With a victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, the Kansas City Chiefs established themselves as the dragon the rest of the NFL will chase and attempt to slay as long as two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes makes Arrowhead (get it right Cincinnati) his home office.
The focus of the pro football world now shifts towards, well, where else? Kansas City, where the 2023 NFL draft will take place at the end of April.
Of course, most of the intrigue begins with what the Chicago Bears will do with the first overall pick.
General manager Ryan Poles won't hesitate to take one of the top two defenders on the board — Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. or Georgia's Jalen Carter — after trading away sack-masters Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn last year.
I understand the Bears doing their due diligence with the quarterbacks in this class, but that will be more about driving the price tag of the pick up, not the future of Justin Fields.
Do the Houston Texans have a preference between Alabama's Bryce Young or Ohio State's C.J. Stroud? If they do, it would behoove GM Nick Caserio to trade with Poles, and move up one spot to secure his target. Otherwise, Caserio can sit tight knowing at least one of the top two quarterbacks in this class will be available where he picks.
The next logical trading partner for Poles would be Indianapolis GM Chris Ballard, who has already said he will "do whatever it takes" to trade up for his preferred quarterback.
The logical connective tissue between the two teams is Bears' head coach Matt Eberflus was the Colts' defensive coordinator for four seasons before Poles hired him in 2022.
Motivation exists for both teams to execute the trade as well. It would allow Indy to leapfrog its division rival for the most important position in the sport, and it would allow Poles to only move down three spots, where one of those top two defenders would almost certainly be available (considering the first two picks would likely be quarterbacks).
The NFL offseason is a myth. Draft season has officially begun.
Key dates going forward before we get to the draft in Kansas City, Mo. (April 27-29):
— Feb. 21-March 7: Franchise/transition player designation period
— Feb. 28-March 6: NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis
— March 7: Colleges can begin hosting pro days
— March 15: New league year begins at 1 p.m. (i.e. free agency)
MOCK PREAMBLE
This is an attempt at figuring out the best players available in this season's draft class, and which teams they'd match up well with considering the current draft order courtesy of NFL.com. The closer we get to draft day, the more I'll attempt to match what teams will actually do with their draft picks as opposed to what I believe they should do.
Last season, I tied for the most accurate NFL draft prognosticator in print, according to The Huddle Report. I was also tied for ninth overall (out of 158) for 2022. I'm fourth overall (out of 159) over the past five years.
The draft has become the Super Bowl of the NFL's second season — the NFL doesn't have an offseason — and a mock version of said draft is meant to educate, perhaps even entertain. At very least, it helps you pass the time.
Follow me on Twitter @UTEddieBrown so we can continue the conversation.
Here's an updated version of my 2023 NFL mock draft, now through two rounds:
FIRST ROUND
— 1. Chicago (3-14) — Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia, Jr.
Frankly, the only position the Bears might not have to address this offseason is quarterback. In previous mocks, I've given them Alabama's Will Anderson here, and although I have Anderson as the top player on my Big Board, I consider Carter more of a 1A than the second-best prospect in this draft class. The scheme-wrecking defensive lineman was arguably the most talented player on a historically-great Bulldogs defense that saw five prospects selected in the first round last year. Top needs: WR, DL, Edge
— 2. Houston (3-13-1) — Bryce Young, QB, Alabama, Jr.
Coming from the Patriots, GM Nick Caserio never experienced what it was like to draft this high, or need a quarterback really, but the position has to be at the top of his offseason list of priorities. Young has showcased an elite level skill set for two straight seasons — featuring special athleticism and intangibles with a dash of improv — this year with fewer playmakers surrounding him. One of those playmakers was John Metchie, who missed his rookie season for the Texans while being treated for leukemia. Metchie caught 96 balls for 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns his junior year at Alabama with Young under center. Of course, Young's size (5-foot-10, 195 pounds) will be debated, but barring the Chicago Bears staying put to select one of the elite defenders, he is the odds-on favorite to be chosen with the first pick after throwing for 321 yards and five touchdowns in a 45-20 Sugar Bowl victory over Kansas State. Top needs: QB, WR, DL
— 3. Arizona (4-13) — Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama, Jr.
The offensive and defensive lines are both very problematic, but with JJ Watt retiring and Zach Allen facing free agency, new GM Monti Ossenfort (former Titans director of player personnel) will need to replenish the pass rush immediately. Anderson would be a no-brainer here. Some scouts will say he's a bit undersized for an NFL edge rusher, but there are shades of Hall of Famer Derrick Thomas and future Hall of Famer Von Miller in his pass-rush approach — 34.5 sacks in three seasons with the Crimson Tide. Plus, he is equally adept at defending the run. I'd have no qualms with him going first overall. Top needs: OL, Edge, CB
— 4. Indianapolis (4-12-1) — CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio St., Jr.
GM Chris Ballard has tried to address the quarterback position through the trade market. There will be some options in free agency, but he'll likely have to draft one regardless, and I wouldn't be surprised if he made the Bears a "Godfather" offer for the first overall pick. Despite dealing with several injuries at wide receiver, Stroud didn't miss a beat this season — he was second in touchdown passes (41) and QBR (88.9) in 2022 — and nearly beat the defending national champions with 348 yards and four TDs, while showcasing his scrambling ability (he's a traditional pocket passer). Top needs: QB, WR, CB
— 5. Seattle from Denver (5-12) — Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson, Jr.
GM John Schneider is just as likely to trade either of his two first rounders than stand pat and make a selection, especially if QB Geno Smith returns in free agency. If the Seahawks hope to challenge the 49ers in the NFC West, they will have to continue to bolster the defensive and offensive lines. Murphy features very similar dimensions/traits to 2022 No. 1 overall draft pick Travon Walker. Top needs: DT, C, WR
— 6. Detroit from L.A. Rams (5-12) — Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon, So.
It appears Jared Goff may keep his job. This selection would pair nicely with former top-three pick Jeff Okudah and hopefully address a leaky pass defense for the Lions. Gonzalez has the size (6-2, 200) and physical traits that make most scouts salivate, and the Colorado transfer answered all questions regarding his ball production (four interceptions) in his only season in Eugene. His draft stock could lift off with a dynamic performance at the combine. Top needs: DL, CB, TE
— 7. Las Vegas (6-11) — Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern, Jr.
The Raiders are a darkhorse in a potential QB derby for this draft — I believe they'll target the position in free agency with Jimmy Garoppolo seeking a fresh start or even potentially try and reunite Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers through a trade — but regardless of who's under center, the protection will have to improve. Skoronski took over for Rashawn Slater as a true freshman in 2020 and the offense didn't miss a beat. Some scouts may say his size better suits him to play guard, but they also said that about Slater. Either way, he'd be an upgrade for Las Vegas and whoever ends up under center. Top needs: QB, DL, G
— 8. Atlanta (7-10) — Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech, Sr.
The Falcons simply can't pressure the quarterback. Wilson was one of nine players in the FBS to produce 60 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and six sacks before suffering a season-ending broken foot against Kansas. He's a physically gifted, ascending pass rusher who is explosive off the ball and powerful enough to make an immediate impact at the next level. Top needs: Edge, WR, DB
— 9. Carolina (7-10) — Will Levis, QB, Kentucky, Sr.
An attempt to trade for Deshaun Watson failed. Recycling Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield failed too, so the Panthers will once again be in the market for a signal-caller and I'm not sure the Bears would be willing to trade back this far. Levis' senior season was a mixed bag compared to his impressive 2021 campaign — he lost his top receiver (Wan'Dale Robinson) and offensive coordinator to the NFL — but he features the combination of arm talent, size (6-foot-3, 232 pounds) and mobility that usually sparks the imagination of an offensive coordinator. He fits the profile of what new head coach Frank Reich usually looks for in a quarterback. Top needs: QB, WR, TE
— 10. Philadelphia from New Orleans (7-10) — Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas, Jr.
Jalen Hurts had to carry the entire offensive load with his arm and legs in the Super Bowl, while both Miles Sanders and Boston Scott face free agency. Few things are certain at this point, but I'm fairly positive the Doak Walker Award-winning Robinson will be the first running back selected in late April (positional bias will likely keep him from going inside the top-10). He's an all-around threat who is light on his feet considering his size (6-foot, 215 pounds) and features home-run ability. Top needs: DL, RB, S
— 11. Tennessee (7-10) — Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio St., Jr.
New GM Ran Carthon (former 49ers director of player personnel) will have to address a porous pass defense, a lack of offensive weapons and a brittle offensive line. The first-tier pass rushers aren't available here so we go O-line. Johnson could very well end up in the top-10 based on his talent. He was the nation's top-ranked offensive tackle prospect in the 2020 recruiting class and has thrived at both left tackle and right guard for the Buckeyes. Top needs: WR, Edge, OL
— 12. Houston from Cleveland (7-10) — Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU, Jr.
The Texans have needs everywhere, but adding Johnston to a young offensive core that includes Alabama's Young, Metchie, Dameon Pierce and Nico Collins would form a solid foundation. Johnston has drawn comparisons to Cincinnati's Tee Higgins and the Chargers' Mike Williams, but he does Deebo Samuel-like things, forcing missed tackles when he has the ball in his hands — he's 6-foot-4, 215 pounds (Samuel is four inches shorter). Top needs: QB, WR, DL
— 13. N.Y. Jets (7-10) — Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia, So.
The Jets' best two offensive lineman (Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker) have been hurt and the rest are facing free agency this offseason. Jones doesn't have the experience other prospects possess in this class — he's only started 19 games for the Bulldogs — but his athleticism, intelligence and footwork pops when you watch him. Top needs: QB, LB, S
— 14. New England (8-9) — Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn St., Jr.
Jonathan Jones will be a free agent and will likely seek a raise, which usually means the Patriots will let him walk. The son of former All-Pro linebacker Joey Porter checks the size (6-2, 198) and physicality boxes. Plus, Junior's athleticism and talent pops when you watch him, but he'll need to refine his technique and develop more consistency to pay off his potential — his aggressive nature is a gift and a curse. Top needs: T, WR, DB
— 15. Green Bay (8-9) — Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame, Jr.
The further we get outside of the top 10, the harder it will be to pass on Mayer. The Irish pipeline at tight end to the NFL continues to flourish. Mayer isn't as explosive as Kyle Pitts, but his receiving acumen, size (6-foot-4, 265 pounds) and toughness put him just a tick below Pitts as a prospect. Both Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis will be free agents. Top needs: S, TE, Edge
— 16. Washington (8-8-1) — Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida, So.
Taylor Heinicke, Carson Wentz and Sam Howell (he was solid versus the Cowboys in Week 18) likely won't prohibit the Commanders from seeking a quarterback. Especially one that might remind coach Ron Rivera of Cam Newton — not necessarily his fashion sense — his former MVP signal-caller in Carolina. Richardson is the wild-card in this QB class. His range is anywhere from first overall pick — I expect scouts and coaches/coordinators to fall in love with his traits (i.e. ceiling) — to a Day 2 selection. Top needs: QB, OL, CB
— 17. Pittsburgh (9-8) — Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois, Sr.
Witherspoon finished with the highest coverage grade (92.5) in the FBS, according to Pro Football Focus. He used his size (6-1, 180) and ball skills — three interceptions and 14 passes defensed (tied-for-8th in FBS) — to dominate in man coverage this season, something the Steelers play a lot of. Top needs: T, CB, DL
— 18. Detroit (9-8) — Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson, So.
Bresee was the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2020 recruiting class. He showed flashes of dominance as a true freshman in 2020, but only played 152 snaps in 2021 before tearing his ACL. It appears he regained his explosiveness and remains one of the most versatile defensive lineman in this class, but his injury history has teams divided. Otherwise, I believe the Lions might consider taking him with the sixth pick. Top needs: DL, CB, TE
— 19. Tampa Bay (8-9) — Brian Branch, DB, Alabama, Jr.
Four of the Buccaneers' top-six defensive backs will be free agents. Branch isn't a "freakish" athlete, but can play anywhere in the secondary and is one of the surest tacklers you will find in a defensive backfield. Searching for a weakness here is a little like trying to find Waldo. Top needs: QB, DL, DB
— 20. Seattle (9-8) — O'Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida, Jr.
The Seahawks continue to reinforce the trenches. They landed two starting tackles in the top three rounds in last year's draft, but the interior is still in need of an upgrade. Torrence was an elite prospect at Louisiana, and he didn't miss a beat after transferring into the SEC, becoming a consensus All-American. Top needs: DT, C, WR
— NOTE: The NFL announced in August that the Miami Dolphins will forfeit their 2023 first-round pick (No. 21 overall) and 2024 third-round pick following an investigation into whether the team violated league policies pertaining to the integrity of the game.
— 22. L.A. Chargers (10-7) — Mazi Smith, DL, Michigan, Sr.
The Chargers defense improved the last month of the season, but still couldn't stop the run consistently and GM Tom Telesco likes to collect linebackers (making Oregon's Noah Sewell an option here), but the offensive line could be a more pressing need. Right tackle Trey Pipkins could leave in free agency, facilitating a move by Jamaree Salyer to the right side once Rashawn Slater is healthy — something the Chargers might want to consider regardless — which would create an opening on the interior after Matt Feiler struggled through his most difficult season as a pro. Stopping the run has been such a glaring weakness the last few seasons, I'm thinking it will be the top priority this offseason. Smith is an impressive athlete for his size (6-3, 335) and an immovable object in the run game. Top needs: DL, LB, OL
— 23. Baltimore (10-7) — Jordan Addison, WR, USC, Jr.
The Ravens biggest priority this offseason will be to extend Lamar Jackson and add more weapons on offense so he doesn't have to break his back (or overwhelm his legs) carrying the team going forward. The 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner (with Pittsburgh) wasn't as dominant for the Trojans last season, but he's a silky smooth route runner with enough speed to challenge a defense at every level and features inside/outside versatility. Top needs: CB, WR, Edge
— 24. Minnesota (13-4) — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio St., Jr.
Adam Thielen will be 33 next season and the Vikings have a potential out in his contract after this season. Smith-Njigba would pair nicely with Justin Jefferson. The Buckeyes had two receivers drafted in the first 11 picks last April and he out-produced both as a sophomore. An injury-riddled season has dampened his draft stock, but if he checks out during the draft process, he likely won't have to wait too long to hear his name called. Top needs: DB, WR, OL
— 25. Jacksonville (9-8) — Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia, So.
The Jaguars' defense has had its moments this season, but is still short a few pieces. As a red-shirt sophomore, Ringo's size/speed combination is still developing, but the former five-star recruit will compete to be the first cornerback selected solely based on his talent and potential. Top needs: CB, OL, DL
— 26. N.Y. Giants (9-7-1) — Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College, Sr.
The G-Men have dealt with many injuries and much disappointment at wide receiver since they traded Odell Beckham Jr. Flowers won't be for everyone with his smallish frame (5-10, 172), but he checks most boxes for a No. 1 receiver at the next level. He's a good route runner with excellent hands who is extremely dangerous in the open field thanks to elite speed, agility and vision. Top needs: WR, OL, DB
— 27. Dallas (12-5) — Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi St., Jr.
The Cowboys need someone to play opposite of Trevon Diggs. Forbes is a three-year starter in the SEC and has improved every season for the Bulldogs. He will need to bulk up (his tackling is suspect), but his instincts and ball production have been phenomenal with 14 interceptions in his collegiate career — a FBS-record six returned for a TD. His ball-hawking ways will fit in nicely with Dallas. Top needs: WR, DL, CB
— 28. Buffalo (13-3) — Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M, Jr.
Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are aging gracefully, but aging nonetheless. Poyer is a free agent after this season with Hyde's contract expiring after the 2023 season. Johnson is a rangy, versatile impact tackler whose size (6-3,195) and athleticism will allow defensive coordinators to get creative. Top needs: S, OL, WR
— 29. Cincinnati (12-4) — Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee, Sr.
The Bengals need to learn from the Super Bowl champion Chiefs and put every possible resource into shoring up the offensive line in order to support their elite quarterback. Wright's a four-year starter who has improved every season in Knoxville. Wright only allowed one pressure when he faced off against Alabama's Anderson in a 52-49 Volunteers' victory and was consistently dominant throughout Senior Bowl practices. Top needs: OL, S, TE
— 30. New Orleans from Denver through San Francisco (13-4) — Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa, So.
Assuming the Saints address the quarterback position before the draft, replenishing a weakened defensive line will be a top priority. The hype train is in full effect already for Van Ness. He reportedly received a first-round grade from the NFL Advisory Committee before declaring early for the draft despite not starting a single game for the Hawkeyes. He clearly has the functional strength needed at the next level and features a dominant bull rush with an NFL-caliber spin move. Top needs: QB, DL, T
— 31. Philadelphia (14-3) — Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech, Sr.
GM Howie Roseman added former All-Pros Robert Quinn (via trade) and Ndamukong Suh as stop gaps on the defensive line this year. White should be one of the top performers at the combine, where his draft stock will likely soar. A former tight end at Old Dominion, he's still developing his defensive chops, but his combination of size (6-5, 280) and speed doesn't come along every year. Top needs: DL, RB, S
— 32. Kansas City (14-3) — Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa St., Sr.
Chris Jones is essentially the Chiefs' pass rush — Frank Clark must think the season begins in January. McDonald has been highly productive for the Cyclones — he has at least five sacks in four straight seasons and double-digit sacks in two of the last three — despite playing out of position for most of his collegiate career. He's an explosive, instinctive pass rusher, who is already receiving a boost in his draft stock after his impressive performance during Senior Bowl week. Top needs: Edge, T, WR
SECOND ROUND
— 33. Pittsburgh from Chicago — Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio St., Sr.
— 34. Houston — Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia, Sr.
— 35. Arizona — Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota St., Sr.
— 36. Indianapolis — Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina, Jr.
— 37. L.A. Rams — Joe Tippman, OL, Wisconsin, Jr.
The Rams started 12 different players up front in their failure to run it back. Tippman played exclusively at center his last two seasons in Madison, but his size (6-6, 315) and athleticism translates to anywhere on the interior — he's a heat-seeking missile when asked to pull. Top needs: G, S, DL
— 38. Seattle from Denver — John Michael Schmitz, OL, Minnesota, Sr.
— 39. Las Vegas — Siaki Ika, DL, Baylor, Jr.
— 40. Carolina — Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia, Jr.
— 41. New Orleans — Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma, Jr.
— 42. Tennessee — Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee, Jr.
— 43. Cleveland — Isaiah Foskey, Edge, Notre Dame, Jr.
The Browns are still in need of impact players all along the defensive line. Foskey's versatile skill set, size and power would have likely made him a Day 2 selection had he entered the draft last season. A successful draft process could catapult him into the first round a couple months from now. Top needs: DL, Edge, WR
— 44. N.Y. Jets — Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson, Jr.
— 45. Atlanta — Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas, Jr.
— 46. Green Bay — Andre Carter, Edge, Army, Sr.
— 47. New England — Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina, Jr.
— 48. Washington — Steve Avila, OL, TCU, Sr.
— 49. Detroit — Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah, Sr.
— 50. Pittsburgh — Tuli Tuipulotu, DT, USC, Jr.
— 51. Tampa Bay — Zach Harrison, Edge, Ohio St., Sr.
— 52. Miami — Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah, Jr.
Injuries completely derailed the Dolphins' secondary and made it a weakness after it had been a strength the previous two seasons — it ended up costing defensive coordinator Josh Boyer his job. Phillips features a smaller frame, but his ability to mirror and match routes, plus his explosive athleticism and ball skills (nine career interceptions with four pick-sixes) more than make up for it. Top needs: CB, LB, RB
— 53. Seattle — Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati, Jr.
— 54. Chicago from Baltimore — Rashee Rice, WR, SMU, Sr.
— 55. L.A. Chargers — Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon, So.
The younger brother of Penei — the No. 7 pick overall in 2021 — has a knack for finding the ball, and the ability to punish a ball-carrier at the point of attack. Top needs: DL, LB, OL
— 56. Detroit from Minnesota — Daiyon Henley, LB, Washington St., Sr.
— 57. Jacksonville — Calijah Kancey, DL, Pittsburgh, Jr.
— 58. N.Y. Giants — Garrett Williams, CB, Syracuse, So.
— 59. Dallas — Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama, Jr.
— 60. Buffalo — Nathaniel Dell, WR, Houston, Jr.
— 61. Cincinnati — Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon St., Jr.
— 62. Carolina from San Francisco — B.J. Ojulari, Edge, LSU, Jr.
— 63. Philadelphia — Jammie Robinson, S, Florida St., Jr.
— 64. Kansas City — Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU, Jr.
