ola Oluwatimi) and right tackle (Ryan Hayes) now in the NFL. Despite the generally strong protection, McCarthy still had some issues in recognizing blitzes, or rather reacting to those blitzes.
It often seemed as though McCarthy was taken by surprise when the defense brought an extra rusher, as if he wasn’t anticipating the pressure coming from there. This really showed against TCU but also in the Iowa and Penn State games. McCarthy also needs to mix up his escape plans. Right now he predictably circles back to his left way too frequently. Defenses will pick up on that and start bringing rush packages that take advantage if McCarthy doesn’t consistently demonstrate other methods of avoiding pressure.
The frustration is that McCarthy does indeed show he can make plays against the blitz. His TD strike to TE Luke Schoonmaker in the win over Purdue came on a play where it almost felt like McCarthy baited the Boilermakers’ LB into rushing. More of that, please.
