Now that the NFL’s legal tampering period has begun, the vapor-deals for impending free agents, who can officially sign their contracts when the new league year begins at 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, March 15, are coming thick and fast. While none of those deals are officially official, they’re as official as they can be from a legal perspective, and we can go with the years and numbers as written by various NFL insiders.
So, with that in mind, it’s time to assign grades to these deals months before we have seen these players in their new schemes, working with their new coaches, and aligning with their new players. It’s an inexact science at best, but based on tape and metrics to date, as well as how these players’ new teams are building their rosters in this free agency period, we have enough of an idea to at least opine on the transactions.
Here are our far-too-early grades for all the impact (almost) free agent signings in 2023.
Lions to give DB Cameron Sutton a three-year, $33 million deal. Grade: A+
In the 2022 season, per Pro Football Focus, the Detroit Lions’ cornerbacks allowed 16 touchdowns, and had just three interceptions. You don’t need to be a football savant to know that that is a Big Problem for a team that wants to contend at any level of football. It’s why most mock drafts are sending various cornerbacks to Detroit with the sixth overall pick as a default strategy, and it’s why the Lions have agreed to give former Pittsburgh Steelers defensive back Cameron Sutton a three-year, $33 million contract with $22.5 million guaranteed.
It’s a great deal to acquire a guy who was equally adept outside and in the slot last season. Overall in his 2022 season, Sutton allowed 36 catches on 71 targets for 411 yards, 132 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, three interceptions, eight pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 69.6, which was fifth-best in the NFL among cornerbacks playing at least 50% of their teams’ defensive snaps.
Sutton can go up against the NFL’s best receivers and come out on top. I’m not quite sure why he didn’t have a more robust market, but kudos to the Lions for leaping all over this one.
New Lions cornerback Cameron Sutton square-dancing with Davante Adams for a pass breakup. Sutton gave up the fifth-lowest opponent passer rating (69.6) among starting cornerbacks in 2022. An absolute steal for Detroit. pic.twitter.com/jGdZrRu9Bn
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2023
Dolphins to give LB David Long a two-year, $11 million contract. Grade: A+
There are those deals in free agency that make you stand up, shake your head, and say out loud: “That team got THAT GUY, and they only had to pay THAT MUCH?!?!?!?”
So is the example of former Tennessee Titans linebacker David Long, who will sign with the Miami Dolphins for just $11 million over the next two seasons. We don’t need to know the guaranteed money, because this is a crazy-good deal for Miami no matter what it is.
A sixth-round pick in the 2019 draft out of West Virginia, the 5-foot-11, 225-pound Long had 18 total pressures last season in just 47 pass-rushing snaps, 65 tackles and 40 stops in 216 run defense reps, and he allowed 47 receptions on 55 targets for 468 yards, 286 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 87.0.
New Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio asks a lot of his linebackers in frequent nickel sets, and Long is all set to make the most of that. He did miss the Titans’ last five games last season due to injury (which may explain the bargain price in part), but when he’s on the field, Long is the kind of linebacker who can set the tone for your entire defense. As the Dolphins traded for Jalen Ramsey on Sunday, they’re filling up with those kinds of tone-setters.
No big deal. Just former Titans and new Dolphins LB David Long recording a PBU from a motion cornerback position. Vic Fangio is going to get EVIL with this dude. pic.twitter.com/sEZiaYnpw5
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2023
And yes, Long is more than just great in coverage. What a steal!
David Long tackled opposing ball carriers for a loss or no gain on 6.6% of his run defense snaps last season, the 2nd-highest run stuff rate in the NFL (min. 200 run snaps).
Long also was effective in coverage, allowing -5.1 receptions over expected (6th among LB).#FinsUp https://t.co/5oON4aCJML pic.twitter.com/ABu6Ttv9rS
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 13, 2023
Browns to give EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo a three-year, $19 million deal. Grade: A+
The Cleveland Browns have been trying for a while to find the ideal bookend for top edge-rusher Myles Garrett, and they may have finally done so when the 2023 league year kicks over. For now, they’ve agreed to terms with former Houston Texans edge-rusher Ogbonnia Okoronkwo on a three-year, $19 million deal with $12.5 million guaranteed.
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo broke out in his first season as a full-time player in 2022, generating the 3rd-highest pressure rate in the NFL (16.4%, min. 200 pass rushes).
The Browns now have 2 of the top 5 pressure rate leaders from 2022 (Myles Garrett: 16.3%, 4th).#Browns https://t.co/PABWrDJMUE pic.twitter.com/4Wk7H6KzF8
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 13, 2023
It’s quite the steal for a player who really came into his own last season, though he had been ascending for a while. The 2018 fifth-round pick of the Los Angeles Rams out of Oklahoma had five sacks, six quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback hurries in just 268 pass-rushing snaps. At 6-foot-2 and 253 pounds, Okoronkwo can also play the run when his ears aren’t pinned back, and he brings everything from a bull rush to one of the wickedest spin moves in the NFL to the table.
If you blink, you will miss Ogbonnia Okoronkwo's (No. 45) filthy spin move. Very nice get for the Browns. pic.twitter.com/aS0cXaFEkS
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2023
This is one of those deals, unheralded at the time, that could pay major dividends down the road. The Browns have an ace signing here.
Raiders to give WR Jakobi Meyers a three-year, $33 million deal. Grade: A
As is the case with most former Patriots assistants of any stripe, Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels seems to want as many players as possible who understand the Patriot Way. So, the Raiders have given former Pats receiver Jakobi Meyers a three-year, $33 million deal with $21 million guaranteed. It’s a good deal for Meyers, who was the consensus best player at his position in this free agency cycle.
Of course, Meyers has already thrown one touchdown pass to the Raiders, albeit inadvertently:
Players with game winning TD throws in 2022 for the Raiders:
Derek Carr: 1
Jakobi Meyers: 1
pic.twitter.com/NGIUIO5eVf— JT (@CondorSZN) March 14, 2023
So, there’s that. Meyers joins a receiver group that was already stacked with Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, so former Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (who agreed to a three-year, $64 million deal with the Raiders yesterday) has all the targets he could want — and very few excuses.
Last season, Meyers caught 67 passes on 96 targets for 804 yards and six touchdowns in a misbegotten offense run by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Explosive plays were few and far between, but Meyers still managed to get his.
Not a lot of big plays in New England's offense last season, but Jakobi Meyers did have a few. The Raiders probably remembered this 39-yard catch. pic.twitter.com/uOa3dRPdvv
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 14, 2023
Meyers can get open from just about everywhere — from outside, the slot, and the backfield. He’s a complete receiver who will add a lot to McDaniels’ passing game.
Maybe just leave the throwing of the football to others.
49ers to give DI Javon Hargrave a four-year, $84 million deal. Grade: A
The Philadelphia Eagles just lost the epicenter of their dominant defensive line, as the San Francisco 49ers have agreed to give defensive tackle Javon Hargrave a four-year, $84 million contract with $40 million guaranteed, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
The average of $21 million per year puts Hargrave right up there at his position, tied for third with Indianapolis’ DeForest Buckner and Leonard Williams of the New York Giants. Only Aaron Donald and Daron Payne of the Washington Commanders, who recently signed a massive four-year, 90 million extension, will have larger contracts on a per-year basis.
But Hargrave has proven to be worth the scratch. Philadelphia got Hargrave on a three-year, $39 million deal in 2020, and that turned out to be a real steal. Last season, Hargrave has 12 sacks, six quarterback hits, 48 quarterback hurries, and 36 stops.
But Hargrave’s effect on the Eagles’ defense went beyond his own stats – it’s how the Eagles’ defense changed when he wasn’t on the field. Per Sports Info Solutions, Hargrave was on the field for 649 snaps and off the field for 363. When he was on the field. The Eagles’ pressure rate went from 33.3% to 37.8%, their sack rate went from 8.4% to 12.0%, their yards per attempt allowed went from 5.4 through 4.7, and the opponent rushing touchdown rate went from 5.1% to 3.4%. You could argue that Hargrave has as massive an effect as any defensive tackle in the league in 2022.
The 49ers will put Hargrave in the middle of a defensive line that already had the personnel to give opposing offenses all kinds of problems, and with a true force multiplier in Hargrave, those offensive problems should continue to multiply.
Seahawks to give DL Dre'Mont Jones a three-year, $51 million contract. Grade: A-
Under Pete Carroll, the Seattle Seahawks have had a knack for taking potential multi-gap disruptors, perfecting their games, and turning them loose on an unfortunate and unsuspecting NFL. Seattle has done it once again with an agreement to sign former Denver Broncos defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones to a three-year, $51 million contract.
Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network has the particulars.
Full terms for the #Seahawks and DT Dre'Mont Jones:
— 3 years, $51.53M
— $23.5M in Year 1
— $35.02M over two years.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 14, 2023
Jones has the stuff to be the best such player for the Seahawks since Michael Bennett in his prime, which is as high as you can set the bar. It comes at a crucial time for the team, as everybody in the organization knows just how much the Seahawks need help along the front seven.
Jones has been an underrated pressure generator since the Broncos took him in the third round of the 2019 draft out of Ohio State, and he did the contract year thing perfectly with his best season to date in 2022. Jones amassed seven sacks, five quarterback hits, 33 quarterback hurries, and 25 stops in just 13 games — he missed the last four games of Denver’s season with a hip injury.
When healthy, Jones can attack from just about any gap at 6-foot-3 and 281 pounds, and he has some vicious pass-rush moves to glue it all together. On this sack of Trevor Lawrence in Week 8, watch how Jones (No. 93) started off on the edge aligned with Bradley Chubb, let right tackle Jawaan Taylor deal with Chubb, and just bulled right guard Brandon Scherff into the quarterback.
It wasn’t any easier for Chiefs right guard Trey Smith when Jones went to work on him in Week 14.
The Seahawks under Pete Carroll have always had a knack for taking multi-gap disruptors and unleashing them on the rest of the NFL. Dre'Mont Jones gives them their best such player since Michael Bennett in his prime. Sucks to be Chiefs RG Trey Smith on this rep. pic.twitter.com/qUgQ9hcFcN
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 14, 2023
There was also this ridiculous play against the Jets in Week 7, when Jones started off in flat coverage, and had the athleticism and wherewithal to come back and take quarterback Zach Wilson down.
As long as health isn’t an issue, this is an “A” signing, but we’ll hold that in reserve for now.
Falcons to give S Jessie Bates III a four-year, $64.02 million deal. Grade: A-
The 2022 Atlanta Falcons had a couple of underrated role-players at safety in Richie Grant and Jaylinn Hawkins, but neither man was going to move the needle as a top-tier safety would. So, Atlanta took the Cincinnati Bengals’ best player at the position off the market, giving Jessie Bates III a four-year, $64.02 million deal. Bates played on the franchise tag last season, and he did it well, with 29 catches allowed on 41 targets for 429 yards, 143 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, four interceptions, four pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 97.6.
As Vonn Bell signed a deal with the Carolina Panthers, the Bengals are now in the unenviable position of replacing both of their safeties — and given the success those two had together, that’s a big ask.
Bates is a tough, smart veteran defender who finally got the payday he deserved, and he’ll be a major asset in Atlanta’s rebuilding defense.
Broncos to give DL Zach Allen a three-year, $47.75 million deal. Grade: B+
The Denver Broncos did a lot to solidify their pass rush, both interior and exterior, with the agreement to sign former Arizona Cardinals defensive lineman Zach Allen to a thee-year, $47.75 million deal with $32.5 million guaranteed. It’s a significant bet on an ascending player.
The Cardinals took Allen in the third round of the 2019 draft out of Boston College, and Allen was off to a relatively unremarkable start to his NFL career through his first two seasons. But then, J.J. Watt came to the Valley of the Sun in 2021 with a few ideas on how to be a multi-gap disruptor, and Allen was a willing disciple. The 6-foot-4, 281 Allen had his best season to date in 2022, with six sacks, 15 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback hurries in 427 pass-rushing snaps. Allen’s sacks came everywhere from the edge to aligned over the guards to true nose-shade alignments — so, like his mentor, he’s developed into a guy who can harass quarterbacks from any place you’d like.
On this sack of New England’s Mac Jones in Week 14, Allen gave rookie left guard Cole Strange an evil inside/outside move, while Mr. Watt edged around the Patriots’ offensive line to get to Jones from the other side. They met at Jones, which was a nice touch.
Broncos to give OG Ben Powers a four-year, $52 million deal. Grade: B+
Through Sean Payton’s history as a head coach and offensive shot-caller, he’s relied on tough, mobile, smart offensive guards who could maul at the line of scrimmage, and get to the second and third levels to eliminate defenders on screens and in the run game. Payton’s Broncos may lose Dalton Risner in free agency, so it was out to the open market to find that guy on the open market.
It was the choice of Payton and Broncos general manager George Paton to avail themselves of former Baltimore Ravens guard Ben Powers, who they will sign to a four-year, $52 million deal with 28.5 million guaranteed.
Last season, the 2018 fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma had an outstanding season, allowing just one sack, one quarterback hit, and 11 quarterback hurries in 633 pass-blocking reps, and proving more than able to just beat people up in the run game in a highly complex ground attack.
It’s a lot of money for a team that has already made a weird decision to pay former 49ers right tackle Mike McGlinchey a ton of cash, but Powers is far more a sure thing than a risk. The Broncos have experienced this already.
As much as the Mike McGlinchey signing has me wondering WTF with the Broncos, the Ben Powers deal is pretty sweet. Powers is a mauler who can get things done at the second level, and he fits what Sean Payton needs in guards — Peyton prioritizes that position. pic.twitter.com/wVFyNXvrJU
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2023
Browns to give DI Dalvin Tomlinson a four-year, $57 million deal. Grade: B
The 2022 Cleveland Browns ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ Defensive Adjusted Line Yards metric. They ranked 29th in running back yards allowed per carry (5.00), and they were near the bottom of the league in most situations that would indicate serious problems with one’s interior defensive line. So, they went out and got former Minnesota Vikings defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson on a four-year, $57 million deal with $27.5 million guaranteed.
The Vikings’ defense was a much bigger disaster in most areas last season, ranking 27th overall in DVOA, 26th against the pass, and 19th against the run, but the list of people to blame for that (starting with former defensive coordinator Ed Donatell) should not include Tomlinson, who had his most productive season as a pass-rusher and run-stopper in 2022. Most human beings his size (6-foot-3 and a conservative 325 pounds) move to and through the pocket the way he does.
In 2022, Tomlinson was good for three sacks, seven quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback hurries in 348 pass-rushing snaps, and he had 26 stops in 256 run defense reps. He’s never had more than 658 snaps in a season though six years with the Vikings and Giants, so there is a rotational aspect to his game, but when Tomlinson is on the field for your defense, your defense is simply better.
This sack of Aaron Rodgers in Week 17 was just bad news for Packers right guard Jon Runyan Jr. for a couple of reasons: First, the Vikings were in a bear front with the defensive tackles to the outside shoulders of the guard, which forces one-on-ones. Second, Runyan had to deal with Tomlinson’s evil combination of stack-and-shed power, and quickness around the blocker when he’s beaten.
And if you’re trying a slide game to get your running back going against Tomlinson, you need to watch for his ability to penetrate on the move. Saquon Barkley of the Giants discovered that in the wild-card round on this three-yard loss.
This contract is a shade rich if Tomlinson continues to be a rotational guy, but there’s no denying his excellence when he’s on the field.
Chiefs to give OT Jawaan Taylor a four-year, $80 million deal. Grade: B
The Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs have officially moved on from Orlando Brown in the person of former Jacksonville Jaguars offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor, and the Chiefs have done so quite decisively. Taylor will receive a four-year, $80 million deal with $60 million guaranteed, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
The interesting thing about this move is that Taylor, who allowed five sacks, one quarterback hit, and 15 quarterback hurries in 775 pass-blocking snaps last season, was almost exclusively a right tackle. All indications are that Taylor will flip to the left side, which he hasn’t really done throughout his four years in the NFL. Taylor played a handful of snaps on the side side of the offensive line last season, but they were almost entirely situational.
New Chiefs OT Jawaan Taylor (No. 75) did play a handful of snaps on the left side of the line last season for the Jaguars, but they were mostly heavy personnel plays in which Cam Robinson was outside. It'll be interesting to see how Taylor makes the switch. pic.twitter.com/WwJZyAk6Dl
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 13, 2023
No matter how talented an offensive tackle may be (and Taylor is a very good player), moving from right to left or vice versa is a transition that takes time. That’s the only hesitation on this deal, and given the success Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and offensive line coach Andy Heck have had overall, we’ll take the positive over here. It’s just a bit of a wonderment in the short term, and that’s a lot of money for a transitional move.
Bears to give LB Tremaine Edmunds a 4-year, $72 million deal. Grade: B-
The Chicago Bears, fresh off their massive trade with the Carolina Panthers that netted them an avalanche of picks and receiver D.J. Moore in exchange for the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, are partying like it’s 1999 at the start of free agency, grabbing two high-quality linebackers right out of the gate. Former Eagles stalwart T.J. Edwards will get a three-year, $19.5 million contract once the new league year flips over, but the big deal at the position is the four-year, $72 million contract given to former Buffalo Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. The deal includes $50 million guaranteed, which makes it the largest contract for an inside linebacker in the NFL today.
The Bills took Edmunds out of Virginia Tech with the 16th overall pick in the 2018 draft, and waited four years before Edmunds’ football acumen caught up to his insane athleticism. It all kicked in last season, as Edmunds became the complete linebacker the Bills hoped he would be. He amassed two sacks, 10 total quarterback pressures, 91 tackles, 42 stops, and 46 catches allowed on 67 targets for 359 yards, 216 yards after the catch, one touchdown, one interception, 10 pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 80.4.
The only real issue with this deal is a big one — Edmunds has had one great season after four that were average to below-average. There are subsequent unknowns to make you wonder, and combined with the size of the contract, that’s where the B- comes from.
Raiders to give QB Jimmy Garoppolo a three-year, $67.5 million deal. Grade: C
Jimmy Garoppolo has been reunited with Josh McDaniels, as the Las Vegas Raiders will give the veteran quarterback a three-year, $67.5 million contract with $34 million guaranteed, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
McDaniels, now the Raiders’ head coach, worked with Garoppolo as the New England Patriots’ offensive coordinator from 2014 through 2016 after the Patriots took Garoppolo in the second round of the 2014 draft out of East Illinois. Garoppolo completed 67% of his passes for 690 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions as Tom Brady’s backup, which set him up for the San Francisco 49ers to trade for him in October, 2017. The 49ers signed Garoppolo to a five-year, $137.5 million extension in 2019, and Garoppolo walked through just about all of that contract, for better or worse.
Garoppolo’s numbers with the 49ers look very good — a 67.6% completion rate over six seasons, with 82 touchdown passes, 42 interceptions, and a passer rating of 99.2. But Garoppolo never really lifted his team above its station — certainly not in the 49ers’ Super Bowl season of 2019, and not since. The 49ers had already moved beyond Garoppolo with the major trade that netted them Trey Lance, and the fact that Brock Purdy was able to lead that offense last year at a level Garoppolo really couldn’t last season after both Lance and Garoppolo were hurt says a lot.
There’s little doubt that McDaniels will get the most out of Garoppolo, but what does that really mean? And is Garoppolo even better than Derek Carr, who McDaniels was so eager to jettison after one season? This low grade is not about how great Jimmy Garoppolo is or isn’t, and more about the Raiders’ plan. They have Garoppolo on a relatively lowball deal, which is nice, but a bridge quarterback with a bad defense isn’t a recipe for postseason success.
Broncos to give OT Mike McGlinchey a 5-year, $87.5 million deal. Grade: D
Under Sean Payton, the Denver Broncos are not messing around with their offensive line. They’ve already added two major names in former Baltimore Ravens guard Ben Powers on a four-year, $52 million deal, and then, the decision to add former San Francisco 49ers right tackle Mike McGlinchey to a five-year, $87.5 million deal with more than $50 million guaranteed, per Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network.
It’s an… interesting move for a guy who has allowed at least five sacks and at least 28 total pressures in each of his four full seasons — his 2021 season was limited due to injury. Last season, on 650 pass-blocking reps, McGlinchey gave up six sacks, quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback hurries, and he was decent in the ruu game.
McGlinchey’s AAV of $17.5 million puts him in the top four among right tackles in the NFL, right below the $18 million sported by Lane Johnson of the Philadelphia Eagles, who is unquestionably the best player at his position in the NFL. McGlinchey is a decent player, but he’s nowhere near Johnson’s level, and the fact that he’s getting at least $10 million per year guaranteed is still Top 10 money, and that money is more real.
Based on the tape, it’s hard to justify that, especially as McGlinchey is coming out of five seasons in a Kyle Shanahan system that inherently maximizes the attributes of its blockers.
The low grade here is not reflective of McGlinchey as a “horrible” player; it’s really about the Broncos seemingly engaging in wishful thinking at a key position.
Falcons to give QB Taylor Heinicke a two-year, $14 million deal. Grade: WTF
The Atlanta Falcons don’t really know what they have at the quarterback position. Last season, they had unimpressive veteran Marcus Mariota, and at-times-impressive third-round rookie Desmond Ridder. Atlanta’s aggregate quarterback completed 61.9% of its passes for 7.1 yards per attempt, 17 touchdowns, and nine interceptions — efficient enough, but the exact opposite of explosive.
Replacing Mariota in the short term in the low-ceiling veteran category will be former Washington Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke on a two-year, $14 million deal with $6.32 million guaranteed. The deal could go as high as $20 million with incentives.
The low grade here doesn’t have much to do with Heinicke — it’s really more about the Falcons kicking a small can down the road at the game’s most important position, wasting the efforts of a great offensive skill position group and a good offensive line in the process. Heinicke immediately becomes the best quarterback on Arthur Smith’s roster, and unless Atlanta wants to get funky with the eighth pick in the draft, that’ll remain so.
The good news? You could do a lot worse than Heinicke as a premier backup and spot starter.
Anytime you have a quarterback with nearly three times more explosive plays than interceptions in a season… well, you have something to work with, even if that quarterback may not project as an obvious starter. Heinicke was one-third of the Commanders’ WTF quarterback troika that ended up with Carsen Wentz getting benched, and fifth-round rookie Sam Howell as the prohibitive starter heading into 2023. When Heinicke was on the field, he did alright, completing 62.2% of his passes for 1,859 yards (7.2 yards per attempt), 12 touchdowns, six interceptions, and 17 explosive plays. On throws of 20 or more air yards, he completed 11 of 29 for 383 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Heinicke has a decent sense of the field, can make the occasional big throw, and though he’s a bit random at times, he’s not a serial error factory. This 41-yard completion to Terry McLaurin in Week 10 against the Eagles shows his ultimate upside.
Again, this isn’t about Heinicke’s place in the Pantheon — it’s more about his travels from one WTF QB situation to another.
