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Sports Illustrated

Keith Stewart, PGA

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview: A Marathon of a Signature Test

SI Jordan Spieth Sam Burns Collin Morikawa Bay Hill Chris Kirk Riviera Tour Florida Luke List

ORLANDO, Fla. — Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are not politicians. Until we start asking them about golf and cease with the consistent candor about global professional tours, the Austin Eckroats and Grayson Murrays are going to continue taking home the trophies on the PGA Tour.

Much like Riviera, the Bay Hill Club and Lodge will play like a major-championship test for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Walking the practice tee, I feel an extreme sense of urgency amongst the elite competitors. With a field of 69 players going for $20 million in prize money, almost all of the PGA Tour’s best are in attendance for a signature event at one of the Tour's most familiar venues.

Comprised of the Champion (front nine) and Challenger (back nine), Dick Wilson (1961) and Mr. Palmer (2009) designed a layout that is a mirror image of entertainment. Take a look at the Google Maps overhead and scorecard at the same time. Hole No. 3 is a dogleg left around water, followed by a straight uphill par-5 and then a short positional par-4. Now take a look at Nos. 11, 12, and 13. They are the exact same design. This happens multiple times all over the course.

Our expert has his eye on Sam Burns in Orlando, noting his two wins in Tampa.
Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Bay Hill is seldom mentioned in the “predictive” course conversation but take a look at the leaderboards. The same player or archetype continues to contend on the King’s landscape. The par-72 course measures 7,466 yards. Four par-5s promote scoring while the longest set of par-3s on Tour help keep the birdie count in check. Power is most definitely an asset and one that will be featured for sure in this edition.

We’ve been besieged by rain since I arrived on Monday. February brought over two inches of precipitation to compound the turf troubles. Just like I wrote last week in Palm Beach Gardens, the winter weather has really limited turf growth across Florida. The rough is less dense than in years past and the greens are softer than Mr. Palmer would have approved of.

The average winning score of 8 under par over the last five years should be beaten. Target practice begins Thursday morning at the same time the skies are going to clear up. One defense is how Bay Hill forces you to get it close from long range. Almost 50% of the approach shots these guys face will come from over 175 yards. The best long-iron players hold a decisive advantage because creating birdie chances from 200-plus yards is the primary path to separating yourself from the field. The second skill needed to slide past your competition on Sunday is short game. It helps scoring on the par-5s, short par-4s and saving par overall. Players fare worse than the Tour average of greens in regulation, which is interesting considering these putting surfaces are the fourth largest on the PGA Tour, averaging 7,500 square feet.

Course familiarity plays a role on the greens more than anywhere else. Covered in Bermudagrass, these putting surfaces are the best of any of the Bermudagrass Florida venues. Smooth and subtle, they’re just another reason why Mr. Palmer’s course tends to be quite predictive. Can one of the five first timers win? Yes, if 2024 has taught us anything. Kurt Kitayama won last year as a Bay Hill rookie. But my win, place and show is going to feature the best of the middle tier. Until the elite close a couple events and prove they are focused on golf, I’m following the winning trend on Tour.

Par-4 scoring on difficult courses is always a very good area to focus on. At Bay Hill, I like to include the par-3 aficionados as well. Over the last 10 years, the champions have gained twice as many shots on the field on the par-3s than the par-5s. Watching the practice area you can see a dedicated group of professionals practicing their 200-yard game. Plenty of time is spent in the bunker sand as well. Eighty-four bunkers cover the course.

Another key I see players working on is trajectory. The higher you can launch it, the better. The Scotties of the world can hit very high long irons. In these soft conditions that will be an even bigger asset than when it is firm. Not every high-ball hitter sits in the top 10 of the OWGR. I see a few across that middle of the betting board. It will be interesting to see how most of the world’s best react to coming east. March means The Players is next door and more importantly, Augusta and the Masters.

The betting card provides a perfect balance of veteran Bay Hill experience and youthful ballstrikers. Four days is a long time to win a golf a tournament. Do not get discouraged if the card does not develop right away on Thursday. Bay Hill is one of the toughest non-major marathons on Tour.

Win: Sam Burns

“Bermuda” Sam Burns returns to the Sunshine State, where he has two career wins in nearby Tampa. Coming off four straight top 10s in 2024, Burns has the driver working and that allows him to score. On a tough course we love Burns being ranked first in bogey avoidance and know he can stroke it on the Bermudagrass greens. Gaining an average of 6-plus strokes on the field total over his last five starts, Sam Burns is perfectly positioned for career win No. 6. Take Sam Burns to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational (+2500 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. Russell Henley finished T41 at the Cognizant Classic.
Year-to-date: 0–9, -9.00 units

Place: Chris Kirk

Just when you thought Chris Kirk was having a career year in 2023, he wins the signature Sentry to start 2024. In 11 starts at API, Kirk has six top-20 results. He loves Bay Hill and Florida golf. The SEC college standout at Georgia can certainly score and comes off a hot final round 66 at PGA National on Sunday. Take Chris Kirk to finish Top 20 (+150 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. J.T. Poston was tabbed for a top 20 but finished 66th.
Year-to-date: 2–7, -4.32 units

Showdown: Jordan Spieth over Collin Morikawa

Jordan Spieth has never finished worse than fourth at the API. The three-time major winner can scramble and score around Bay Hill. Sixth in his last completed start at the WM Phoenix Open, Spieth looks better prepared for API than Collin Morikawa. Morikawa has started the year shaky on the greens and Bermudagrass is his worst surface. In three Orlando starts, Collin has finished 64th, ninth and missed a cut. Take Jordan Spieth over Collin Morikawa H2H (+105 DraftKings).

Last week's result: Winner! We took Tom Hoge over Luke List and cashed when List missed the cut.
Year-to-date: 4–4, -0.40 units

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.