The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.
The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2022 and 2023. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2023. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say that the schedule isn’t reliably different for the player.
Best Schedule Swings
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons – No NFL team ran fewer plays or gained fewer yards than the Falcons last year. So the rebuilding year happened at a bad time, with the schedule already working against them. Throw in a rookie quarterback and the results were not shocking. But the upgrade in quarterback schedule is immense as HC Arthur Smith’s second season kicks off with a more season crew of Ridder, Drake London, a healthy Kyle Pitts (hopefully) and the hype monster of Bijan Robinson. The Falcons may not rocket to the top of the standings, but an improvement appears a lock and the schedule is going to work for them this year.
Quarterbacks, Las Vegas Raiders – Maybe it will be Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe it will be Brian Hoyer. Maybe it will be fourth-round pick Aiden O’Connell. The only certainty is that it will not be Derek Carr for the first time in ten years. The offense under HC Josh McDaniels ended with moderate passing stats though most of that all went to Davante Adams. And the schedule was one of the worst, so just ending average on the pass was a success, even if Carr’s final year was in a tough situation. There will be opportunity once it is certain which quarterback is the starter.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers – Optimism is high for the 1.01 pick of this year. He lands on a rebuilding Carolina team that’s starting over, again, and restocked their offense mostly through free agency. It’s a tall order to expect even the best player in college to step into a highly productive role on a team that’s starting over with coaches, scheme and personnel, but at least the schedule won’t work against him as he starts to learn the ropes.
Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) – The Broncos were average at best in the first season of Wilson under center. But now HC Sean Payton shows up to do his magic to the sluggish offense of the last few seasons. The jury is still out on Wilson, who hasn’t been a difference-maker in the last two years, and the offense hasn’t had many upgrades while rumors abounded regarding potential trades of their wideouts. But Wilson gets a Top-5 schedule for 2022, and just in time to learn a new offense that worked wonders in New Orleans.
About the same schedule strength
Expect about the same schedule strength from the above teams. The only notable are both the Titans (Ryan Tannehill / Will Levis) and the Rams (Matt Stafford) still face a daunting set of opponents again this year.
Worst Schedule Swings
Kyler Murray (ARI) – There are many red flags surrounding the Cards and Murray. His planned return is uncertain, and his receiving corps was stripped of DeAndre Hopkins. Now he also faces the worst schedule and the largest drop in schedule strength, whenever he can return from his knee injury of 2022.
Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers – Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or Sam Darnold? Given the recent injury history of the 49ers’ quarterbacks, maybe it’ll be a bit of all three. The schedule strength suffers a dramatic swing from the No. 7 to the No. 30 ranked set of opponents. The 49ers defense helps prevent the need for a shootout and the rushing offense is in great shape with Christian McCaffrey. The overall talent in receivers is there, but an iffy situation at quarterback coupled with one of the worst schedule strengths makes the position risky for 2023.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – Herbert enjoyed what turned out to be the weakest schedule against quarterbacks last year, and while the stats suggest that he’ll have a tougher challenge, it may not be that noticed. The Chargers drafted Quentin Johnson to give them three great options at wideouts, and the drop from No. 1 was only to No. 7 – still better than most of the league.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts – Fantasy fans want to see the Colt’s rookie evolve into the next Lamar Jackson but he already missed last year’s softer No. 5 ranked schedule. Richardson projects as most dangerous, and more valuable in fantasy, from his rushing ability. The schedule is not kind but he’s not expected to immediately produced a high-powered passing attack.
