Well before the Panthers traded into the top spot, it was all but guaranteed that someone other than the Bears would hold the first pick by the time the draft starts on April 27.
While it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bears, currently slated to pick ninth, were to trade down again, one thing is certain: There will be more trades impacting the first round of the draft. In this iteration of my mock, I attempted to project some realistic trades that could happen in the 2023 NFL draft.
Three of the four trades projected involve quarterbacks, and the fourth involves a team that is expected to make a trade for a veteran quarterback.
Note: There are only 31 picks, because the Dolphins have forfeited their first-round pick in 2023.
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1
Carolina Panthers (via CHI): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio StateCarolina’s aggressive move to the top of the draft was one of the least surprising moves this offseason. Over the past four seasons, seven different quarterbacks have started multiple games for the Panthers. As the franchise begins a new era with Frank Reich, who coincidentally started Carolina’s first-ever game in 1995, the Panthers have the opportunity to end the revolving door under center.
While Stroud benefited from playing with a strong supporting cast at Ohio State, he throws with outstanding accuracy, touch and anticipation from the pocket. There weren’t many examples of Stroud making plays outside of structure before his final game against Georgia, but the athleticism and off-script improvisational skills he showcased in that game provide a promising glimpse of what he can do when plays break down.
2
Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, AlabamaIt’s possible, if Young isn’t available, that this pick won’t be a quarterback. While he lacks ideal size, Young is always composed, processes information quickly and is accurate to all three levels. He thrives making plays outside of structure, and he elevates the play of those around him.
3
Projected trade: Colts send picks No. 4 and No. 35 to the Cardinals for No. 3 and No. 96.
Indianapolis Colts (via ARI): Anthony Richardson, QB, FloridaIf the draft starts QB-QB, as it does in this mock, the Colts could seek to prevent another QB-needy team from leapfrogging them. Despite his inexperience as a one-year starter, Richardson has more upside than any quarterback in this draft class due to his rare combination of size (6'4" and 244 pounds), speed (4.43 40-yard dash) and arm strength. With Gardner Minshew following Shane Steichen from Philadelphia to Indianapolis, the former Gator would have the opportunity to sit until he’s ready.
4
Projected trade: Cardinals send picks No. 3 and No. 96 to the Colts for No. 4 and No. 35.
Arizona Cardinals (via IND): Will Anderson Jr., edge, AlabamaAnderson was hyperproductive in his three years in Tuscaloosa, with 34.5 career sacks and 62 tackles for loss. The Alabama edge defender uses his power, length and burst to impact the game whether rushing the passer or defending the run. As general manager Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon make their first pick together, Anderson is a foundational prospect who would set the tone for the direction of the franchise.
5
Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): Jalen Carter, IDL, GeorgiaDrew Rosenhaus believes his client is a top-10 lock, but it hasn’t been a good predraft process for Carter (he pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges for reckless driving and racing, then had an underwhelming pro day workout). That said, the former Bulldog was the most talented prospect on a team that yielded five first-round picks in 2022 and has won back-to-back championships. He’s a versatile and disruptive defender with his combination of overwhelming power and first-step explosiveness.
6
Detroit Lions (via LAR): Tyree Wilson, edge, Texas TechRookies Aidan Hutchinson (9.5) and James Houston (eight) combined for 17.5 sacks last season in Detroit, but you can never have too many pass rushers. Wilson has an excellent combination of size, length and power. He finished his most productive season with 50 pressures, per PFF, and 61 tackles, 14 TFLs and seven sacks despite a foot injury that cut it short.
7
Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, OregonThe Raiders tied for a league-low six interceptions in 2022. While they have signed cornerbacks Brandon Facyson, Duke Shelley and David Long Jr. to relatively modest short-term contracts in free agency, Gonzalez has the traits to quickly develop into the CB1 for Vegas. A fluid athlete with good size and outstanding speed, Gonzalez finished last season with four interceptions.
8
Projected trade: Jets send picks No. 13 and No. 43 to the Falcons for No. 8 and No. 110.
New York Jets (via Falcons): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio StateMekhi Becton is down to about 350 pounds, but he has missed 33 consecutive games, and there’s a good chance the Jets won’t pick up his fifth-year option. Johnson is ideally suited to play left tackle given his combination of size, length and athleticism, but he has started at both right guard (2021) and left tackle (’22) for Ohio State. Assuming the 13th pick is not needed in the expected trade for Aaron Rodgers, the Jets could use it to move up for a player who would hopefully be on the team much longer.
9
Chicago Bears (via CAR): Peter Skoronski, OT, NorthwesternAs Justin Fields heads into his third season, it makes sense for the Bears to continue to strengthen the supporting cast around him. Skoronski, a three-year starter at left tackle, is technically sound with smooth and balanced footwork and is one of the safest prospects in this draft class despite a lack of arm length (32¼" arms).
10
Projected trade: Buccaneers send picks No. 19, No. 50 and No. 153 to the Eagles for No. 10.
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Baker Mayfield, who signed a one-year, $4 million contract this offseason, is far from a lock to become Tom Brady’s long-term replacement in Tampa. If Levis starts to slide, the Bucs could trade up to get in front of the Titans (11th pick) and Commanders (16th). While the 2022 season did not go as well for Levis as hoped, injuries played a part. His physical traits—prototypical size, arm talent and mobility—combined with his intangibles and toughness could entice the Buccaneers to bet on his upside.
11
Tennessee Titans: Devon Witherspoon, CB, IllinoisThree of Tennessee’s cornerbacks—Kristian Fulton, Chris Jackson and newly signed Sean Murphy-Bunting—will be unrestricted free agents after the 2023 season. In addition, Caleb Farley has played only 12 career games since being selected in the first round in ’21. Witherspoon didn’t start playing football until his junior year in high school, but he was a three-year starter for the Illini. He’s a confident, smart and physical cornerback with outstanding ball skills. Witherspoon finished last season with three interceptions and 14 pass breakups.
12
Houston Texans (via CLE): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio StateSmith-Njigba lacks elite top-end speed, but he posted combine-best performances in both the three-cone (6.57 seconds) and 20-yard shuttle (3.93). He’s a polished route runner with outstanding ball skills and body control. A nagging hamstring injury forced him to miss nearly all of 2022, but he set the Big Ten receiving record with 1,606 yards in ’21.
13
Projected trade: Falcons send picks No. 8 and No. 110 to the Jets for No. 13 and No. 43.
Atlanta Falcons (via Jets): Bijan Robinson, RB, TexasTyler Allgeier was highly productive (1,035 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per carry), especially as a fifth-round rookie in 2022. As productive as Allgeier was last year, Arthur Smith may be one of the few coaches willing to take an elite running back prospect this early, as only Chicago ran the ball more often (56.19%) than Atlanta (55.29%) last season. Robinson has outstanding size, speed, vision and contact balance, and his 183 missed tackles forced over the past two seasons, per PFF, are 56 more than the next closest back. In addition, Robinson is a dynamic receiver out of the backfield.
14
New England Patriots: Broderick Jones, OT, GeorgiaOffensive tackles Trent Brown, Riley Reiff and Yodny Cajuste will be free agents after the 2023 season, while Calvin Anderson and Conor McDermott are slated to become free agents after the ’24 season. Jones has the length, athleticism and potential to provide long-term stability at left tackle as he continues to grow into his frame and refine his technique.
15
Green Bay Packers: Lukas Van Ness, edge, Iowa“Hercules” was primarily utilized as an edge defender this past season after mostly aligning inside in 2021. Van Ness can win with his blend of power, length and relentless effort, but the 272-pound ascending prospect ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at the combine as well. Van Ness has a total of 19.5 TFLs and 13.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Rashan Gary, who tore his ACL midseason last year, will potentially become a free agent after the upcoming season.
16
Washington Commanders: Dalton Kincaid, TE, UtahThis is a talented and deep tight end class, and Kincaid is the most talented of the group as a pure receiving threat. The former Ute is a savvy route runner with run-after-catch ability and outstanding ball skills. He finished 2022 with 70 catches for 890 yards and eight touchdowns.
17
Pittsburgh Steelers: Darnell Wright, OT, TennesseeWright is coming off his best season, which he has followed up with impressive performances at the Senior Bowl and NFL combine. The former five-star recruit is a massive and powerful right tackle prospect who offers some positional versatility. Over the past four seasons, Wright has made a total of 42 starts—27 at right tackle, 13 at left tackle and two at right guard.
18
Detroit Lions: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre DameMayer has plenty of experience playing in-line and is the most complete tight end in this draft class. His all-around skill set would help the Lions in both the passing and running game. Mayer was the focal point of Notre Dame’s passing offense as he led the team in receiving in each of his three seasons in South Bend.
19
Projected trade: Vikings send picks No. 23 and No. 87 to the Eagles for No. 19 (received in the projected trade above).
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Kirk Cousins is entering his age-35 season and will be a free agent after 2023, so the Vikings could begin to prepare for life without him, whether that’s in ’24 or later. Hooker tore his ACL last November, which could limit his early-season availability, and there will be a significant adjustment from the Vols’ spread offense. That said, Hooker is an accurate passer with good size and mobility, and there’s increasing momentum that he will be selected in the first round. We know Eagles GM Howie Roseman is willing to make deals on draft day, and this mock now has him trading back twice.
20
Seattle Seahawks: Nolan Smith, edge, GeorgiaThe Seahawks double-dip on Georgia defenders in this mock draft with Carter and Smith. Smith’s athletic profile compares favorably to that of Haason Reddick, and although he’s an undersized edge rusher, he’s an outstanding run defender. While he’s not a finished product as a pass rusher, there is plenty of upside given his explosive athleticism. Smith’s elite leadership qualities should endear him quickly to his coaches and teammates.
21
Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCUBefore the start of free agency, the Chargers restructured the contracts of receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Both receivers will now have cap numbers greater than $30 million for 2024, the final years of their contracts. Although Johnston has had some issues with drops, he is a big-bodied receiver with the speed to win vertically. He averaged 19 yards per catch through his three seasons at TCU.
22
Baltimore Ravens: Myles Murphy, edge, ClemsonAlthough I’ve slotted a wide receiver to the Ravens in all five previous iterations of my mock draft, this is a classic example of the Ravens drafting the best player available. Murphy is an elite athlete with inside-outside versatility and is an excellent run defender. While a hamstring injury delayed his ability to work out, the 268-pound edge defender ran a 4.51 40-yard dash with a 1.59 10-yard split at a workout in early April.
23
Projected trade: Eagles send pick No. 19 to the Vikings for No. 23 and No. 87.
Philadelphia Eagles (via MIN): Calijah Kancey, IDL, PittsburghThe Eagles brought back 32-year-old Fletcher Cox for another season, but Javon Hargrave signed a four-year contract with the 49ers. Although Kancey is undersized and lacks length (30 5/8" arms), his quick hands and feet allow him to win inside as a pass rusher. He posted a DT-best 40-yard dash (4.67 seconds) with a 1.64 10-yard split at the combine. Kancey has recorded at least seven sacks and 13 TFLs in back-to-back seasons.
24
Jacksonville Jaguars: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn StatePorter is a physical corner with excellent size, length and speed. The former Nittany Lion tied Kansas State’s Julius Brents for the longest arms (34") among cornerbacks at this year’s combine. Although he had only one career interception at Penn State, he is disruptive at the catch point and finished 2022 with a career-high 11 passes defended.
25
New York Giants: Deonte Banks, CB, MarylandThe Giants need an upgrade opposite Adoree’ Jackson, and they could target some of their other top needs (center and wide receiver) on Day 2. Banks tested extremely well at the combine—4.35 40-yard dash, 42" vertical and 11'4" broad jump. He’s a willing and reliable tackler, who had his most productive season in 2022 with nine passes defended.
26
Dallas Cowboys: Bryan Bresee, IDL, ClemsonThe Cowboys have filled some of their biggest needs this offseason by trading late-round picks for Stephon Gilmore and Brandin Cooks, and re-signing Leighton Vander Esch and Donovan Wilson. Going into the draft, they can now take the best player available without a major need to fill early. Injuries have slowed Bresee over the past two seasons, but he has the power and quickness to be a disruptive presence inside for the Cowboys.
27
Buffalo Bills: O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, FloridaThe Bills have signed Connor McGovern in free agency, but that shouldn’t preclude them from adding the top guard prospect in this year’s draft. The Bills have hosted Torrence on one of their official 30 visits. Torrence compiled 46 total starts between Louisiana and Florida, handled the jump in competition well last season and is an outstanding run blocker with tremendous power.
28
Cincinnati Bengals: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio StateThe Bengals signed Orlando Brown Jr. to protect Joe Burrow’s blindside, which in turn will shift Jonah Williams to the right side. Not only is Williams unhappy about the move, but he is a free agent after the 2023 season. Jones is a massive right tackle prospect with rare length and a mauler in the run game.
29
New Orleans Saints (via SF): Jordan Addison, WR, USCChris Olave had an outstanding rookie season (72/1,042/4), but it’s unclear what the Saints will get from Michael Thomas. New Orleans restructured his contract, but Thomas has played a total of only 10 games over the past three seasons. Addison plays faster than he timed at the combine (4.49 40-yard dash) and is a polished route runner with run-after-catch ability.
30
Philadelphia Eagles: Brian Branch, S, AlabamaWith C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps signing with the Lions and Raiders, respectively, Branch could be a target if still available at the end of the first round. Branch’s versatility, intelligence and instincts make him one of the safest prospects in this draft class. Branch is an incredibly reliable tackler, and he posted the second-lowest missed tackle rate (3.3%) among defenders with 50-plus tackles last season, per PFF.
31
Kansas City Chiefs: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston CollegeTight end Travis Kelce led the team in receiving, but JuJu Smith-Schuster (78/933/3) led the team’s wide receivers in 2022 and has signed with the Patriots in free agency. Flowers is a quick and smooth athlete who is elusive after the catch with an extra gear. He was highly productive at Boston College, finishing last season with 78 catches for 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns.
