Welcome to our breakdown of the NFL playoff picture.
Moving forward, we’ll be publishing an updated version of this every week, looking at how the weekend’s action is swaying which teams will get an 18th game (and potentially beyond) and which will be going home on Jan. 8, 2024.
Although nobody has clinched anything this early, there are a couple of safe conclusions to draw looking at the standings.
In the AFC, it would take a monumental collapse for the Chiefs (7–2), Ravens (7–3) or Jaguars (6–3) to miss the playoffs, considering their records, talent and divisional situation. The Bengals (5–4) and Dolphins (6–3) also appear to be safe bets.
In the NFC, the Eagles (8–1) have the clear path to the top seed for the second consecutive year. It also looks like the Cowboys (6–3) will be a dangerous wild–card team, while the 49ers (6–3) and Seahawks (6–3) are both likely playoff teams who will battle for the NFC West crown. Then there’s the Lions (7–2), who should have a hammerlock on the NFC North, meaning they’ll host a playoff game for the first time since 1993.
Let’s take a look below at where the AFC and NFC playoff pictures stand, and who the biggest contenders are on the outside looking in.
AFC: Who’s In
AP Photo/Nick Wass
If the season ended today, here's who would make the playoffs:
No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 7–2, first, AFC West
The Chiefs won their bye week. Kansas City got a litany of excellent results in its pursuit of home-field advantage, with the Bengals, Ravens and Jaguars all losing at home. Andy Reid’s team has a tough game off its break with a Monday night showdown against the Eagles at Arrowhead, but afterward gets the Raiders and Packers.
No. 2: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 7–3, first, AFC North
Nobody had a tougher loss Sunday than Baltimore. The Ravens had a 15-point lead in the third quarter against a punchless Browns offense, only to throw a batted pick-six and then allow Deshaun Watson to complete his final 14 passes in a 33–31 defeat. Baltimore needs to regroup quickly with the Bengals coming to M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night.
No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 6–3, first, AFC South
The Jaguars were hoping to make a statement at home against the 49ers. Unfortunately, a statement was made, but not in the affirmative. Jacksonville was blown out 34–3, snapping its five-game winning streak. Still, the Jaguars are in good position, but they need to be careful. The Texans are only one game back in the AFC South, and Houston already has a head-to-head win over them.
No. 4: Miami Dolphins
Record: 6–3, first, AFC East
Miami sat home and undoubtedly enjoyed its bye week after an unsuccessful trip to Germany. The division is tight, and the Bills have a brutal slate ahead. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have five consecutive games where they’ll be favorites, drawing the Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Titans and Jets again. If Miami can keep beating inferior teams, it should be in excellent shape.
No. 5: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 6–3, second, AFC North
It’s tough to peg the Steelers. Mike Tomlin’s team has yet to outgain a team in total yards this season, and yet Pittsburgh is only a half game out of first place in the division. Next Sunday, Pittsburgh travels to Cleveland for a key divisional tilt before another battle in Ohio with the Bengals in Week 12.
No. 6: Cleveland Browns
Record: 6–3, third, AFC North
The Browns have to feel phenomenal. They earned a divisional split with the Ravens, winning a wild 33–31 affair Sunday. In the only division with all four teams more than .500, Cleveland has work to do, but the Browns are in good shape. Next week is huge, with the Steelers coming to the shores of Lake Erie. Cleveland will want revenge after losing to Pittsburgh in Week 2.
No. 7: Houston Texans
Record: 5–4, second, AFC South
Don’t just think of the Texans as a nice story. They have road wins over the Jaguars and Bengals this year, while rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has entered the MVP conversation. Houston might be a bit uneven as most young teams, but the schedule is advantageous. The Texans should be in the chase until the end, and might make the cut.
In the Hunt
Cincinnati Bengals (5–4): After losing to Houston, the Bengals now face the reality of beating the Ravens on Thursday night or falling to 5–5 with all five defeats in the AFC.
Buffalo Bills (5–4): Buffalo has to find a way to beat the Broncos on Monday night, and hopefully turn its season around. The Bills have a tough schedule ahead, including road dates with the Chiefs, Eagles, Chargers and Dolphins.
Indianapolis Colts (5–5): By beating the Patriots, the Colts stayed alive in the playoff race. Indianapolis is staying afloat with Gardner Minshew and a shaky defense, but coach Shane Steichen isn’t allowing it to sink.
NFC: Who’s In
Orlando Ramirez/USA TODAY Sports
If the season ended today, here's who would make the playoffs:
No. 1: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 8–1, first, NFC East
Philadelphia is in strong position as it comes out of its bye. However, the Eagles have a very difficult schedule with the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys and Seahawks up next. If Philly can survive that gauntlet, it will finish with the Giants twice and the Cardinals.
No. 2: Detroit Lions
Record: 7–2, first, NFC North
The schedule is a friend to the Lions. While Detroit ends the season with two games against the Vikings sandwiched around a road date with the Cowboys, the Lions’ next five games feature the Packers, Broncos, Saints and Bears twice. Detroit has to keep winning, with the Vikings both playing well and getting back Justin Jefferson soon. But the Lions have to feel good about their position.
No. 3: San Francisco 49ers
Record: 6–3, first, NFC West
After losing three straight, the 49ers had to get Brock Purdy back on track while shoring up their defense. Both things happened Sunday, with a 34–3 victory at Jacksonville. Purdy threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns, while the defense racked up five sacks of Trevor Lawrence.
No. 4: New Orleans Saints
Record: 5–5, first, NFC South
Well, someone has to win the NFC South. The Saints have the best chance, with everyone else under .500. Still, New Orleans has been woefully inconsistent as it heads into its bye week, a well-timed break after Derek Carr left injured in Sunday’s loss. The Saints are a good bet to make the playoffs considering the division, but if they can’t find another gear, it’s hard to envision a run come January.
No. 5: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 6–3, second, NFC West
Seattle has been uneven over the past month, but finds itself in a good spot. The Seahawks responded to being boat-raced in Baltimore with a hard-earned win over the Commanders, as Geno Smith went over 300 yards passing. After visiting the Rams next week, Seattle enters a challenging four-game stretch which includes the 49ers twice, Cowboys and Eagles.
No. 6: Dallas Cowboys
Record: 6–3, first, NFC East
This was an easy week for the Cowboys, who pounded the Giants. Dallas moved within two games of the Eagles, who, as mentioned above, now start a five-game stretch which will define their season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys take on the Panthers next before starting a three-game homestand.
No. 7: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 6–4, second, NFC North
Nine wins should equal the playoffs in the NFC. The Vikings only need three more in that scenario, and considering they're on a five-game winning streak, their outlook is good. Minnesota also has the Bears, Broncos, Raiders and Packers remaining on the slate. It’s hard to argue that Kevin O’Connell isn’t a favorite for Coach of the Year.
In the Hunt
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–5): A win over the Titans keeps Tampa Bay in the mix, but the Buccaneers have a rough stretch ahead with four road games out of their next five contests.
