As the college football season winds down, there have been some intriguing developments when it comes to the draft stock of some of this year’s top quarterback prospects.
While Kentucky’s Will Levis came into the year with lofty expectations (and remains a top-five pick in many current projections), his disappointing 2022 campaign has some wondering whether or not he’s worthy of a first-round selection. Florida’s Anthony Richardson hasn’t had the kind of production through the air that some might have hoped for, but is his rare talent enough to still see him come off the board in the top 10?
Which quarterbacks have impressed so much this season that they’ve vaulted themselves from the Day 2/mid-round range into the first-round conversation?
Let’s find out in our latest two-round projection for the 2023 NFL draft, using the latest updated order following Week 10 results:
*NOTE: The Miami Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick in next year’s draft as a result of the NFL’s investigation into tampering violations.
1. Houston Texans | Alabama QB Bryce Young
Unless Davis Mills takes a massive leap forward in his development over the second half of the season, the Texans need to spend this pick on a franchise quarterback. Regardless of any concerns about his size, Young is the best, most complete prospect at the position in this year’s class.
2. Las Vegas Raiders | Georgia DL Jalen Carter
This is a tough call for the Raiders between Carter and Alabama edge defender Will Anderson, so we’ll go with the bigger need. Maxx Crosby is a stud, and while Chandler Jones has been a big disappointment this year, he’s still better than what the Raiders have along the interior. Carter’s dominant presence is exactly what this defensive front needs.
3. Carolina Panthers | Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud
Whoever takes over on a permanent basis for Matt Rhule will need to end the revolving door at quarterback, and this pick is the place to do it. Stroud has all the physical and mental tools to become a franchise passer at the next level, and could finally stabilize this struggling franchise.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO) | Alabama EDGE Will Anderson
This just isn’t fair. I’m sure if the Saints knew on draft day last year that they were giving away a potential top-five pick, they probably would’ve held onto this pick. If this plays out, the Eagles could end up winning a Super Bowl, then landing arguably the best overall prospect in the entire draft.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars | TCU WR Quentin Johnston
The Jags double-dipped on defense in the first round this year, but next year’s top pick needs to be spent helping Trevor Lawrence on the other side of the ball. Johnston has the size, athleticism, physicality and ball skills to be the top receiver off the board, and would immediately be Lawrence’s new favorite target.
6. Chicago Bears | Penn State OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
This pick has to be spent on help for Justin Fields, either at wide receiver, or along the offensive line. This scenario gives the Bears better value in the trenches, with a 19-year-old stud who already looks like an elite talent with franchise-player potential at left tackle.
7. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) | Clemson EDGE Myles Murphy
Seattle crushed the 2022 draft, and they’ve got a pair of first-rounders next year to keep building on that success. They could use help all across their defensive front, and in this scenario, they’re able to land an edge defender with all the physical traits to be a perfect fit in Pete Carroll’s defense.
8. Detroit Lions (from LAR) | Florida QB Anthony Richardson
If you think this is too high for Richardson given his inconsistent production this season, go back and look at Josh Allen’s numbers from his last year at Wyoming. The Lions wouldn’t be taking Richardson for what he is right now, but rather for the rare skill set that could make him the kind of superstar Allen has become down the line.
9. Houston Texans (from CLE) | Georgia CB Kelee Ringo
The defensive front needs help, but the Texans shouldn’t pass up better value at another position just to reach for a need. Ringo has all the tools to be this year’s top corner prospect, and would pair up with Derek Stingley Jr. to give the Texans one of the league’s most promising tandems at a premium position.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers | Northwestern OL Peter Skoronski
There are multiple needs on defense, but addressing the offensive line has to the top priority for the Steelers next offseason. Skoronski may not have the size or length NFL teams prefer at tackle, but he’s a polished, technically sound blocker who could play inside or outside at a high level.
11. Detroit Lions | Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.
Jeff Okudah is finally living up to his draft slot now that he’s fully healthy, but the Lions still need another top-flight corner on the opposite side of the field. The son of a Pro Bowl defender, Porter has that kind of potential himself, and has been a nightmare for opposing receivers.
12. Atlanta Falcons | Clemson DL Bryan Bresee
Grady Jarrett is one of the NFL’s best interior defenders, but he can’t do everything himself. The Falcons need to give him some help inside, and this situation gives them the perfect opportunity. Bresee has bounced back from last year’s season-ending injury with a strong 2022 season, and would be a great fit here.
13. Arizona Cardinals | Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson
There are multiple needs on both sides of the ball here, so this is about finding the best value at any number of positions. In this scenario, grabbing a huge, athletic edge defender to replace what the Cardinals lost when Chandler Jones left would be an ideal way to go.
14. Green Bay Packers | USC WR Jordan Addison
The Packers have plenty of needs across the board, but even if Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs continue to impress, adding another young playmaker for the passing game wouldn’t hurt. What Addison lacks in size, he makes up for with reliable hands, smooth routes, and big-play explosiveness.
15. Indianapolis Colts | Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Most would expect Kentucky’s Will Levis here, but I’m still waiting to see anything on film from him that proves he’s worthy of a first-round pick. Penix, on the other hand, has been showing off franchise-quarterback traits all year long after transferring from Indiana, while leading the nation in passing yards.
16. Washington Commanders | South Carolina CB Cam Smith
This secondary needs a true shutdown artist to take over the No. 1 corner spot, and this gives Washington the perfect chance to do just that. Smith has the size, athleticism, physicality and ball skills to be that kind of player at the next level.
17. Los Angeles Chargers | Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr.
Rashawn Slater is already one of the NFL’s best left tackles, but the Chargers need a long-term upgrade on the right side to keep Justin Herbert protected. Johnson has a track record of success against top competition, and can play either side at an extremely high level.
18. Cincinnati Bengals | Clemson LB Trenton Simpson
Even if the Bengals end up keeping Jessie Bates III, this defense could use another versatile, athletic playmaker who can line up all over the field. Simpson can play in the box, in the slot, and just about anywhere else, and wreak havoc on opposing offenses.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez
Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting are both headed for free agency, so the Bucs could use another starting-caliber corner to pair with Carlton Davis III. Gonzalez has the size and length Todd Bowles loves at the position, along with the athleticism and ball skills to be an immediate playmaker.
20. Denver Broncos (from SF via MIA) | Florida State EDGE Jared Verse
The Broncos got this pick by trading away their best pass rusher in Bradley Chubb, so replacing him here would be a wise move. Verse has been one of this year’s fastest-rising prospects, and his explosiveness off the line could make him a dominant presence off the edge at the next level.
21. New England Patriots | Baylor DL Siaki Ika
If anyone knows the value of a dominant nose tackle, it’s Bill Belichick, who had Vince Wilfork eating up space for a decade in New England. It’s a high bar, but Ika has all the traits to become that kind of presence at the heart of the Patriots’ defensive front.
22. Seattle Seahawks | Georgia TE Darnell Washington
It’s not their biggest need, but with an additional first-round pick, the Seahawks can afford a luxury. Washington is a rare athlete for his size, and brings limitless potential as both a big-play receiver, and a potentially dominant blocker thanks to that massive frame.
23. New York Jets | Georgia OT Broderick Jones
Injuries have ravaged this offensive line, leaving the Jets with more questions than answers at both tackle spots. Jones has been impressive this season against top competition, and has all the traits to quickly develop into a quality starter at a premium position.
24. Buffalo Bills | Texas RB Bijan Robinson
There might be more pressing needs elsewhere, but this is just too much fun to pass up, and the Bills might not be able to resist adding another dynamic weapon to their offense. Robinson might be a top-10 overall talent in this draft, but he could end up falling this far, and land in the perfect place to make a massive, immediate impact.
25. Baltimore Ravens | Alabama DB Brian Branch
This secondary needs help at both levels, so the Ravens would be wise to land a versatile defender who can line up all over the field. Branch can play outside, in the slot, or on the back end, and bring the same athleticism, instincts, and big-play ability to every spot.
26. Tennessee Titans | Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer
This offense desperately needs more playmakers in the passing game, but if you’re gonna play in this offense, you’d better be able to block. Mayer can do both extremely well, and would be a solid match of need and value for the Titans here.
27. Dallas Cowboys | Utah CB Clark Phillips III
Trevon Diggs is obviously one of the best corners in the game right now, but the Cowboys need an upgrade on the other side of the field. Phillips isn’t the biggest corner, but his instincts, ball skills, and leaping ability have still made him one of the best playmaking corners in the nation.
28. New York Giants | Washington WR Rome Odunze
If there’s a worse receiver situation in the NFL right now, I’d love to see it. The Giants desperately need an infusion of talent here, and they’ve got some solid options in this scenario. Odunze isn’t getting enough first-round buzz just yet, but that should change in a big way by the time the draft rolls around.
29. Minnesota Vikings | LSU WR Kayshon Boutte
Adam Thielen isn’t getting any younger, and the Vikings should find a younger understudy to eventually take over as Justin Jefferson’s running mate at receiver. Boutte hasn’t put up the kind of numbers many expected so far this season, but he’s still got the skill set to become a No. 1 receiver in the pros.
30. Kansas City Chiefs | Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison
The Chiefs still haven’t solved their issues at right tackle, and if they head into the draft with the same situation they have currently, this pick needs to be where they find the solution. Harrison checks every box for a starting-caliber tackle prospect, and can play on either side.
31. Philadelphia Eagles | Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Jalen Hurts has this offensive running on all cylinders, but a versatile, explosive weapon like Gibbs could help take the unit to another level. The Georgia Tech transfer has been an absolute stud for the Crimson Tide, and one of the most dynamic players in all of college football when the ball’s in his hands.
32. Houston Texans | Army EDGE Andre Carter II
33. Las Vegas Raiders | Florida OL O'Cyrus Torrence
34. New Orleans Saints | Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker
35. Jacksonville Jaguars | Mississippi State CB Emmanuel Forbes
36. Pittsburgh Steelers (from CHI) | LSU EDGE BJ Ojulari
37. Carolina Panthers | SMU WR Rashee Rice
38. Los Angeles Rams | Maryland OT Jaelyn Duncan
39. Cleveland Browns | Kansas State EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
40. Pittsburgh Steelers | Michigan DL Mazi Smith
41. Detroit Lions | Texas A&M S Antonio Johnson
42. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) | Florida DL Gervon Dexter
43. Arizona Cardinals | Texas A&M CB Jaylon Jones
44. Green Bay Packers | Notre Dame S Brandon Joseph
45. Atlanta Falcons | Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith
46. Indianapolis Colts | USC OL Andrew Voorhees
47. Washington Commanders | Kentucky QB Will Levis
48. Cincinnati Bengals | Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
49. Los Angeles Chargers | North Carolina WR Josh Downs
50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Oregon LB Noah Sewell
51. New England Patriots | Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon
52. Carolina Panthers (from SF) | Alabama LB Henry To'o To'o
53. Seattle Seahawks | Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt
54. Buffalo Bills | Alabama S Jordan Battle
55. New York Jets | Arkansas LB Drew Sanders
56. Tennessee Titans | Ohio State OL Luke Wypler
57. Dallas Cowboys | Ohio State OT Dawand Jones
58. Chicago Bears (from BAL) | Notre Dame EDGE Isaiah Foskey
59. New York Giants | Iowa LB Jack Campbell
60. Miami Dolphins | USC DL Tuli Tuipulotu
61. Detroit Lions (from MIN) | Utah TE Dalton Kincaid
62. Kansas City Chiefs | Syracuse CB Garrett Willams
63. Philadelphia Eagles | BYU OT Blake Freeland
