The regular season is winding down, which means the race for the 10th seed is heating up.
The final play-in tournament spot will come down to the Oklahoma City Thunder (38-42) and Dallas Mavericks (38-42), who have identical records and two games remaining.
The Thunder play the Utah Jazz on Thursday in their final road game of the season and the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday in their final home game.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks’ final two games are at home: against the Chicago Bulls on Friday and San Antonio Spurs on Sunday.
The Thunder own the tiebreaker over the Mavericks because they won the season series, 2-1. As a result, they will earn the 10th seed should the teams remain tied.
Both teams have struggled recently. The Thunder have gone 4-6 in their last 10 games with a current three-game losing streak. The Mavericks have gone 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Let’s look at all the possible scenarios where the Thunder could clinch the final play-in spot as the regular season nears its conclusion.
Thunder finish 2-0
This is the easiest and cleanest outcome for the Thunder.
The Thunder control their playoff path, provided they win their final two games. That scenario isn’t farfetched. The Jazz are missing several starters, and the Grizzlies might rest theirs in the finale.
Mavericks finish 0-2
If the Mavericks lose their final two games against a team locked in at 10th in the East and a tanking team, their playoff hopes vanish. The Thunder will clinch the 10th seed regardless of their record if the Mavericks lose both games.
After their surprising win against the Sacramento Kings, perhaps the Mavericks’ struggles reemerge in these final two games.
Thunder finish 1-1; Mavericks finish 1-1
Considering how much both squads have struggled over their last couple of weeks, this could be the most likely scenario.
The Thunder will have a gimme game against the Jazz, but the Grizzlies are a wild card with whether or not they play their best players. The Grizzlies are two games up on the third-place Kings, so it looks like they’re basically locked for the second seed.
But who knows — maybe Memphis wants to enter the playoff with some momentum and plays its starters. The Grizzlies have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games.
Meanwhile, the Maverick’s toughest game remaining is against the Bulls — who are essentially stuck as the 10th seed as they trail the Toronto Raptors by two games.
The injury report for the Bulls is not available, so who knows if they rest any of their starters or play with the goal to win.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Thunder’s magic number to clinch the 10th seed is two, which means any combination of two OKC wins or two Mavs’ losses will seal the deal.
If the Mavericks finish 2-0 and the Thunder finish 0-2, OKC will not make the play-in. The same can be said if the Thunder finish 1-1 and the Mavericks finish 2-0.
It’ll be an exhilarating few days to see how this unfolds as one team is playing with house money while the other’s entire future depends on if they can make a run.
