NFL decision-makers are no doubt over the moon to be past a 2022 class of draftable quarterbacks so average, that only one — Pitt’s Kenny Pickett to the Steelers with the 20th overall pick — was selected in the first round. This year’s group of prospective signal-callers is quite a bit stronger; depending on team needs and preferences, there could be as many as five quarterbacks who will hear their names called this Thursday night.
Beyond that, the dropoff is pretty severe, so, with all due respect for everyone from Tanner McKee to Dorian Thompson-Robinson to Stetson Bennett, we’re capping this detailed evaluation with those potential five first-rounders in the interest of more detail for the top guys.
Here are the top five quarterbacks for the 2023 NFL draft.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).
(All prospect measurement percentiles courtesy of MockDraftable.com).
2023 NFL Draft: The top 9 safeties
2023 NFL Draft: The top 11 cornerbacks
2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 linebackers
2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 interior defensive linemen
2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 edge defenders
2023 NFL Draft: The top 5 offensive tackles
2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 interior offensive linemen
2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 tight ends
2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 receivers
1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Height: 6’3″ (54th percentile) Weight: 214 (25th)
40-Yard Dash: N/A
10-Yard Split: N/A
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: N/A
Broad Jump: N/A
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Wingspan: N/A
Arm Length: 32⅝” (71st)
Hand Size: 10″ (80th)
Bio: Coleridge Bernard “C.J.” Stroud IV attended Rancho Cucamonga High School in Inland Empire, California. He and his family have faced serious adversity — his father was arrested in 2015 on counts of carjacking, kidnapping, robbery and misdemeanor sexual battery, and is currently serving a 38-year sentence at Folsom State Prison. Stroud and his three siblings experienced financial hardship, but that didn’t keep Stroud, who grew up without the benefits of elite quarterback coaching, from playing on the varsity team all four years. He earned U.S. Army All-America honors, and was also Rancho Cucamonga’s starting shooting guard.
A four-star recruit, Stroud found the college offers slow to come in until he won Most Valuable Player at the 7-on-7 The Opening tournament in July, 2019. Julian Fleming and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, two receivers on Stroud’s team there who had already committed to Ohio State, put in good words for him, and Stroud chose the Buckeyes over Georgia in the end. In two seasons as Ohio State’s starting quarterback, Stroud completed 574 of 833 attempts for 8,108 yards, 85 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 128.1. He also ran 80 times for 136 yards and a touchdown.
Stat to Know: When throwing outside the pocket in 2022, Stroud completed 39 of 69 passes for 473 yards, 311 air yards, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 117.3.
Strengths: Stroud had an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 72.8% last season (PFF’s metric which totals the rate of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops / aimed), and his ball placement is the best in this class of quarterbacks. PFF also has Stroud’s 26.7% rate of perfectly-placed passes as the best among FBS quarterbacks since 2021. Stroud is mechanically tied together from his feet to his delivery, and you don’t often see him just scorch one in there that’s wildly off-target. He has eminent big-play potential with a very high floor when it comes to placement and accuracy.
We saw that ball placement against Georgia in the College Football Semifinal in a different way, of course — all of a sudden, Stroud was effectively and efficiently mobile to a level that convinces you that, though you didn’t see it a lot on tape before that game, he’s clearly refined it to a high level. This 31-yard roll-right touchdown pass to Marvin Harrison Jr., in which Stroud is basically calling his shot outside of structure, is a throw not a lot of NFL quarterbacks can make.
Weaknesses: There is a narrative about Ohio State’s offense which states that their quarterbacks benefit greatly from a lack of pressure, and from receivers just standing open all over the place. It would be a mistake to put too many of Stroud’s positive plays on that and ignore what he brings to them, but there are also times when the combination of pressure and muddy pictures downfield can lead to calamity. This interception against Michigan is one such example, and it’s especially worrisome because a guy with Stroud’s arm talent should have easily hit tight end Cade Stover right up the middle on the inside of 3×1.
And while Stroud can throw on the move, he does lose velocity at times when he does so, and his decision-making reduces in scope. This pick against Iowa was particularly ugly.
Conclusion: Stroud’s wildly divergent numbers against different types of pressure — he threw 21 touchdowns to two interceptions when blitzed, and six touchdowns to two interceptions when actually pressured — tells you a few things about where he is now in his timeline. Yes, he had the benefit of a ridiculous offensive line and first-round receivers all over the place, but we also need to avoid taking away too much from Stroud himself. We also need to avoid scouting the helmet. Ohio State’s history of quarterbacks moving onto the NFL is startlingly bad for such a prominent school, but Stroud has more than enough on the ball as a pro-style quarterback to make the transition fairly seamless.
It’s also important to re-emphasize how refined Stroud is as a quarterback despite a relative lack of help from a performance coaching perspective, and a horrific family situation to transcend. These things don’t show up on tape, but they do matter. A lot.
NFL Comparison: Sam Bradford. We’re talking about the Bradford who would light up NFL fields occasionally with good-not-great velocity, easy movement, and ridiculous ball placement, not the Bradford who unfortunately couldn’t stay healthy. The No. 1 overall pick in the
2. Bryce Young, Alabama
Height: 5′ 10⅛” (1st percentile) Weight: 204 (6th)
40-Yard Dash: N/A
10-Yard Split: N/A
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: N/A
Broad Jump: N/A
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Wingspan:
Arm Length: 30½” (10th)
Hand Size: 9¾” (61st)
Bio: Young, who started working with quarterback coaches in the sixth grade, stated his high school career at L.A. Cathedral, transferring to national powerhouse Mater Dei in Pasadena, California in his junior season, becoming the first Black quarterback in school history. He is the third Mater Dei alum to win the Heisman Trophy, joining John Huarte (1964) and Matt Leinart (2004). As a senior, he won California Gatorade Player of the Year, USA Today Offensive Player of the Year and the Most Valuable Player award for his conference.
Young was a five-star recruit and the second-highest player in his class behind defensive lineman Bryan Bresee, who chose Clemson. Young first committed to USC (verbally), but when Steve Sarkisian became Alabama’s offensive coordinator, he was able to convince Young to make Alabama his home. In three seasons with Alabama, including the last two as the tea’s starting quarterback following Mac Jones’ NFL graduation, Young completed 623 of 952 passes for 8,341 yards, 80 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He also gained 162 yards and scored seven touchdowns on 139 rushing attempts.
Stat to Know: Against six or more pass-rushers in 2022, Young completed 20 of 34 passes for 318 yards, 146 air yards, 12 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 129.7. As they say, if you come at the king, you’d best not miss.
Strengths: Why is Young so effective against the blitz? He has his own version of what Patrick Mahomes has developed to an alien degree — an instinctual feel for where people are in the pocket, and how to get out of it to make the big play. That’s how he can make ridiculous scramble drill throws like this one against LSU.
Mahomes-ish pic.twitter.com/4UFkL32l32
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 23, 2023
One reason the ball just explodes off Young’s hand is that he’s generally mechanically integrated — everything works together for the optimal result. And here’s where his throwing height — where the ball comes out — is crucial. Young doesn’t really have any weird stuff in his windup that would affect his process. He has a compact, quick, overhand delivery, and though he can adjust his arm angles, that’s the default setting, as it should be.
When throwing directly over the middle in 2022, Young completed 63 of 90 passes for 839 yards, 340 air yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 115.9. It’s the kind of thing that isn’t a problem for shorter quarterbacks until it is, and in Young’s case, it hasn’t been yet.
This 53-yard pass to Isaiah Bond against Arkansas showed not only how Young could navigate a cross blitz, but also how well he moves to the open spots of the line to see open targets. This is Young moving up in the pocket, and throwing a 49-air yard dart.
Moving to the open lane is an adaptative strategy adopted by any great shorter quarterback from Fran Tarkenton to Drew Brees to Russell Wilson. Young has perfected it, because he has had to.
There’s also the issue of defenders getting right in his face — well, how does he do when some giant dude beats his blocker and prevents Young from seeing things as he would like to? Ask Kansas State defensive lineman Jaylen Pickle, who swore he had Young dead to rights, and had to watch helplessly as Young threw this 47-yard bomb to receiver Jermaine Burton.
Weaknesses: Like a lot of young quarterbacks, Young will occasionally fixate on a target to his detriment — on this interception against Auburn, he had tight end Cameron Latu in his sights, but Latu was pressed out of the route by linebacker Owen Pappoe. Young needs to reset when these things happen and avoid burning that throw in there regardless.
And as great as Young is on the move, that also leads at times to needless freneticism in and out of the pocket. There’s a point when Young started to speed the clock in his head, and that’s where he can start to make mistakes in both reading and accuracy.
Conclusion: Young is a modern-day outlier from a height and weight perspective, but he hasn’t suffered injuries because of it, and his adaptive strategies to overcome it are well-placed on his tape. Regardless of those physical concerns, Young is an ideal point guard in a movement-based offense in which he can both get around in the pocket and leave the pocket to make big plays as a passer. That said, teams will want him for what he offers above the neck — he comes into the NFL with a pro-level sense of how to run an offense, and if you can get past the size thing (which I suspect a lot of teams have already done), he’s got just about everything else you want at the game’s most important position.
NFL Comparison: Deshaun Watson. Of course, we’re talking about Watson on the field ONLY, and Watson before his off-field stuff affected how things go on the field. When Watson was at his best in his first four seasons, he was running total NFL offenses to a very high degree, and his relatively slight stature (6-foot 2, 215 pounds) didn’t factor into it. It’s tough to remember that Deshaun Watson, but if you can, you can superimpose a lot of what that Deshaun Watson did on the field at a very high level.
3. Anthony Richardson, Florida
Height: 6′ 3¾” (66th percentile) Weight: 244 (96th)
40-Yard Dash: 4.43 (98th)
10-Yard Split: 1.53 (96th)
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: 40½” (99th)
Broad Jump: 129″ (99th)
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Wingspan: N/A
Arm Length: 32¾” (75th)
Hand Size: 10½” (95th)
Bio: A four-star recruit out of Eastside High in Gainesville, Florida, Richardson finished his high-school time with 41 rushing touchdowns and 37 passing touchdowns, making him a four-star recruit, and the No. 1 quarterback in the state. Dan Mullen at Florida first offered Richardson a scholarship in his sophomore year in 2018, and Richardson stuck with the Gators despite an ever-increasing list of interested schools including Michigan, Georgia, and Penn State. Richardson was an All-SEC Freshman in 2020, and Emory Jones’ backup in 2021 with a few explosive plays to his credit in 2021.
In 2022, his one season as a starting quarterback in college, Richardson completed 175 of 330 passes for 2,553 yards, 17 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 84.3. He also gained 654 yards and scored nine touchdowns on 103 rushing attempts.
Stat to Know: In Weeks 7-13 of the 2022 season, Richardson completed 96 of 186 passes for 1,375 yards, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 92.9. The improvement over time wasn’t generational, but it was obvious.
Strengths: Let’s start with the measurables, which are absolutely stupid.
Athletically, Anthony Richardson compares favorably to Cam Newton… and Khalil Mack. pic.twitter.com/fefAUrBJoa
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 23, 2023
Richardson completed 26 of 64 passes of 20 or more air yards last season, and because his velocity is truly special, he has an ease with the deep ball that will show up on Sundays just as well as it did on Saturdays. This 51-yard pass to receiver Justin Shorter against LSU last season is about as indefensible as it gets. There isn’t any area of the field that’s safe from his deep ball.
Richardson is just as impossible to deal with as a runner; this 60-yard scamper against Texas A&M shows how easily he can break free and just beat everybody downfield. Putting him in a heavy RPO offense should present similar nightmares at times for NFL defenses.
Last season when under pressure, Richardson completed 41 of 108 passes for 593 yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 66.6. He was even better when blitzed — 59 of 129 for 890 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 79.9. He’s as big, strong, and athletic as a lot of the edge-rushers coming after him, and with that easy velocity, he can throw it on a rope even when his mechanics are affected by defenders in his face.
Weaknesses: When Richardson throws from a solid base, he’s fine. But there are too many times when he gets cute with his mechanics, and that can be a problem. Here against Vanderbilt in Week 12, he’s got receiver Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman beating cornerback Tyson Russell downfield. Richardson still has a relatively clean pocket when he throws the ball, but because he narrowed his base when he threw the ball, the pass was wildly offline.
Against USF in Week 3, Richardson had receiver Ricky Pearsall running an intermediate crosser on a switch release from left to right. Richardson actually did a nice job of looking the safety off to his right, but when he re-focused over the middle, he committed two cardinal sins: He threw Pearsall late and closed through the coverage, and he failed to account for linebacker Dwayne Boyles, who was right where Richardson was intending to throw.
Richardson has the kind of arm strength most quarterbacks would envy, but it didn’t always transfer to arm talent. On this interception against Eastern Washington in Week 6, he tried to feather a deep throw to Xzavier Henderson on a seam route. Two issues here: There wasn’t enough velocity on the throw to allow Henderson to release from quadruple coverage… and Richardson was throwing into quadruple coverage in the first place when he had Justin Shorter wide-ass open on the intermediate crosser. This is where Henderson is the clear-out guy. Shorter is the target, and you thank the football gods for such an easy opportunity.
Also: You’re up 35-3 at the start of the second half. Take the profit, man.
Conclusion: Bult like an edge-rusher, runs like a track star, and throws the ball right out of the building… though Richardson is still in need of development as a pure quarterback, he brings a toolkit to the position that we’ve never really seen at the NFL level. For that reason alone, he’ll be highly discussed in every building, and highly regarded in most of them. If he is able to reach any part of his ceiling, Richardson will be a most estimable weapon at the next level. If he’s able to hit it all? It’s hard to imagine what he’ll be, but it will be amazing to watch.
NFL Comparison: Colin Kaepernick. The comps to Cam Newton are widespread and understandable, but Newton came out of college with a more refined sense of touch and differing velocities. Kaepernick, who presented an equivalent running threat in his prime as an NFL quarterback, was also a 95-MPH pitcher at one time, and just about everything was a fastball with Kaepernick when he had a football in his hand. But when Kaepernick had it going on, he destroyed defenses with his running ability, and those fastballs had a lot of opponents on edge more often than not.
4. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Height: 6′ 3⅛” (63rd percentile) Weight: 217 (34th)
40-Yard Dash: N/A
10-Yard Split: N/A
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: N/A
Broad Jump: N/A
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Wingspan: N/A
Arm Length: 33″ (81st)
Hand Size: 10½” (95th)
Bio: A four-star recruit out of Dudley High School in Greensboro, North Carolina, Hooker chose Virginia Tech over Notre Dame, among other schools. After three seasons on the field with the Hokies, Hooker graduated in December 2020 with a degree in public relations, and went looking for a new home in the transfer portal. He chose Tennessee over Ohio State and Colorado, among other schools. In his collegiate career, Hooker completed 633 of 951 passes for 8,982 80 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 119.7. He also gained 2,079 yards and scored 25 touchdowns on 517 rushing attempts.
Hooker was off to a torrid start in 2022, completing 229 of 331 passes for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 123.9 before suffering a torn ACL against South Carolina.
Stat to Know: The NFL classifies explosive passing plays as those plays gaining 16 yards or more, and when throwing passes of 16 or more air yards dead over the middle in 2022, Hooker completed seven of 14 passes for 171 yards, 134 air yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 134.2.
How did C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, the consensus top two quarterbacks in this class, fare on such passes in 2022?
Stroud: 12 completions in 23 attempts for 391 yards, 270 air yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 97.6.
Young: Two completions in 11 attempts for 63 yards, 58 air yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 50.9.
Now, it’s time to look at the nature of those throws in Hooker’s case.
Strengths: When you’re evaluating Hooker as an NFL prospect, you absolutely have to take his college offense into account. The Vols were stretching defenses horizontally and vertically to an extreme degree, and that gave Hooker a lot of easy, defined openings. So then, you have to separate the transferable traits from an offense that isn’t 100% transferable.
When it comes to not only making tight-window throws over the middle, but also reading his receivers, I like this 14-yard completion to Ramel Keyton against South Carolina in Hooker’s final college game. He started by looking the deep safety off to the other side of the field, read the outside front-side receiver as an unfavorable look, and hit Keyton in stride where the receiver could get the ball, and the defender couldn’t.
And on this 43-yard pass to Keyton against Florida in Week 4, Hooker had to wait for his receiver to get any separation from cornerback Jason Marshall Jr., who was making that pretty tough. The solution was to get the ball past Marshall at the right time, which Hooker did.
On this 78-yard completion to Jalin Hyatt against Alabama in Week 7, was Hooker assisted by Hyatt’s preposterous downfield speed? Sure. Did he also make a stick throw to his target between two converging defenders with timing and placement? It kinda looks like he did.
This 28-yard touchdown pass to Cedric Tillman against Pitt in Week 2 wasn’t over the middle, but I think it presented another example of Hooker reading the situation well and capitalizing when the opportunity arose. Pitt clogged the middle of the field here, so Hooker’s best option was to wait for Tillman to get open against fairly good lockdown coverage to the boundary. This he did, while stepping up in the pocket to give himself the needed time for everything to play out.
I think there are enough examples of Hooker making the kinds of NFL throws required to strike a balance between what he did in college, and what he’ll be expected to do at the next level.
Weaknesses: Hooker’s passing efficiency is bumped up to a point not only by the nature of his offense, but by the fact that he took a lot of sacks (28 in 2022) when he wasn’t clear about what he was seeing. You have to manage the high completion rate and low mistake rate with that in mind. Here, South Carolina was showing a Cover-0 look which they spun to 2-deep post-snap, and Hooker froze a bit. He’s going to see stuff like this all the time in the NFL, so that’s a thing.
Overall. Hooker was good against two-deep coverages last season (69 of 100 for 947 yards, 742 air yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions), but he does need to work on adaptive strategies for when his receivers are pressed, and he has to re-set quickly. Georgia took his spread offense and spit it right back at him more often than not. Hooker completed 23 of 33 passes against the Bulldogs for 195 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, eight sacks (!!!), and a passer rating of 72.2 — by far the worst performance of his season. Hooker’s NFL coaches will need to work with him on getting the ball out in time to avoid disasters like this.
Conclusion: There are a few reasons for NFL shot-callers to debit Hooker in his NFL transition, starting with his age and injury status. And the advantages presented by Josh Heupel’s Air Raid/veer offense are undeniable, as is the fact that some elements of that offense are not transferable to the next level. On the other hand, Hooker is more than a quarterback propped up by a spread offense, there’s nothing he can do about his age, and reports indicate that he’s well on his way to a full recovery. There’s also the truth that a lot of NFL offenses have concepts not unfamiliar to what Hooker has run so efficiently, and however he got there, Hooker has become an NFL-ready quarterback in just as many ways as his detractors will say he is not.
NFL Comparison: Geno Smith. It took Smith a long time to succeed at the NFL level for multiple reasons, but when he finally caught on all the way with the Seahawks, he combined athleticism, accuracy, velocity to the second and third levels, and leadership attributes to make himself into a franchise quarterback. Smith also had to adjust to the NFL from his college offense, and while that’s also the case for Hooker to a point, Hooker has already shown enough to make his NFL graduation relatively seamless.
5. Will Levis, Kentucky
Height: 6′ 3⅞” (67th percentile) Weight: 229 (75th)
40-Yard Dash: N/A
10-Yard Split: N/A
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: 34″ (79th)
Broad Jump: 124″ (95th)
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Wingspan: N/A
Arm Length: 32″ (48th)
Hand Size: 10⅝” (96th)
Bio: An alum of Xavier High School in Madison, Connecticut, Levis was a three-star recruit who didn’t start getting serious offers until he was named Football Rating MVP at Nike’s The Opening in 2017. He committed immediately to Penn State when he got that offer, and graduated in three years with a degree in finance. He struggled to get starting reps and transferred to Kentucky in 2021. In four collegiate seasons, Levis completed 478 of 739 passes for 5,880 yards, 46 touchdowns, 25 interceptions, and a passer rating of 95.8. He also gained 742 yards and scored 17 touchdowns on 312 rushing attempts.
Stat to Know: We are all up in our feelings comparing Levis to Josh Allen apparently, so consider this: In Levis’ final collegiate season, he completed 16 of 39 deep passes for 541 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 75.5.
In 2017, Allen ‘s final collegiate season, he completed 15 of 46 passes of 20 or more air yards for 441 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 90.7.
If you’re going to compare Levis now to Allen then, you’d better go looking for those seven missing deep touchdowns.
Strengths: You’re going to hear a lot about Levis’ relatively mediocre supporting cast when excusing his inefficiencies, and that does show up on tape. If you’re going to throw deep to the boundary, you need at least one receiver who can beat tight boundary coverage.
There were times when Levis’ targets could do that, as seen by receiver Barion Brown on this 31-yard completion against Georgia cornerback Kelee Ringo. Browning did a really nice job of separating at the right moment to get the ball Ringo couldn’t.
And here’s Levis throwing to Brown against Ringo from the slot in that same game — this time, for a 42-yard gain. One might call this an underthrow to a point — I tend to think that if Anthony Richardson was throwing this ball, it might have been a touchdown — but we’re splitting hairs there.
Now, there are times when timing, touch, and accuracy come together for Levis, and you can see where all the love comes from. This 47-yard guided missile to Brown over two defenders is a great throw, no matter who’s throwing it. Levis had to move in the pocket and reset to make the throw, and he did so beautifully.
Weaknesses: The problem with the throw we just saw is that Levis is too inconsistent in putting the timing/accuracy/velocity equation together. He will veer towards arm talent, and then regress back to arm strength, where you’re just not sure what you’re going to get. As this interception against Youngtown State showed, Levis struggles with the combination of these three aspects too often.
Levis can throw to any area of the field in which his receivers are decidedly open, and he will make the occasional big-time throw with outstanding velocity. But the finishing touches that make great NFL deep-ball throwers are not on display nearly enough.
One thing Levis will absolutely have to fix if he’s ever to become a top-tier NFL quarterback is a first-read fixation that got him in trouble too often at the NCAA level. His throwing windows are about to be reduced exponentially, so the processes that lead to plays like this just can’t happen. On this end zone incompletion against Vanderbilt, Levis followed tight end Jordan Dingle through his route, and when that was closed, he didn’t avail himself of any other options. Had he seen Brown’s backside crosser in time, it was open for a touchdown. Alas.
This end zone interception against Georgia had Kelee Ringo retorting for other sins in that game. Here, Levis started off reading Dingle on a similar route — taking the linebacker up the seam — and before that progressed, Levis threw to his outside read, the aforementioned Mr. Brown. Problem was, Ringo and safety David Daniel-Sisavanh were all over that, and it was obvious as the routes developed.
This interception against Tennessee had Levis giving perfunctory looks to his front-side reads (Brown and Tayvion Robinson), then traveling to the back side and making this inexplicable throw to Dane Key — which was picked off by cornerback Brandon Turnage. This was a third-and-seven situation, so maybe Levis thought he had to nuke one in there, but he also had a metric ton of room to run to that side, so… I dunno.
Levis isn’t doing himself any favors with these random plays predicated on a developmental ability to see — and react to — the entire route palette. His NFL coaches will have to put in work to get him where he needs to be in that regard.
If we want to label Levis a “winner” or a “finisher” as opposed to a “gritty, tough guy,” it might behoove us to look at his red zone performance in the 2022 season. And that, my friends, is a problem. Levis threw 14 touchdown passes from the opposing 19-yard line and in, but he also led the nation with four interceptions in such instances, and he tied with North Carolina’s Drake Maye and San Jose State’s Chevan Cordeiro for the nation’s most red zone sacks, with 10.
We’ve already shown a couple examples, but here’s another red zone interception against Miami of Ohio in which Levis has tight end Keaton Upshaw open to the boundary on a well-executed pick play, and Levis can’t time it up. If he feathers the pass to Upshaw earlier, or zings it to Upshaw to make up for the elapse of time, maybe defensive back Eli Blakey doesn’t have an easy turnover. Upshaw’s WTF reaction is one that I suspect a lot of people would have at the end of this play.
This sack at the Georgia 16-yard line with 4:51 left in the fourth quarter of that game was notable because cornerback Javon Bullard got the takedown with a blitz from the slot. Rule No. 1 when you have a blitzer from an area of the field is to check for easy openings to the area of the field vacated by said blitzer. Dane Key had sone free real estate in the left slot, and if Levis had simply capitalized, maybe that’s a touchdown.
At this point in his progression, Levis’s slow reading ability, and his inability to capitalize on easy stuff in compressed areas, could be fatal at the NFL level. Again.., yes, he has tools, but his NFL coaches have their work cut out for them.
Conclusion: My evaluative process generally has me watching more tape of players who give me a negative hit right off the bat than the guys who just wow me. Because with those negative examples, I want to make sure I didn’t start with an atypically bad game. You don’t want to miss on a prospect because your evaluation started out on the wrong foot. So, I’ve watched a crapton of Will Levis, and I’m not any more sure of his NFL potential now than when I started. There are absolutely examples of Levis putting his athletic traits together in a compelling package, but they didn’t happen nearly enough, especially repeatedly enough, for me to be confident in his NFL future. Levis will need to be with NFL coaches who define things for him on every down. There’s nothing wrong with that per se — it’s not a professional death sentence. But when I weigh Levis’ experience against the rawness that’s still obvious… it’s a tough go.
NFL Comparison: Carson Wentz. Like Wentz, who was selected with the second overall pick in the 2016 draft out of North Dakota State, Levis brings a compelling bag of attributes that look good on their face until you dig underneath. Wentz has played at an MVP level when he operated very specifically in a defined offense with the Eagles, and he’s been mystery meat ever since in a variety of systems. Quarterbacks like Wentz and Levis, whose athletic traits pop off the tape, are always attractive until it’s time to successfully operate outside of structure, and then you just never know what you’re going to get. Not a great thing for the game’s most important position.
