The NBA’s play-in tournament began in 2021 and it has added a layer of excitement to the postseason.
Teams that otherwise would have potentially considered tanking for better draft lottery odds have instead shown a sense of competitiveness for a chance to sneak into the playoffs. The momentum that is carried by these teams matters, too. Just last season, the Miami Heat managed to go all the way from from the play-in tournament to the NBA Finals.
There are some fascinating teams and superstars (e.g. LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Joel Embiid, Zion Williamson, and several others) competing and our staff has predictions for each game before the play-in tournament begins.
Here is how we predict it will all shake out once the games tip-off:
WEST (7 SEED): No. 7 New Orleans Pelicans vs. No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers
April 16 (7:30 PM ET) on TNT. Winner plays No. 2 Nuggets.
Prince Grimes, Lakers: The Lakers aren’t going to test the basketball gods here. They’ll show up to win, and they’ve demonstrated themselves to be a tough matchup for the Pels all season.
Cole Huff, Lakers: The Pels are going to put out a much more spirited effort against the Lakers after being embarrassed by them on more than one occasion this year (I can imagine the motivational speech Willie Green is going to give his team if he hasn’t already). But it won’t matter. This is a terrible matchup for the Pels, and I don’t think in a “win and in” scenario, I’d pick such an unproven team to take down LeBron James.
Bryan Kalbrosky, Lakers: Los Angeles has played well against New Orleans this season and although Anthony Davis may have left the final game of the regular season with an injury, I’m still betting on LeBron James in a must-win game. The school of thought that the Lakers should tank this game is patently absurd.
Mike Sykes, Lakers: I’ll take the Lakers over the Pelicans for the 7 seed. Sometimes, a team just has your number. The Lakers have dominated the Pelicans when the stakes are high this season. I expect that to happen here again.
Robert Zeglinski, Pelicans: The Lakers have had the Pelicans’ number all year. Aside from a one-off on New Year’s Eve, L.A. absolutely smacked New Orleans by double digits in three of four regular-season matchups. With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lakers rested Anthony Davis — whether that’s trying to avoid the Nuggets is up to your interpretation — opening the door to a New Orleans upset built around fluky 3-point shooting.
WEST (ELIMINATION GAME): No. 9 Sacramento Kings vs. No. 10 Golden State Warriors
April 16 (10:00 PM ET) on TNT. Winner plays loser of No. 7 vs. No. 8.
Prince Grimes, Warriors: The Kings are limping to the finish line and they aren’t going to make it across. Golden State couldn’t have asked for a better matchup to advance through the play-in tournament.
Cole Huff, Kings: Even with the late-season injuries, something is telling me the Kings are going to figure out how to hold onto hope for a bit longer. De’Aaron Fox has had some of his best moments against the Warriors this season and I don’t expect any of the Warrior’s older players to keep up.
Bryan Kalbrosky, Warriors: For as much of a roller-coaster ride as it has been for Golden State this season, it is still hard to play against Stephen Curry — especially in a playoff environment. The team will have some tough decisions to make this offseason, but the road isn’t ending quite yet.
Mike Sykes, Warriors: Give me the Warriors over the Kings in a closely drawn match. This one could go either way, but I think we’re in for a monster Steph Curry game to keep the Warriors playoff lives going.
Robert Zeglinski, Warriors: Two key Kings injuries take the wind out of the sails for this one for me. With Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, I would’ve characterized Sacramento as a solid and firm West dark horse. Without them, I look forward to watching Steph Curry and friends do whatever they want to the Kings.
EAST (7 SEED): No. 7 Miami Heat vs. No. 8 Philadelphia 76ers
April 17 (7:00 PM ET) on ESPN. Winner plays No. 2 Knicks.
Prince Grimes, 76ers: If there’s one team I’m not counting out regardless of how average they appeared during the regular season, it’s the Heat. But the Sixers are simply playing too well right now for me to pick against them.
Cole Huff, Heat: Miami’s offense has been truly excruciating to watch all year long, yet my gut is telling me that Erik Spoelstra is going to hop in his bag and really remind everyone why he’s the best coach in the league. Perhaps Jimmy Butler gets serious, too.
Bryan Kalbrosky, 76ers: On one hand, we have a team that has the reigning MVP, an eight-game win streak, and the best defense in the league over the past two weeks. On the other, we have an offense that is below league average and not seeing peak performance from its stars. The former is a smarter bet than the latter.
Mike Sykes, Heat: Give me Miami in this matchup. I know the 76ers haven’t lost a game since Joel Embiid’s return. And maybe this is just me hoping for a Boston-Philly matchup a bit too much. But I just trust Jimmy Butler and Erik Spoelstra to guarantee themselves a playoff spot here.
Robert Zeglinski, 76ers: A bona fide matchup of traditional East titans, I’m gonna go with the team with the best player, and that’s Philadelphia and Joel Embiid. The 76ers won eight straight games to close the regular season with a healthy Joel Embiid pacing his team. I have utmost respect for Erik Spoelstra’s tough-as-nails Heat, but they’re up against the wall here.
EAST (ELIMINATION GAME): No. 9 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 10 Atlanta Hawks
April 17 (9:30 PM ET) on ESPN. Winner plays loser of No. 7 vs. No. 8.
Prince Grimes, Hawks: I’m picking Atlanta just because that’s the team I want to see win, though they haven’t given me much reason to believe they can win. Six straight losses to close the season doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Cole Huff, Bulls: Atlanta doesn’t believe in defense and I find that to be quite problematic in a single-game elimination scenario.
Bryan Kalbrosky, Hawks: It isn’t easy to come back from injury and surgery then make an immediate impact, but the joy of watching Trae Young put on a show is simply too much fun to resist here.
Mike Sykes, Bulls: I’ll take the Bulls here, mostly because they’re just a more cohesive team at this point. Atlanta is getting Trae Young back and that’ll certainly help, but Atlanta has an identity problem it needs to figure out. That won’t happen here.
Robert Zeglinski, Bulls: Does this really matter? I guess I’ll go with DeMar DeRozan and the Bulls’ bizarre dominance of fourth quarters and clutch time. Anyway, but really — does this matter?
WEST (8 SEED)
April 19 (TBD) on TNT. Winner plays No. 1 Thunder.
Prince Grimes, Warriors (vs. Pelicans): This is going to be an interesting game between two incredibly efficient 3-point shooting teams. But backs against the wall, this is when I expect Golden State’s championship meddle to show. Steph Curry and the Warriors advance.
Cole Huff, Pelicans (vs. Kings): The Kings ultimately run out of gas here and go into the offseason, needing to reassess and potentially make some big moves. Meanwhile, Zion Williamson bounces back to feast on a non-Lakers opponent and gets his Pelicans into the first round for what should be an entertaining matchup with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the OKC Thunder.
Bryan Kalbrosky, Pelicans (vs. Kings): This is a tough call but I’ll take the team with more depth and that is facing fewer injuries right now, which means I’m going with New Orleans. At full strength, maybe Sacramento would have a better chance here but luck simply isn’t on their side right now.
Mike Sykes, Pelicans (vs. Warriors): Give me New Orleans over Golden State for the 8 seed. I think this could be another tight one, but the Pelicans are a better team. There’s not a matchup problem with the Warriors here like they have with the Lakers. I think the talent on that roster is enough to get it done.
Robert Zeglinski, Warriors (vs. Lakers): This is not the Warriors’ golden era. Far from it. At this point, it’s about staying competitive relative to Steph Curry’s all-time greatness. But even with Golden State’s fall from grace, I’d be hard-pressed to say I trust the Lakers much more. If anything, I don’t think anyone in the purple and gold can stay with the Dubs’ offense for four quarters. At the very least, we should get another fun LeBron James-Curry battle.
EAST (8 SEED)
April 19 (TBD) on ESPN. Winner plays No. 1 Celtics.
Prince Grimes, Heat (vs Hawks): If I struggled to pick the Hawks over the Bulls, you know I’m not picking them over Miami. Elimination games tend to bring out the best in Jimmy Butler and the Heat.
Cole Huff, 76ers (vs. Bulls): The Bulls bow out in the final Play-In game for a consecutive season as Joel Embiid delivers a masterpiece and provides the City of Brotherly Love the false sense of confidence that the Sixers will give Boston a tough series.
Bryan Kalbrosky, Heat (vs. Bulls): As impressed as I’ve been by Coby White’s improvements this season, it’s still hard to imagine a scenario where the Heat entirely miss out on the playoffs so long as Erik Spoelstra is coaching this team.
Mike Sykes, 76ers (vs. Bulls): Give me Philly over Chicago for the 8 seed in the East. To put it plainly, Chicago has nothing for Joel Embiid. Absolutely nothing.
Robert Zeglinski, Heat (vs. Hawks): The Heat are weaker than last year. They’re more banged up, they’re less cohesive, they (still) struggle to score and it’s highly unlikely they replicate a Cinderella run to the Finals for the ages. But folks, Miami is made for this time of year. When the Heat’s backs are against the wall, when it’s win or go home, they are a juggernaut.
