When it comes to the AFC, everything runs through Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes isn’t even 30 yet, but he has more Lombardi’s than most old heads still looking to stay in the game.
Matthew Stafford was drafted in 2009. He’s won one Super Bowl. When Aaron Rodgers was selected by the Packers in 2005, Mahomes hadn’t even turned 10 and still was known for his pitching prowess over ziplining passes to Travis Kelce.
In the AFC South, no one truly “runs” anything. Since 2010, all four teams have won multiple division titles and escaped past the wild-card round. Indianapolis hasn’t clinched the title in nearly a decade, but it still has been to the postseason twice as a wild-card roster.
The same goes for Houston, which recently retook the lead behind a stellar rookie season from C.J. Stroud. Tennessee dominated for three seasons under Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and defensive guru Mike Vrabel. Mixed in between is Jacksonville, which consistently teeters between laughing stock to Super Bowl contender every 12 months.
Teams win in free agency. They build in the draft. The Texans, Jaguars, and Titans aggressively secured Pro Bowl-caliber talents on the open market back in March. Meanwhile, the Colts turned to the draft to lay a foundation surrounding Anthony Richardson and a revamped defense.
All four teams stand a chance to secure the AFC South crown in 2024. Last season, it came down to three plays and a fourth-down stop to punch Houston’s ticket to the postseason and send Jacksonville packing out of the wild-card phase.
But which AFC South team won the draft? Our NFL Wire editors shared their initial grades for their respective draft classes. Let’s review, shall we?
Houston Texans: B+
There’s nothing to love about the Texans’ draft, but there’s also nothing to hate. There is, however, a lot to like and be excited about when looking at the big picture past the nine new prospects added over the past two days. Kamari Lassiter ran a 4.6 40-time, but his play was worthy of first-round buzz. This is a pure DeMeco Ryans’ cornerback who should start immediately in the nickel. Calen Bullock has that center-field-type mentality that can stay back in coverage to force incompletions and create turnovers. Cade Stover should be a reliable No. 2 tight end for a decade, and already has a budding relationship with his new [and old QB]. Even the Fisher selection makes sense given Houston’s offensive line woes from a season ago. For not having a first-round pick, Nick Caserio landed quality players and improved the organization. That’s all that matters in the end, folks. – Cole Thompson, Texans Wire
Indianapolis Colts: A-
Overall, I thought the draft played out quite well for the Colts. They were able to address two of their biggest needs at edge rusher and receiver right away and did so by selecting Laiatu Latu, who many considered the top defender in the class, and Adonai Mitchell, who has true No. 1 receiver potential. I also really liked the emphasis on building around Anthony Richardson by adding a second wide receiver and investing two fairly early picks into the offensive line. Given the need at cornerback entering the draft, you can point to not addressing that need until the fifth round as a missed opportunity, but there are also only so many needs that can be tackled with premium picks. On top of all that, a few trade backs netted the Colts nine picks after entering the draft with just seven – Paul Bretl, Colts Wire
Texans Wire’s Thoughts: You literally would have to nit-pick each selection to come away underwhelmed by the work Chris Ballard did on draft weekend. Latu was for my money the top defensive player in the class. So long as the neck injury doesn’t derail his career, the two-time -All-Pac-12 recipient should compete for 10-plus sacks and 15 tackles per loss a year.
Mitchell was the steal of the draft. Few receivers at 6-foot-3 run 4.39 40-times and serve as red zone targets because of their physical demeanor. He should come in right away and compete for the starting “X” role against Alec Pierce. Those two picks alone were enough to give this an A, but adding Simpson and Carlise on Day 3 were quality finds. Everything moving forward relies on Richardson and his progression.
Texans Wire’s Grade: A
Jacksonville Jaguars: B-
Jacksonville’s first-round trade-back with Minnesota was genius. The Jaguars dropped six spots, picked up three picks — including third and fourth-rounders in 2025, making for valuable potential trade chips until then — and addressed one of their biggest needs by taking wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. He was the top-rated receiver available when Jacksonville was first on the clock, making the trade even sweeter.
The consensus board says Jacksonville reached on all but one of its next eight selections. However, one could argue their approach of attacking needs with high-upside prospects like Maason Smith (second round) at defensive tackle, Jarrian Jones (third round) in the nickel, and even Myles Cole (seventh round) on the edge made for a sound risk/reward ratio. Drafting special teamers is unpopular, but the Jaguars applied the same logic to their choices of cornerback/gunner Deantre Prince (fifth round), return specialist Keilan Robinson (fifth round) and kicker Cam Little (sixth round), in the wake of the NFL’s installment of new kickoff rules
Texans Wire’s Thoughts: To move down six spots and still land a player who likely was in play at No. 17 should be illegal. Thomas might not be an elite route-runner, but he has impeccable speed and should be a home run threat for Trevor Lawrence opposite Christian Kirk. The Texans will once again have their hands full in coverage with that much speed.
Much like Houston, Jacksonville was looking to build past 2024. Little should start as the new placekicker if he makes the 53-man squad, but everyone else will be a role player. Robinson, Prince and Cole likely carve out special teams roles. Smith and Jones rotate in with Arik Armstead, Roy Robertson-Harris and DaVon Hamilton.
Is that enough for Jacksonville to feel like a contender? For the division title? Possibly. For the AFC South crown? Hard pass.
Texans Wire’s Grade: B-
Tennessee Titans: B
The Titans addressed three major needs with their first three picks in offensive tackle JC Latham, defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat and linebacker Cedric Gray, all of whom should be able to start in Year 1. Tennessee also added some much-needed depth at cornerback with Jarvis Brownlee Jr., and edge rusher Jaylen Harrell and safety-turned-linebacker James Williams will have a shot at depth and special teams roles. The most questionable decision was drafting undersized slot receiver and return man Jha’Quan Jackson over Malik Washington.It was also disappointing that Tennessee didn’t address the need sooner. – Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire
Texans Wire’s Thoughts: Although the Latham selection seemed a little rich, you can understand the thought process. Tennessee’s offensive line was putrid at best last season, especially at both tackle positions. Adding Latham doesn’t guarantee Tennessee has found its left tackle of the future, but if Latham struggles on the blindside, his experience at right tackle fills a void for at least four years.
The Sweat pick was a reach. Even in a base 3-4 defense, the 361-pound Texas nose tackle isn’t a three-down player. He might be a rotational option at best as he looks to shed some weight before the start of the season. And Sweat likely would have been available in the mid-40s. Why not trade down and pick up a bit more draft capital?
The Gray pick is going to be a blessing two years from now when he finishes top-five in tackles. That’s all the Tar Heels star did during his time in Chapel Hill. I agree with Mike on the Washington take. That’s a security blanket in the slot who proved to be a multi-threat weapon.
It’s an average draft class overall. Nothing to love and a ton to nit-pick.
Texans Wire Grade: C
AFC South standings post-draft
- Houston Texans: The Texans didn’t spend over $151 million in guarantees to play second fiddle in the division. C.J. Stroud is only going to improve with the additions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. The defense should remain a top-10 unit with Azeez Al-Shaair and Danielle Hunter as immediate replacements for Blake Cashman and Jonathan Greenard, respectively.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence didn’t exactly shine in 2023, but the offensive line didn’t give him any favors. An improved defense should keep the Jags near the top of every metric as Lawrence looks to build a relationship with Thomas and Gabe Davis.
- Indianapolis Colts: Everything hinges on Anthony Richardson’s progression. If he played all 17 games last season, perhaps the Colts enter the season as division champs. Defensively, it’s basically the same unit with a new sub-package linebacker Jaylon Carlies taking over on the edge. If Richardson can remain on the field, Indy can remain in the division race for first place.
- Tennessee Titans: Will Levis can take a step forward and prove he’s the right option at quarterback. It’d be asinine to not think with Brian Callahan as head coach this offense won’t improve. The concern comes on the secondary and offensive line. Can Latham and whoever lines up at tackle keep Levis upright? This feels like a seven-win team with potential, but still a year away from contention.
