I just finished putting up my Christmas tree, which means two things.
First, my wife and stepdaughter need to hurry up and finalize their Christmas lists.
Second, it's officially mock draft season!
When I began analyzing the NFL draft over a decade ago many probably believed I was nuts for posting mock drafts before the college football or NFL season was even over.
Indeed, they must have thought me certifiably insane when I decided to release an updated mock every single week leading up to the draft itself.
Very few draft focused websites were doing this online, let alone, for a major metropolitan newspaper.
Now, we're living in a world where analyzing the draft and it's eligible prospects is a 24/7/365 business, not a side hustle, and I'm proud to have carved out a small piece of the pie for myself.
It's clear the draft couldn't come soon enough for fans of the Texans, Bears, and Panthers.
I included 21 of these players in my way-too-early projections back in May, but a lot has changed in seven months, and we still have five months before these picks are made for real.
Frankly, the world could be a vastly different place in late April, but I'll be here every week to guide you along the way.
Part of my weekly mock preamble explains it is an attempt at figuring out the best players available in this season's draft class, and which teams they'd match up well with considering the draft order courtesy of NFL.com. The closer we get to draft day, the more I attempt to match what teams will actually do with their draft picks as opposed to what I believe they should do.
Last season, I tied for the most accurate NFL draft prognosticator in print, according to The Huddle Report. I was also tied for ninth overall (out of 158) for 2022. I'm fourth overall (out of 159) over the past five years.
The draft has become the Super Bowl of the NFL's second season — the NFL doesn't have an off-season — and a mock version of said draft is meant to educate, perhaps even entertain. At very least, it helps you pass the time.
Follow me on Twitter @UTEddieBrown so we can continue the conversation.
Here's my first 2023 NFL mock draft:
FIRST ROUND
— 1. Houston (1-10-1) — Bryce Young, QB, Alabama, Jr.
Coming from the Patriots, General Manager Nick Caserio never experienced what it was like to need a quarterback this early, but the position has to be at the top of his offseason list of priorities. Young has showcased an elite level skill set for two straight seasons, this year with fewer playmakers surrounding him. Of course, his size (6-foot, 195 pounds) will be debated, but barring a team trading up for one of the elite defenders, Young is the odds-on favorite to be chosen with the top overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Top needs: QB, WR, DL
— 2. Chicago (3-10) — Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama, Jr.
The questions around Justin Fields have subsided. There are shades of Hall of Famer Derrick Thomas and future Hall of Famer Von Miller in Anderson's pass-rush approach, but he is equally adept at defending the run. I'd have no qualms with him going first overall. Top needs:WR, DL, LB
— 3. Seattle from Denver (3-9) — Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia, Jr.
What if I told you the most talented player on a historically-great Bulldogs defense that saw five prospects selected in the first round wasn't even eligible for the draft after last season? Carter is a scheme-wrecker and can attack an offense from any position on the defensive line. The Seahawks run defense has been a glaring weakness and will need to be addressed if they plan on challenging the 49ers in the NFC West. Top needs:Edge, DT, QB
— 4. Detroit from L.A. Rams (3-9) — CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio St., Jr.
I won't besmirch Jared Goff too much here, he has had a fine season, but I'm still not convinced he's the long-term answer at quarterback for a promising young Lions team. Stroud's accuracy makes him an ideal "point guard" for an offense that will feature Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and D'Andre Swift. Top needs:QB, LB, DB
— 5. Philadelphia from New Orleans (4-9) — Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson, So.
GM Howie Roseman added former All-Pros Robert Quinn (via trade) and Ndamukong Suh as stop gaps on the defensive line. Bresee was the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2020 recruiting class. He showed flashes of dominance as a true freshman in 2020, but only played 152 snaps in 2021 before tearing his ACL. He's bounced back in an impressive way and would pair nicely with Jordan Davis going forward. Top needs: DT, DB, Edge
— 6. Carolina (4-8) — Will Levis, QB, Kentucky, Sr.
An attempt to trade for Deshaun Watson failed. Recycling Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield (recently released) has failed as well. Levis' senior season has been a mixed bag compared to his impressive 2021 campaign, but he features the combination of arm talent, size (6-foot-3, 232 pounds) and mobility that usually sparks the imagination of an offensive coordinator. Top needs: QB, OL, WR
— 7. Jacksonville (4-8) — Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU, Jr.
A trio of Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Johnston would quicken Trevor Lawrence's development. Johnston does Deebo Samuel-like things, forcing missed tackles when he has the ball in his hands, but he's 6-foot-4, 215 pounds — Samuel is four inches shorter. Top needs: DL, CB, WR
— 8. Arizona (4-8) — Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern, Jr.
The Cardinals offensive line hasn't been great and Kelvin Beachum will be a free agent after this season. Skoronski took over for Rashawn Slater as a true freshman in 2020 and the offense didn't miss a beat. Some scouts may say his size better suits him to play guard, but they also said that about Slater. Top needs:OL, Edge, DB
— 9. Indianapolis (4-8-1) — Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia, So.
GM Chris Ballard has tried to address the quarterback position through the trade market. There will be some options in free agency, but he'll likely have to draft one regardless. I'm not ready to declare Florida's Anthony Richardson a top-10 pick so we'll deal with an aging secondary. As a red-shirt sophomore, Ringo's size/speed combination is still developing, but he'll compete to be the first cornerback selected next year if he decides to leave school. Top needs: QB, WR, CB
— 10. Atlanta (5-8) — Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech, Sr.
The Falcons simply can't pressure the quarterback. Wilson was one of nine players in the FBS to produce 60 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and six sacks before suffering a season-ending broken foot against Kansas. He's a physically gifted, ascending pass rusher who is explosive off the ball and powerful enough to make an immediate impact at the next level. Top needs: Edge, WR, DB
— 11. Green Bay (5-8) — Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame, Jr.
Rookie wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have both shown promise this season. The further we get outside of the top-10, the harder it will be to pass on Mayer. The Irish pipeline at tight end to the NFL continues to flourish. He isn't as explosive as Kyle Pitts, but his receiving acumen, size (6-foot-4, 265 pounds) and toughness put him just a tick below Pitts as a prospect. Top needs: DL, S, TE
— 12. Las Vegas (5-7) — Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson, Jr.
The Raiders are a darkhorse in a potential QB derby for this draft, but they are also perpetually looking to upgrade their defense. Murphy features very similar dimensions/traits to 2022 No. 1 overall draft pick Travon Walker. Top needs: OL, DL, QB
— 13. Houston from Cleveland (5-7) — Jordan Addison, WR, USC, Jr.
The Texans have needs everywhere, but adding Addison to Young and Dameon Pierce would form a solid foundation on offense. The 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner is a silky smooth route runner and has the speed to challenge a defense at every level. Top needs: QB, WR, DL
— 14. Pittsburgh (5-7) — Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio St., Jr.
Uncharacteristically, the Steelers have had a problematic offensive line for a few years now. Johnson could very well end up in the top-10 depending on how the draft order shakes out. He was the nation's top-ranked offensive tackle prospect in the 2020 recruiting class and has thrived at both left tackle and right guard for the Buckeyes. Top needs: OT, DB, WR
— 15. Detroit (5-7) — Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn St., Jr.
The son of former All-Pro linebacker Joey Porter would pair with former top-three pick Jeff Okudah and hopefully address a leaky pass defense for the Lions. Junior's athleticism and talent pops when you watch him, but he'll need to refine his technique and develop more consistency to pay off his potential — his aggressive nature is a gift and a curse. Top needs: QB, LB, DB
— 16. L.A. Chargers (6-6) — Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon, So.
The Chargers still can't stop the run and GM Tom Telesco likes to collect linebackers. The younger brother of Penei — the No. 7 pick overall in 2021 — has a knack for finding the ball, and the ability to punish a ball-carrier at the point of attack. Top needs: DL, LB, OL
— 17. New England (6-6) — Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina, Jr.
Jonathan Jones will be a free agent and is deserving of a raise, which usually means the Patriots will let him walk. Smith was Jaycee Horn's successor and maintained Horn's excellence for the Gamecocks. So much so, quarterbacks have essentially avoided him this season. Top needs: WR, OL, CB
— 18. Washington (7-5-1) — Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida, So.
Sam Howell's existence on the roster won't prohibit the Commanders from seeking a quarterback. Especially one that might remind coach Ron Rivera of Cam Newton — not necessarily his fashion sense — his former MVP signal-caller in Carolina. Richardson is the wild card in this QB class. His range is anywhere from first overall pick — I expect scouts and coaches/coordinators to fall in love with his traits (i.e. ceiling) — to a Day 2 selection. Top needs: CB, OL, QB
— 19. Tampa Bay (6-6) — Isaiah Foskey, Edge, Notre Dame, Jr.
Most of the Buccaneers current defensive line is facing free agency once again. Foskey's versatile skill set, size and power would have likely made him a day two selection had he entered the draft last season. He's worthy of a first-round pick this time around. Top needs: QB, DL, DB
— 20. Seattle (7-5) — Jared Verse, Edge, Florida St., Jr.
The Seahawks take a page out of the Niners' playbook and hyper-focus on upgrading their front seven with their two first-round picks. Verse, a transfer from FCS-level Albany, is a powerful pass rusher who lives in the opponent's backfield — he's among the nation's leaders with 14.5 tackles for loss. Top needs: Edge, DT, QB
— 21. Tennessee (7-5) — Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon, So.
The Titans just fired GM Jon Robinson, so I'll have to re-calibrate my approach once they find a long-term replacement, but the new hire will have to address a porous pass defense. Gonzalez has the size (6-2, 200) and physical traits that make most scouts salivate, and the Colorado transfer has answered all questions regarding ball production (four interceptions). Top needs: OL, CB, WR
— 22. N.Y. Jets (7-5) — Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson, Jr.
The Jets have a potential out in CJ Mosely's contract after this season and coach Robert Saleh needs a difference maker in coverage at linebacker in the middle of his defense. Simpson is everything you are looking for in a modern coverage linebacker. Top needs: QB, LB, OL
— 23. N.Y. Giants (7-4-1) — O'Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida, Jr.
The Giants' interior O-line is in desperate need of an upgrade. Torrence was an elite prospect at Louisiana, and he didn't miss a beat after transferring into the SEC. Top needs: WR, QB, OL
— 24. Denver from San Francisco (8-4) — Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia, Sr.
The Broncos will seek a replacement for Von Miller and Bradley Chubb this offseason. The former five-star recruit is athletic enough to make plays from sideline to sideline. A refined approach to rushing the passer is needed to unlock his unlimited potential. It remains to be seen how his season-ending pectoral tear will affect his draft stock. Top needs: OL, Edge, WR
— 25. Baltimore (8-4) — Brian Branch, CB, Alabama, Jr.
The Ravens biggest priority this off-season will be to extend Lamar Jackson and potentially add more weapons on offense so he doesn't have to break his back carrying the team going forward. Next in line might be replacing Marcus Peters if he walks in free agency. Branch can play anywhere in the secondary and is one of the surest tacklers you will find in a defensive backfield. Top needs: CB, WR, Edge
— 26. Cincinnati (8-4) — Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia, So.
Joe Burrow might actually match the brilliance of his final collegiate season in the NFL if the Bengals ever get this offensive line right. Jones hasn't allowed a single sack this season. Top needs: T, DB, DL
— 27. Kansas City (9-3) — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio St., Jr.
You must constantly replenish your offensive line and wide receiver group if you're fortunate enough to have Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback. The Buckeyes had two receivers drafted in the first 11 picks last April and Smith-Njigba out-produced both as a sophomore. An injury-riddled season has dampened his draft stock, but if he checks out during the draft process, he likely won't be available here. Top needs: T, WR, DL
— 28. Dallas (9-3) — Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas, Jr.
Tony Pollard is due a significant raise and Ezekiel Elliott often looks like he's moving in slow motion these days. Few things are certain at this point, but I'm fairly positive Robinson will be the first running back off the board (and there's a chance he goes in the top-20). Top needs:DB, WR, OL
— 29. Buffalo (9-3) — Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina, Jr.
Assuming the Bills don't sign Odell Beckham Jr., GM Brandon Beane will be in the market for a third receiver. Downs' size (5-10, 175) will cause some consternation — Buffalo won't have a problem with it — but he's skilled and athletic enough to overcome it. His explosiveness will stress defensive backs at every level of the route tree and he's slippery after the catch. Top needs: WR, S, LB
— 30. Minnesota (10-2) — Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M, Jr.
The Vikings secondary continues to be inconsistent at best (a real problem at worst). Johnson is a rangy, versatile impact tackler whose size (6-3,195) and athleticism will allow defensive coordinators to get creative. Top needs: DB, WR, OL
— 31. Philadelphia (11-1) — Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame, Jr.
Safeties Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps are both facing free agency. The Northwestern transfer replaced Kyle Hamilton for the Irish. The drop-off wasn't significant with Joseph, a consensus first team All-American in 2020. Top needs: DT, DB, Edge
— NOTE: The NFL announced in August that the Miami Dolphins will forfeit their 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-round pick following an investigation into whether the team violated league policies pertaining to the integrity of the game.
